Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers: Give It A Chance

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With the recent announcement of Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers fight, Strikeforce has finally unveiled the plan to showcase its prized acquisition:  The former PRIDE FC champion and the consensus number one heavyweight in the world, Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko.

While the date and location of the bout has yet to be finalized, Emelianenko will test his craft against the fast-rising knockout machine, Brett “The Grim” Rogers.

Along with Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum, Brett Rogers is one of the three heavyweights in Strikeforce who can challenge Fedor Emelianenko.

Admittedly, the shallow talent pool in Strikeforce’s heavyweight division leaves the promotion with a dearth of compelling match-ups.   Unless Strikeforce can sign other top-caliber heavyweights, Fedor will run into a competitive void in the promotion after he fights these three.

Despite the uncertain competitive climate of Strikeforce’s heavyweight division and the risk of strategic blunder, Emelianenko vs. Rogers is more than a simple showcase of the most accomplished heavyweight in the world:  This high-profile fight also serves as a plum opportunity for Strikeforce’s potential future star to accelerate his career.

Rogers currently boasts a perfect 10-0 record with ten stoppages (nine TKO’s and one submission via punches).  His recent, 22-second destruction of the former UFC Heavyweight champion, Andrei Arlovski, has catapulted himself to the upper echelon of the heavyweight division.

His emphatic victory over Arlovski, as well as his previous exposure on CBS, makes him a recognizable figure among the mainstream audience.

Having fought three times for the now defunct Elite XC, he has shown the CBS audience a glimpse of his fearsome power.  Also, a verbal spat turned near-altercation with Kimbo Slice during the post-fight press conference following an Elite XC event has garnered him infamy.

A star on the rise with the potential to become a flagship fighter for Strikeforce in near future, Rogers faces a lofty challenge against the reigning heavyweight king of the world.

While Rogers is a promising albeit untested prospect, he has nothing to lose by fighting Fedor.

A loss will blemish his perfect record, but he will not suffer any shame in losing to the number one heavyweight in the world:  It will serve as a great learning opportunity for him, and giving Fedor a tough fight will most certainly boost his stock and confidence.

Needless to say, pulling off the story-of-the-year upset victory will give him the acclaim most fighters strive to achieve throughout their entire careers and etch his name in the mantle of MMA.

Given his recognition and the tremendous upsides in the fight, Rogers presents the most intriguing match-up for Emelianenko.  Also, his relative inexperience belies the surprising competitiveness he will enjoy.

The other potential challengers, Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum, are far more battle-tested than Rogers, boasting top notch experience in world class organizations such as PRIDE and UFC; however, their lack of recognition among the casual fans and lackluster match-up against Emelianenko make them tough sell as challengers to the heavyweight king of the world.

Overeem’s kickboxing prowess can be a potent weapon against Emelianenko, as Andre Arlovski frustrated Emelianenko with technical striking before his mental lapse cost him the bout at Affliction:  Day of Reckoning.

Yet, Overeem has suffered numerous TKO losses while fighting as a light heavyweight, and his visible loss of speed upon moving up to heavyweight diminish his competitiveness.

Furthermore, his capricious disposition and recent bouts of mishaps make him a liability for the organization.

He has yet to make his first defense of Strikeforce heavyweight title nearly two years after being crowned. Also, withdrawing from scheduled fights at recent Strikeforce events and announcing to fight this fall in K-1, Overeem now cannot be counted upon to even show up to fight.

Werdum, on the other hand, is an accomplished Brazilian jiu jitsu practitioner who has fought in PRIDE and UFC.  While his submission savvy is a strong asset, the threat it poses against Emelianenko is underwhelming.

Though Rogers pales Emelianenko in experience and pedigree, he possesses the size, power, and explosiveness to put on a tough fight.

Granted, his one-dimensional style puts him at a significant disadvantage against Emelianenko, who has defeated fighters of every stylistic stripe.

Nevertheless, a mere “puncher’s chance” does not do justice to the threat Rogers poses with his power.

Over the course of his career, Emelianenko has survived some of his fights having absorbed punishing blows.  Though a hard-hitter, the “Last Emperor” has never been the most technical striker, particularly in terms of defense.

Heavyweight sluggers such as Kazuyuki Fujita and Mirko Cro Cop have inflicted palpable damage on Fedor.  Fedor’s cast-iron chin and unflappability in the face of adversity have helped him persevere en route to victories time and time again.  He has also shown the willingness to absorb strikes to look for submission, as he did against Hong-Man Choi.

That said, with over thirty fights in his career, even the heavyweight king of the world is bound to experience the toll of the cumulative wear and tear.

While he has yet to show signs of punch drunkenness, the willingness to weather punishment not only jeopardizes his viability as a fighter — against a powerful striker like Rogers, it will be a dangerous proposition.

In addition, his technical lapses, such as the lack of head movement and lack of lateral mobility on feet will make him vulnerable against Rogers’ aggression and forward momentum.

Another intriguing facet of the fight is that Emelianenko will be fighting in the cage for the first time.  A cage introduces a tactical element that is nonexistent in a ring.

Notably, a fighter can corner his opponent against the cage.  With his opponent trapped against the cage, he can wage a battle of attrition from the clinch position a la MMA legend, Randy Couture.

With his size advantage and strength, Rogers can try to bully Emelianenko against the cage to nullify his submission savvy and force him into an unfamiliar territory.

Even with significant odds stacked against him, Rogers, unlike Overeem and Werdum, is a legitimate threat to Fedor Emelianenko.  His potential as a future star of Strikeforce can also inspire the underdog fervor among the fans.

While many have legitimate doubts about the future of Strikeforce’s heavyweight division and the aftermath of the Emelianenko v. Rogers bout, we can all try to tune them out and simply enjoy the fight.

In terms of staging the best possible fight under the current circumstance, Strikeforce has a winner in Fedor Emelianenko v. Brett Rogers.