As Georges St. Pierre stood with his arm raised inside the Octagon on Saturday night, he looked out onto an uncertain future. While the criticism he received from some was unfair considering the eye-injury he suffered midway through the bout and the apparent strength of Jake Shields credentials as a challenger, nothing could escape the fact that once again St. Pierre had failed to be tested with even the decision by two judges to give Shields the final two rounds seeming overly generous.
What aggravated the disappointment was the realization that there is simply nobody emerging from the UFC’s welterweight division capable of truly challenging St. Pierre. What was once regarded as the second deepest division behind the blue ribbard light heavyweight weight class has in terms of available plausible challengers became the weakest.
Former challengers Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves both followed up one-sided defeats at the hands of the champion with a defeat in their comeback fight and are as such still in the process of rebuilding their careers. Josh Koscheck is still unable to train due to the nerve damage he suffered at the hands of the Canadian at UFC 124.
Highly regarded Danish striker Martin Kampmann failed to capitalize on openings to defeat Jake Shields or Diego Sanchez in his last two outings. For Sanchez the memory of his destruction at the hands of BJ Penn is still fresh and his performances since have been extremely inconsistent. Anthony Johnson offers little other than a middleweight’s physique, something which will be tested by St. Pierre’s teammate and former world title challenger at 185Ibs Nate Marquardt.
The UFC is clearly aware of the problems at welterweight as seen by their determination to make Shields fight at 170Ibs and challenge St. Pierre rather than pit the undefeated former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion against Anderson Silva. They seemed to have a plan to resolve the issue in the short term at UFC 127 with Chris Lytle vs. Carlos Condit and BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch.
Chris Lytle and Carlos Condit were both up and coming fighters on a role. TUF4 runner-up Chris Lytle was on a four-fight win streak and had defeated former champion Matt Serra in his last outing. Carlos Condit was the last ever WEC Welterweight Champion and was on a three-fight winning streak that included a devastating knockout of Dan Hardy and a last gasp submission victory over Rory MacDonald in UFC 115’s Fight of the Night. A victory for either in a match that was widely expected to take match of the night honors would surely cement their status as a real contender.
Meanwhile Jon Fitch and BJ Penn needed to convince nobody that they were world class fighters, but they had failed to persuade fans they could be competitive against the reigning champion after one-sided defeats to the Champion. Jon Fitch was the longtime ‘second best welterweight in the world’ with his limited but consistently effective grinding tactics having help him amass on paper the second best win/loss record in the history of the UFC. Penn had made his return to the welterweight division with an emphatic victory over former champion Matt Hughes. A victory for Penn over Fitch would persuade many that ‘The Prodigy’ could be competitive against modern-day welterweights, while a victory over Penn would be the marquee name that Fitch’s long resume lacked.
And yet the best laid plans of the UFC were undone. First Condit pulled out due to injury and then Chris Lytle lost to Brian Ebersole, a journeyman American ex-pat. Even worse Penn and Fitch fought to an inconclusive draw that left neither with the momentum needed to challenge St. Pierre. Attempts to salvage the situation were frustrated with Penn and Fitch both withdrawing from UFC 132 due to injuries while Condit has been put in a low-profile match against the uncharismatic Dong-Hyun Kim. It’s highly unlikely Condit will secure an impressive enough victory over the stifling former DEEP champion to sufficiently impress fans. Should he lose on July 4th then the UFC will be left with only Dong-Hyun Kim, Mike Pyle and Jake Ellenberger as notable welterweights on a win streak. Not even St. Pierre could draw against one of those three.
The crisis in the UFC’s welterweight division is clear and is worse than just there being nobody who can challenge St. Pierre. It has now got to the stage where there’s nobody the UFC could even hope to persuade fans could pose a threat to the champion. Without any challengers in the division he has ruled for so long for his next fight he will have accept a challenge from outside by agreeing to a superfight against either UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva or Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz. The question is though, who would best test Georges St. Pierre?
Tomorrow: Scott Sawitz on why Nick Diaz should be the next man to challenge Georges St. Pierre
