The heavyweight division, being what it is (the polar opposite of the lightweight division), makes it a lot easier for a young prospect to catapult himself up the ladder. Take Matt Mitrione for instance, the laughing stock of The Ultimate Fighter 10 who is now, somehow, 5-0 with all of those wins coming inside the Octagon. In October he is scheduled to face perennial big dog of the division Cheick Kongo. Roy Nelson won that season of the TUF and then quickly pounded and bloodied Stefan Struve which earned him a title eliminator fight against Junior dos Santos. He lost that fight, badly, and then lost against to Frank Mir and will be fighting for his survival against Mirko Cro Cop also in October. Meanwhile the man he knocked out to win the title of Ultimate Fighter, Brendan Schaub (8-1, 7 KOs) is starting to emerge as the real crown jewel of that season.
Of course Vince McMahon himself couldn’t have crafted the rise of Schaub any better. After tons of exposure and success on the highly watched TUF 10 (thanks to Kimbo Slice) he quickly moved through the undercard mowing down Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchscherer in a combined 114 seconds. From there the UFC moved him into the position of legend killer as they booked him in very winnable fights against some very beatable veterans. Gabriel Gonzaga took him the distance but still lost and Cro Cop suffered one of the more hilarious KOs of the year back at UFC 128. But come Saturday he will get his toughest legend yet, one who is potentially far more dangerous than any of his past opponents, when he squares off against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1, 2 KOs 20 SUBs).
We all know that if Schaub were to win that he would quickly be entered into the title mix (as Dana might say) but the real mystery is how will Nogueira look after an 18 month layoff. In his last appearance he got flattened by a Cain Velasquez who was zooming towards his eventual title, but in the fight before that he put on a great performance and stole a victory away from Randy Couture. Since then injuries have kept him out of action and in his first fight back he will be fighting on his home turf for the first time in a storied career.
So considering his age, the layoff, the injuries and the pressure of fighting in Brazil I would say that only a fool would bet on Nogueira here. That said this is a tricky fight to call. We probably all accept that Schaub is in the prime of his career right now and that if Nogueira were also at the height of his fighting life he wouldn’t have a chance against him. But this fight is not happening in a time machine and Father Time promises to be a force come fight night. I do think that Nogueira has enough game to steal a round from Schaub but that over all the physicality and speed of the younger athlete should be too much for him to handle.
