BOX OFFICE FORECAST: Cowboys & Aliens Vs. Captain America

With three new wide releases coming out this last weekend of July – each appealing to a specific demo – there’s a lot of variety. But not all are worthy of blockbuster status or going to put up big numbers.

Without question, Cowboys & Aliens is the biggest new release of the weekend. It’ll be projected on 3,750 screens and is led by the dynamic duo of Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford (call them James Bond and Indiana Jones if it makes you feel better). Without 3-D that means no added surcharge, which means it won’t get a $8-$10 million bump (at least) in earnings. I don’t think it can top $45 million, because the word of mouth is more than likely going to kill its success, causing it to taper off by weekend’s end.

Crazy, Stupid, Love. is in no way destined to be a mega hit. However, it has a good balance of talent involved (Steve Carell, Julianne Moore, Emma Stone, and Ryan Gosling) that could steer a number of adults, who are burned out from seeing so many superheroes and special-effects driven tentpole pictures. The comedy is not as crazy or stupid as it is titled, but Ryan Gosling’s star-making turn and Emma Stone make it insanely more palatable to twenty-four to thirty year olds.

Then you have The Smurfs. Kids will go see it because they’ve been brainwashed to see things that are not only computer animated but presented in 3-D. That would explain why nobody went to see Winnie the Pooh, the best reviewed children’s release of the summer. Older audiences who live and breathe Smurf may also join in – hoping to have a smurfing good time – but this live-action/animation hybrid won’t get beyond the $20 million mark for its opening weekend.

Captain America: The First Avenger may have come up a few $100,000 short of topping Thor as the biggest comic-book hero release of 2011, but as the last piece as the lead-in to next summer’s The Avengers it did its job. Like Thor it’ll probably have the same percentage drop, and finish the weekend in the ballpark of $32 million.

Harry Potter‘s record-opening also saw it receive the steepest drop for a summer blockbuster in its second weekend. For weekend three it’s likely to have another steep drop and finish with $21 million. Still, the film is the quickest to make it to $900 million worldwide, so no one at Warner Bros. is freaking out about its drops in the U.S.

With Bad Teacher on its way out of the top 10 this weekend, that leaves Friends with Benefits and Horrible Bosses as the two restricted comedies to see. These types of comedies have really thrived this summer. Maybe now the Hollywood Foreign Press will have enough comedies to recognize for next year’s Golden Globes. I’d hate to see another incident where you have a movie like The Tourist up for Best Comedy/Musical. Weighing the fact that FwB didn’t have as strong an opening compared to Horrible Bosses, the end result could be a 40% loss in attendance. And if you still care about things that go boom with Michael Bay at the helm, Transformers: Dark of the Moon could have a $7 million weekend, unable to retain viewers who got tired of toys and would rather make-believe play Cowboys & Aliens.

The release of The Smurfs means less and less will see Cars 2 or Zookeeper this weekend. But they’ll still be in the top ten, with Winnie the Pooh on the outside. To which Eyore replies, “Easy come, easy go.”

Now, for my not-so-accurate box office predictions:

1. Cowboys & Aliens – $42.8 million

10. Cars 2 – $4 million