Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Last week, I said I was at a seasonal crossroads. Well, I must have picked the right fork in the road, because I came roaring back against the odds-making gods with a solidly posted 11-5 record ATS, a 2-1 record ATS in my locks of the week, and a head to head Survivor Picks win.
Before I move onto Week 12, I just want to say Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, including all of you who emailed me over the past few weeks either thanking or berating me for my picks!
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 11 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 11 ATS: 11-5
WEEK 11 LOCKS ATS: 2-1
WEEK 11 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Cowboys over Lions)
THIS SEASON ATS: 83-77
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 16-17
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
Baltimore (Week 7, Win)
Kansas City (Week 8, Win)
NY Jets (Week 9, Win)
NY Giants (Week 10, Loss)
Dallas (Week 11, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 12 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
THURSDAY FOOTBALL – THANKSGIVING THREE-PACK
*LOCK IT UP: New England (-6.5) over DETROIT – I am locking up all three of my Thanksgiving picks this week, starting with this one. The Patriots will be extremely focused here and I feel that if anyone is going to come out firing on all cylinders on a shortened holiday week, it will be Tom Brady. Not only that, but with the Jets playing the nightcap on Thursday, New England is going to make sure to keep the pressure on their AFC East archrivals. Patriots win 34-17
*LOCK IT UP: New Orleans (-2.5) over DALLAS – I know that the Cowboys are currently playing well and that they have historically done well as Thanksgiving hosts, but the Saints have simply been on fire and I just can’t go against the defending Super Bowl Champs against almost anyone right now. Also, I feel like we are getting a pretty low spread as an early holiday gift. Saints win 28-24
*LOCK IT UP: NY JETS (-8.5) over Cincinnati – The Jets have been escape artists over the past three weeks, winning two road games in overtime and then coming back to beat the Texans at home in the final minute on Sunday. I don’t know why, but my gut feeling here is that the Jets will surprise us all by blowing out the Bengals and giving themselves a nice statement victory. Jets win 31-14
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Tennessee – The Texans have lost two pure heartbreakers in a row, both on the road. However, they will be returning home on Sunday against a reeling Titans team who now has to figure out their quarterback position and quick. I like the Texans to rebound here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see them tank either. Texans win 28-20
Jacksonville (+8.5) over NY GIANTS – The Giants are averaging three turnovers per game this season, and last Monday they did everything they could to give the game away to the Eagles. I still don’t know why Eli Manning didn’t slide instead of dive headfirst and fumble when the game was still in play, and after that the Giants just completely folded. Meanwhile, the Jags have really shown that they can compete week in and week out, and I am very confident they can cover here even if they don’t win outright. Giants win a close one. Giants win 27-24
WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Minnesota – I have no confidence in the Vikings on the road, coaching change or not. Redskins take it. Redskins win 27-21
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over BUFFALO – The Bills have really shown some offensive firepower this season, even when they were losing every week. However, the Steelers defense really showed me something last week when limiting Oakland to 3 points, and I like that trend of containment to continue here. Steelers win 35-13
ATLANTA (-1.5) over Green Bay – I know Green Bay is a very solid team, but these Falcons have proven they can hang with anyone this season. Besides, does anyone want to go against Matt Ryan at home right now? Falcons win 24-20
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: CLEVELAND (-10.5) over Carolina – For those of you who still have a spotless Survivor Picks record in 2010, chances are you have used up all of the upper echelon teams. If that is the case, then look no further than the Cleveland Browns as a great pick to win head to head at home this week vs. the hapless Carolina Panthers. I’ll even take it even one step further and pick the Browns to cover the 10.5 points, too. Browns win 26-12
Kansas City (-0.5) over SEATTLE – Home field advantage or not, the Chiefs are just better than the Seahawks. I’m just going to stop now before I think too hard on this one. Chiefs win 33-23
OAKLAND (-2.5) over Miami – The Raiders killed me last week by getting blown out in Pittsburgh. With that said, I love them again here since Miami just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to compete with anyone right now. Raiders win 21-6
Philadelphia (-3.5) over CHICAGO – The Eagles played spotty football against the Giants and still won 27-17. They are just on the kind of roll that I don’t think the Bears can stop. Eagles win 29-21
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over BALTIMORE – I don’t understand the lack of respect that the Bucs are getting right now. But hey, I’ll take the points and run. Ravens win 24-23
St. Louis (+4.5) over DENVER – I know the Broncos are traditionally a good home team, but I love the Rams again as underdogs. It’s as if the oddsmakers haven’t caught onto the Rams’ resurgence back to competitive relevance just yet, which is perfectly fine with me. I sense an upset. Rams win 28-24
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over San Diego – This is an interesting matchup, especially with the Colts coming off a close loss to the Patriots and the Chargers on a short week after winning big against the Broncos. Peyton Manning will outgun Philip Rivers and the Colts will bounce back like they always do. Colts win 34-30
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
ARIZONA (+0.5) over San Francisco – This is my least favorite game of the week. Thanks NFC West. Cardinals win 20-17
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
Again, HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
See you next week – CB.
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