2 new teams in the top 10…one that should be there and one that would have been expected to be there all season.
These aren’t your typical rankings; I look at record, run differential, and farm system. I weigh the scores on all 3; record makes up half the score, the run differential makes up a third of the score, and a sixth of the score is from farm system.
For Run Differential, I use the Pythagorean Theorem formulated by Bill James to see what a teams record should be; you can predict how well a team should be playing by this. In theory, a team should be in about the same range for their Pythagorean Record as their true record.
Rank | Team | Record | Pythagorean | System | Total | Last Week | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | TB Rays | 30 | 30 | 27 | 59 | 1 | |
I expect them to be even better now that dead weight Pat Burrell is gone. | |||||||
2 | NY Yankees | 29 | 29 | 6 | 50 | 4 | |
Back to #2 even with Javier Vazquez pitching like he was an little leaguer. | |||||||
3 | Minnesota Twins | 26 | 27 | 14 | 49 | 6 | |
Being led by one of the most well rounded rotations in baseball, the Twins keep rolling. | |||||||
4 | San Diego Padres | 28 | 28 | 5 | 48 | 5 | |
The Padres are looking legit after taking 2 of 3 from the Cardinals. | |||||||
5 | Cincinnati Reds | 27 | 18 | 25 | 47 | 14 | |
First place in NL Central, even though their run differential doesn’t support the strong play. | |||||||
6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 26 | 8 | 45 | 2 | |
Did anyone expect a resurgence from Jose Contreras; it seems like he does this every couple of years. | |||||||
7 | Toronto Blue Jays | 21 | 23 | 21 | 43 | 3 | |
It’s tough to be a Jay’s fan; they are playing great ball, but are stuck in third. | |||||||
8 | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 22 | 29 | 41 | 10 | |
The Braves have put it together recently and have their sights set on the Phillies. | |||||||
9 | STL Cardinals | 24 | 25 | 1 | 41 | 8 | |
2 injuries to one of the top rotations in baseball have the Cardinals looking at options. | |||||||
10 | Boston Red Sox | 20 | 17 | 28 | 41 | 15 | |
They are starting to look like the team everyone expected. | |||||||
11 | LA Dodgers | 22 | 15 | 23 | 40 | 12 | |
Oswalt’s name is popping up here, since their rotation needs help. | |||||||
12 | Texas Rangers | 23 | 16 | 9 | 37 | 11 | |
Bankruptcy can’t hold this team back right now; they think they might be able to pull of a move or 2. | |||||||
13 | Colorado Rockies | 18 | 24 | 2 | 35 | 16 | |
They have been pretty unlucky, but have to feel good running Ubaldo Jimenez out every 5 days. | |||||||
14 | Florida Marlins | 13 | 19 | 24 | 34 | 9 | |
The Marlins are really struggling and Freddi Gonzalez could be on the hot seat. | |||||||
15 | Detroit Tigers | 19 | 14 | 15 | 33 | 7 | |
A solid second place in a weak division; not good enough to over take the Twins, but good enough to stay above every one else. | |||||||
16 | NY Mets | 15 | 21 | 12 | 33 | 18 | |
The Mets have really been up and down recently; if they could pull a deal for Oswalt, they’d be in good shape. | |||||||
17 | San Francisco Giants | 16 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 13 | |
The Giants have been jumped by the Dodgers and Rockies in the standings; they need Buster Posey now. | |||||||
18 | Washington Nationals | 12 | 11 | 20 | 26 | 17 | |
They are starting to fall off, but they are still better than this time last year; Strasburg in Mid-June should help. | |||||||
19 | Oakland Athletics | 14 | 12 | 11 | 26 | 21 | |
They are above .500, so that has to count for something. Ben Sheets hasn’t helped with that much though. | |||||||
20 | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 13 | 17 | 25 | 19 | |
Lou’s probably not going to be fired, since his contract is up at the end of the season. | |||||||
21 | KC Royals | 8 | 9 | 30 | 24 | 22 | |
Their strong farm system could help this team by the end of the year; they won’t be in contention, but they look much improved. | |||||||
22 | LA Angels | 10 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 20 | |
The loss of John Lackey is hurting this team, along with the disappearance of Scott Kazmir’s arm. | |||||||
23 | Chicago White Sox | 9 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 28 | |
It’s never going to happen, but you have to wonder if Ozzie could be on the hot seat. | |||||||
24 | Seattle Mariners | 4 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 25 | |
Cliff Lee could be on the move again, with the Mariners playing much worse than any one thought they would be. | |||||||
25 | Cleveland Indians | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 24 | |
They have a few trade chips here, but they’ll need a heathly Grady Sizemore to win (now or in the future). | |||||||
26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 7 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27 | |
Their formula for success may need to be called into question, as they are playing pretty bad for a second straight season. | |||||||
27 | Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 23 | |
They were considered one of the teams that would be in contention in the NL Central; instead they will be considered sellers. | |||||||
28 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 26 | |
I can’t figure out how they can win when their run differential is so bad. | |||||||
29 | Houston Astros | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 29 | |
The fire sale rumors are starting; can they get much for Oswalt and Berkman? | |||||||
30 | Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 30 | |
No surprise that they are still the worst team in the league (of course, most wouldn’t be surprised if Houston was either). |
If the playoffs started today…
Playoffs Based on Record | Playoffs Based of Run Differential | ||
Division | Team | Division | Team |
---|---|---|---|
AL East | Rays | AL East | Rays |
AL Central | Twins | AL Central | Twins |
AL West | Rangers | AL West | Rangers |
AL Wild Card | Yankees | AL Wild Card | Yankees |
NL East | Phillies | NL East | Phillies |
NL Central | Reds | NL Central | Cardinals |
NL West | Padres | NL West | Padres |
NL Wild Card | Cardinals | NL Wild Card | Rockies |