Bettor Breakdown: UFC 124

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With UFC 124 only a day away, most factors have been taken into consideration and there is no better time than now to make some bets, or predictions. Join Jon Kirschner as he takes a look at tonight’s card and gives you a breakdown of who he would put money on, and why.

Ricardo Almeida (-170 Favorite) vs. TJ Grant (+140 Underdog)
Ricardo Almeida is coming off of a loss against UFC Welterweight powerhouse Matt Hughes. Even though it was a highlight reel victory for Matt Hughes (it almost won “Submission of the Year 2010”) it came off of a punch that knocked Almeida loopy for a couple seconds, making him vulnerable. It’s safe to say that TJ Grant isn’t on the same level of striking or power as Matt Hughes, so that won’t be a factor this Saturday. Grant has displayed some good striking while in the UFC, but Almeida will be smart enough to avoid them and take the fight to the ground. While twelve of Grant’s sixteen victories came by way of submission, it was all against lower-level competition; competition that is nowhere near the level of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu that Ricardo Almeida is at (3rd Degree Black Belt). I’m not completely counting Grant out, as this is his moment to step up and prove that he deserves to be in the octagon with more elite names. Unlucky for him, Almeida is a superior grappler and as we have seen in the past, that is Gran’t weakness. The first time Grant was outclassed on the ground, it was against Dong Hyun Kim where he spent most of the fight on his back, getting ground and pounded and almost ending up in a couple submissions. TJ Grant will bounce back, but I expect him to be either submitted in the third or lose by way of decision this Saturday.

Take Ricardo Almeida at -170 (Bet $10 to win $5.88)

Stefan Struve (-160 Favorite) vs. Sean McCorkle (+130 Underdog)
The undefeated, trash talking internet warrior Sean McCorkle is co-main eventing UFC 124 in just his second fight with the UFC. He was a heavy underdog in his bout against Mark Hunt, but pulled off a submission victory in just 67 seconds. His second time around, sports books are starting to learn that McCorkle isn’t just another keyboard warrior from The Underground forums. Struve is walking into the octagon fresh off a flashy knockout victory against Christian Morecraft… but the fight in whole wasn’t that impressive on Struve’s end. He spent the whole first round getting punched and elbowed on the ground, and while he almost locked in a triangle choke, he gave up that position and immediately ended up on the bottom again. It was brought to my attention in a recent conversation with Will Cooling that Struve’s main issue is that he’s too big for his own good; he doesn’t know how to perfectly utilize all the size advantages that he has. In the fight between Struve and Nelson, Nelson got inside the distance more than he should have and it led to a knockout loss for Struve. This fight will start off standing, but I don’t think it’ll be long before one of them takes it to the ground where McCorkle has the grappling advantage as a wrestler and jiu-jitsu student. McCorkle’s straight arm-bar against Hunt wasn’t a fluke, and he’ll prove that again this Saturday when he defeats Stefan Struve.

Take Sean McCorkle at +130 (Bet $10 to win $13.00)

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Gambling 101 – PROPS

Props, short for propositions, are generally sport-related bets on the outcome of a specific event. In MMA, the most common props are “Fastest KO of the night”, “Fastest Submission of the night” and “Fight of the Night”.
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Mac Danzig vs. Joe “Daddy” Stevenson as Fight of the Night (+425 Underdog)
At an event like UFC 124 where the card is stacked with mid-level talent leaving you with no safe straight bets, this is the perfect time to make some props bets. Joe Stevenson has earned “Fight of the Night” honors in three of his last four fights! Stevenson’s styles (wrestling and jiu-jitsu) and Danzig striking will clash in the best way possible, and will create a hell of an interesting matchup. It’s very possible that the winner of Struve vs. McCorkle will receive Knockout of the Night, and with likely either Almeida or Oliviera taking home SOTN prizes, (and I fully expect GSP/Kos to be a one sided display of dominance) it just gives you more reason to believe Danzig and Stevenson will take home FOTN.

Take Danzig/Stevenson as FOTN at +425 (Bet $10 to win $42.50)

You can follow Jon Kirschner on Twitter @mmakirschner. Make sure you come back to Inside Fights for live coverage of UFC 124!

Jon Kirschner is a young writer from New Jersey who watches mixed martial arts and kickboxing from around the world. Kirschner has been following MMA since 1998 and has been writing about it for 5 years. His work has appeared on Fox Sports and in SCRAPP! Fight Magazine.