SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 2 PICKS
LAST SEASON ATS: 132-124
LAST SEASON LOCKS ATS: 32-19
WEEK 1 ATS: 6-10
WEEK 1 LOCKS ATS: 0-3
WEEK 1 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Tennessee over Oakland)
Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the new place on Inside Pulse for my NFL picks and prognostications.
Last season, I had a very good run that unfortunately did not carry over into Week 1 of 2010. On the bright side, at least I have plenty of time to make up ground and hopefully finish over .500 again this year.
I will also lock up 3 games every week just for fun, and hopefully I can climb out of the early hole I dug for myself last Sunday thanks to the Colts, Niners and Cowboys all tanking.
Hey, at least I picked the Chiefs (+4.5), Lions (+6.5), Steelers (+1.5) and Browns (+3.5) last week as underdog spread-beaters.
Without further ado, here are the spreads, my official picks and my final score prognostications for NFL Week 2:
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
Kansas City (+1.5) over CLEVELAND – I believed in the revamped Chiefs in Week 1 and they rewarded my faith against what is supposed to be a true AFC contender in the San Diego Chargers. I know it’s a different ballgame away from Arrowhead, but there’s no way I can’t jump on the Chiefs as road dogs against what should be a listless Browns team all season. Chiefs win 17-13
*LOCK IT UP: TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Pittsburgh – Last week the Dennis Dixon-led Steelers escaped in overtime against the Falcons to come out with a tough home win. Meanwhile, Tennessee steamrolled Oakland in what was the most popular head to head Survivor Pool pick last week (mine included). With the Titans already clicking on all cylinders, I will look for this to be a lockdown, locked up win for Chris Johnson and company. Titans win 31-20
CINCINNATI (+1.5) over Baltimore – The Ravens defense one-upped the Jets defense in what was a very poor offensive display on both sides. One offensive area where Baltimore did shine was in 3rd down conversions, where they simply torched the Jets all night. Now the Ravens find themselves in Cincinnati on short rest but with some momentum. With that said, the Bengals are a good team despite losing at New England, and while the Pats put up a ton of points to overmatch Cincy’s offensive weapons, I’m not sold on Baltimore being able to do enough on offense in this spot. Bengals win 19-16
DALLAS (-8.5) over Chicago – Dallas was supposed to march into Washington this past Monday and begin their Super Bowl run. I definitely should have seen that Redskins win coming, but I bought into the hype and paid for it. None of that matters this week, because Dallas is simply a superior team talent-wise than the Bears, who redefined the term “escaped-with-a-win” last week against the Lions. The only saving grace was that the Lions covered the spread thanks to a failed 2-point conversion that kept the score at 19-14, and again, none of that matters this week. Why? Because the Cowboys are better, and it’s way too early in the season for Dallas to completely fold. In the meantime, a Jay Cutler meltdown is possible every week. Cowboys win 21-10
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona – I am not comfortable with this game at all, and in fact it is my least favorite game to pick this week. Arizona could barely topple the Rams in Week 1, and I really don’t think Derek Anderson is going to be consistent on a weekly basis. How bad does that make Matt Leinart, anyway? Matt Ryan bounces back here, I think. Falcons win 13-6
Philadelphia (-3.5) over DETROIT – Does anyone else think this game became a lot easier to pick this week with Michael Vick (upgrade) and Shaun Hill (downgrade) as projected starters? Even if Stafford and Kolb shake off the cobwebs and play this week, Andy Reid is normally a maestro in “back-against-the-wall” situations, regardless of his horrible time management skills. And if the Eagles can’t upend the Lions here, they will be setting themselves up for an already-lost season with a full slate of division games remaining against three tough NFC East rivals. Eagles win 23-6
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami – The Vikings will be well rested following their Thursday night kickoff loss against the Saints, and that should be enough time to work out their offensive kinks. The Dolphins have been unimpressive so far since training camp, and they are saddled with their second straight road game after squeaking by against an inferior Buffalo squad up north. I think the Vikings will torch Miami in the first half, and then control the clock the rest of the way. Besides, Brett Favre won’t get incapacitated until around Week 10. Vikings win 31-17
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay – The Giants stung me last week when they beat the 7.5-point spread in their 31-18 route of the Panthers. It’s crazy to think that Carolina actually had one last chance to cover if they scored a touchdown to make the score 31-25, but there was no chance of that happening once Matt Moore got knocked out of the game. It’s not like Moore was that impressive before getting his bell rung against a dominant Giants defense, but with all that said Carolina is back home against Tampa this week and Moore has been tentatively cleared to play. I have a feeling the Panthers will run the ball as much as possible this week, and therefore all of this will result in a ground and pound home win in a very ugly contest that will be laden with turnovers and backfield tackles. Panthers win but it’s not a layup. Panthers win 10-6
*LOCK IT UP / H2H SURVIVOR PICK: GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Buffalo – With Ryan Grant injured and likely out for the season, Aaron Rodgers will have to carry the load for Green Bay as they make adjustments. The good news is that I project a huge day for the Packers’ passing attack in Week 2 against a Buffalo team that just might end up with the worst record in the league this season. This is a huge statement game by Green Bay, and they deliver the goods in their home opener. Packers win 38-3
OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis – It turned out that Oakland had no chance against Tennessee last week. The Raiders will be much tougher and their defense much more stout against Rookie QB Sam Bradford, who makes his first road start for the Rams in Oaktown on Sunday. Don’t sleep on the Raiders at home in a tightly contested win and close ATS cover. Raiders win 17-12
DENVER (-3.5) over Seattle – Let’s face it… Historically, Seattle is a very different team on the road, and Denver is a very different team at home. Will the Seahawks consistently put up 31 points every week? Are the Broncos going to quickly fall to 0-2? I sense a more balanced effort on both sides, and the pendulum will swing back in the Broncos favor in Week 2. Broncos win 28-24
*LOCK IT UP: New England (-1.5) over NY JETS – Forgetting my Jets fandom for a moment, the Jets offense looked awful on Monday night, and it won’t get any easier on short rest against a Patriots team that remained mostly quiet all summer long (barring one Tom Brady outburst) as the Jets ran their mouths on Hard Knocks and stole all of the preseason headlines in the process. Well, don’t look now, but the Jets could be on their way to a 0-2 start at the expense of the soon-to-be 2-0 Patriots. Book it. Patriots win 27-17
Jacksonville (+7.5) over SAN DIEGO – Kansas City showed they were for real with a Week 1 stunner of the Chargers. San Diego is back home and will try to regroup on the West Coast against a Jaguars team that withstood lightning delays in Florida and showed enough grit to beat the Broncos in a seesaw battle. The Chargers are not automatically going to win a ton of games because everyone says they will, and I think this will be way too close for comfort H2H, let alone ATS. Chargers win 24-20
WASHINGTON (+2.5) over Houston – I was blindsided by both the Redskins and the Texans last week, especially the Texans. Could this be the year Houston finally makes their mark in the AFC South? Not on the road, and not at Washington’s expense. Redskins win 24-21
Giants (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Last season, the Colts had the luxury of resting their players to prepare for the Playoffs and ultimately a Super Bowl run that saw them come up short against New Orleans. This year, I have a feeling that Peyton Manning and company will have to fight and scratch for every win and play a full 16-game schedule, as is evidenced by last week’s thrashing by the Texans. As for the Giants, they simply owned Carolina’s Offensive Line last week en route to a 31-18 drubbing of the Panthers. I am now a true believer in the Giants defensively, and on the other side of the ball Ahmad Bradshaw and Eli Manning will do more than enough to keep this one close against big brother Peyton. Colts scrape by on Sunday night. Colts win 30-28
MONDAY:
New Orleans (-4.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – I will not trust the Niners until they can prove that last week’s embarrassing loss was an aberration. Meanwhile, Drew Brees and the Saints will be playing this Monday Night matchup with a whopping 10+ days of rest between games. The much looser defending Super Bowl Champs win out west with a final tally that will seem closer on paper than it will be in the trenches. Saints win 20-14
That’s a wrap for this inaugural edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
