Well at least their main event didn’t fall apart. Strikeforce really tried to pull out all the stops for their yearend bonanza but, as is often the case in the arena that is MMA, last minute injuries got in the way. No matter, the show is still stacked with high profile names and exciting fights that should give it at least a fighting chance of siphoning off some of the UFC’s viewers for their Ultimate Finale 12 which will be airing simultaneously.
Strikeforce officials are probably most upset about the loss of mainstream media lightning rod Herschel Walker due to a deep gash he suffered during training about a week ago. Personally I think the absence of him and the snoozer he would have undoubtedly put on only makes the card stronger. In his place we get to see the return of Ovince St. Preux only two weeks after he claimed victory at the Strikeforce Challengers card. He showed great potential and for my money seeing how he deals with the new found pressure of being on the main card and the very short lay off is far more interesting than listening Mauro Ranallo and company breathlessly proclaim Walker to be some sort of hero. In any case here is a match by match preview of the weekend’s card that can be seen at 10pm EST on Showtime…
Dan Henderson vs. Babalu Sobral
One thing that is interesting to me is that this card finds a laundry list of UFC vets who were released from the organization due to questionable in ring behavior. Of them Babalu Sobral’s extended choke hold on David Heath at UFC 74 (and subsequent post-fight smack talk) is certainly the most reprehensible, but since being released he has been a model fighter and has established a 5-1 record (his one loss coming to Gegard Mousasi wherein he lost the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight title). Henderson is also a former UFCer though he left on his own terms (though Dana White would tell you differently) but in his one appearance in Strikeforce he lost a shot at the Middleweight title when Jake Shields dominated him for 4 out of the 5 rounds. Here they both look to move up the ladder towards new Light Heavyweight champ Rafael Cavalcante (somebody, presumably, Sobral would actually challenge) who is seen to be a vulnerable title holder. Neither of these guys have the body they had 10 years ago when they first fought but both are still dangerous competitors. Henderson will most likely be looking for the knockout while Sobral will try and work the fight to the mat where he can work his submission game. It’s a tough fight to call but my gut tells me to stick with Henderson and his big right hand. If Sobral can avoid that he will more than likely be able to score enough to points to eek out a decision victory. However, Henderson has had to live with criticisms surrounding his age and hunger for the past few months and I see him dragging that baggage into the cage with him and using it to score a KO victory that will alleviate any anxiety Strikeforce may have about signing the 40 year old.
Pick: Henderson via 2nd Round KO
Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland
What seems like a mismatch on paper should turn out to be just that once the bell sounds. Lawler, the favorite, is coming off a sluggish decision loss to main eventer Sobral and is looking to get back on the winning path here. Lindland’s gameplan will be no secret to anybody as he hopes to neutralize Lawler’s deadly left by grappling and trying to finish on the ground. Call me crazy but I see him getting there early, forcing Lawler to work his rarely seen submissions. The fact of the matter is that Lawler is younger, stronger and simply a better athlete and if he has to slip on a 1st round kimura to earn the W that is just what he will do.
Pick: Lawler via 1st round submission
Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith
We have a fight here that is so tasty that it easily could have been booked as the main event. Paul Daley, another one who Dana White deemed unfit to ever fight in the UFC again, makes his return to a major organization for the first time since a post fight bitch slap to Josh Koscheck cost him his UFC career (do we really believe that had Brock Lesnar pulled the same stunt that he would have been cut??). In the meantime he all but sent Daniel Acacio screaming out of the arena when he busted him wide open with an elbow at Impact FC 2 back in July and then won a close unanimous decision over Jorge Masvidal at Shark Fights 13 that required a dramatic comeback. All along the way he has maintained his prickly, devil may care demeanor that makes him one of my absolute favorites. Here he is given an incredibly stiff challenge out of the gate as former heavyweight Scott Smith makes his welterweight (!) debut after losing two of his last three. In his last outing he looked a little pathetic as he got KO’d be a spinning back kick from Cung Le that landed right in the liver and dropped him instantly. He’s gone on the record lately as saying that he may be crying at the weigh ins due to his weight cut and it will be interesting to see if he maintains his powerful standup attack at this weight class. Daley is a rather versatile opponent but would prefer to throw leather as opposed to wrestle. Again I foresee a knockout artist being backed into a corner by someone with a different skill set and them working their way out of it with a submission hold. Thus far his only submission victories have come due to strikes but I’m looking for him to lock on a counter hold, let’s say a triangle, and ride it to victory in his return to Strikeforce.
Pick: Daley via 3rd Round submission
Mike Kyle vs. Antonio Silva
Strikeforce’s parade of delinquency continues with this recently scheduled bout between Bigfoot Silva and the Mike Kyle, the man who was once suspended for 18 months due to a nasty soccer kick and post-bell beatdown of Brian Olsen at WEC 20 (youtube it, but it is not a pretty picture). He, like the others, has been a choir boy ever since and in Kyle’s case has put together a stellar record that now has him sitting atop Strikeforce’s muddled Light Heavyweight picture. He is, after all, the last man to defeat Rafael Cavalcante who is current title holder. On Saturday, however, he will be stepping in for an injured Valenijn Overeem who would have been making his promotion debut at the event and thus competing in the Heavyweight division. Silva, oversized and aptly nicknamed, enters the match winning 7 out of his last 8 matches. The one loss came to Fabricio Werdum, a man most would have ranked as the #2 Heavyweight in the world right now. Both will be happy to turn the fight into a slug fest and the end result could come down to who lands the luckier punch. Conventional wisdom says that Silva has the bigger, stronger chin, and while that may be the case Kyle seems to be the man of the moment and will also be bringing speed and agility advantages into the cage with him. Like so many fights on this card picking a winner is a frustrating experience but I’ll go big behind Kyle.
Pick: Kyle via 1st Round TKO
Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux
The newest addition to the card finds St. Preux, coming off of a 15 day layoff, matched up against Radach who last fought in April of 2009. Since that knockout loss to Scott Smith, Radach has battled multiple injuries and will here be fighting outside of his typical Middleweight division. To his credit he was, before UFC 123, the last man to beat Gerald Harris and he currently stands at 19-5. But it’s hard to pick against the up and comer here though as St. Preux, assuming he’s able to recover from his victory over Antwain Britt, should be able to pick the rusty Radach apart fairly easily. His record is actually a less impressive 8-4 although he seems to be hitting his groove as he has won his last five fights scoring KOs in four of them. Look for St. Preux’s good fortune to continue here as I expect him to steamroll Radach and establish himself as a serious contender in the 205 pound division.
Pick: St. Preux via 1st Round TKO
