As everyone has heard, Jake Peavy is on the market. As as everyone has heard, he wants to stay in the NL (there are conflicting reports that he’d be willing to go to certain AL teams, such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers).
As the current situation stands in San Diego, I can’t blame them for putting him up for auction. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and his value could be at it’s highest.
Of course, this situation is a little different than other pitchers being dealt. First off, he’s got quite a while before he’s a free agent; it’s not like Johan Santana being traded last year. Also, his contract is also not incredibly bad; it’s actually a bargain compared to other top pitchers. Finally, he’s in the prime of his career; he’ll be 28 next May.
So what does San Diego have to gain?
The Contract
Here’s the financial terms of the deal:
’09: $8MM, ’10: $15MM, ’11: $16MM, ’12: $17MM, ’13: $22MM club option or $4MM buyout
He gets bonuses as well:
MVP or Cy Young – $100k ($50k for second and $25k for third)
Gold Glove – $50k
All Star Starter – $50k
All Star Selection – $25k
WS MVP – $100k
LCS MVP – $50k
He has a full no trade clause for ’09 and ’10. It reduces to 14 teams in ’11, then to 8 in ’12.
San Diego has stated that they are looking to trim payroll. While $8MM this year doesn’t seem like much, the salary almost doubles the following year. Most people don’t think about that.
They also can move another contract with Peavy. The name that keeps popping up is Khalil Greene. He’s owed $6.5MM next year; that’s quite a bit for a subpar player that can’t keep healthy.
The Bounty
San Diego has one of the weaker farm systems in baseball. They have very little talent that is close to being available. This is the best way to acquire cheap, young talent.
The Padres have stated they want at least a MLB-ready centerfielder and a few young pitchers. They also need help at catcher.
The Pitcher Himself
I know anyone who reads this knows who Peavy is and his worth. You’ll also know that he’s had some injury problems in the past.
Now, I don’t think potential injuries should scare a team away. I do think the Padres are worried and that could be one of the reasons he’s available.
His numbers each year have gotten better, except this year his stikeouts took a pretty big dip – possibly a warning sign, but his other numbers didn’t change much.
Now, he does have the full no trade clause this season, so any team trying to get him will need to give him additional compensation. It could be expected that his option will have to be picked up. Another thing he’s stated is he wants a full no trade clause for the rest of the deal.
The Potential Trade Partners
The Braves – Peavy is a Georgia native and the Braves like to have Georgians, so this shouldn’t be surprising. They have some good center field prospects; none of them are really that close to being ready. The Braves are also the best at finding young pitching.
The Cubs – Peavy has said the Cubs are a team he’d go to. Any deal would have to include Felix Pie, although Jim Hendry has said he will be with the team at the begining of the next season. They also have a few young pitchers that could entice the Padres.
The Astros – Another club that Peavy has endorsed, but their system is pretty bare. I don’t see them dealing Hunter Pence, as he’s the guy that’s closest to what the Padres want.
The Dodgers – While Peavy would like to go here, the Padres are going to want more to move him in the division. They’ll ask for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw as a starting point.
The Cardinals – The Redbirds have already called, but apparently nothing is in the works. Any deal would have to include Colby Rasmus, which the Cardinals have been reluctant to talk about. Another name mentioned has been Chris Perez; the Padres will need some to take over for Trevor Hoffman.
The Brewers – While Peavy hasn’t mentioned them, they are in the same area as some of the other teams. The Brewers are also losing both of their aces. They have a strong farm system and some money to spend, so I wouldn’t rule them out.
Most other NL teams will inquire, but I consider these the favorites. As for the AL teams, these 4 have been mentioned:
The Red Sox – While Boston would love to acquire the ace and block him from the Yankees, they won’t want to give up Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, or Jacoby Ellsbury.
The Yankees – Peavy has said that he’d want to avoid New York, but they are still a slight possibility. They’d move Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera in any deal.
The Angels – They have some pitching prospects to move, but I don’t see them having much as far as fielders the Padres would want.
The Rangers – Texas could easily move a catcher in any deal, but I don’t see Peavy wanting to pitch in this ballpark.
The Timeframe
The Padres are moving fast, as they don’t want to wait for CC Sabathia to sign first. They’ll get the most for Peavy the sooner they trade him. Expect it to be done before the winter meetings.
