Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Week 7 was my finest of the season against the spread, as I finished with a pristine if not perfect 10-3 record ATS. I do have two comments, however, on the three games I lost:
1. Packers win 33-27, but fail to cover +8.5 points — This could have gone either way against the spread, but I was confident in Aaron Rodgers’ ability to score more than an opposing offense heralded by Christian Ponder at quarterback. Alas, the Vikings brought it at home and fought bell to bell, so my hat goes off to Minnesota in that regard.
2. Chiefs pound the Raiders 28-0 — I should have seen this one coming with Oakland’s quarterback situation completely unsettled all week, but the equally big killer here was Darren McFadden’s injury. Plus, these division games can be tricky, and the Chiefs are now suddenly 3-3. After the start they had, that’s really impressive.
3. Jaguars beat the Ravens 12-7 — Sometimes you just can’t explain what happens between the lines in professional sports, and this is one of the times. With that said, I LOVE the Ravens this week to rebound after being completely embarrassed in Jacksonville last Monday night.
And now that you’ve had a small taste of my Week 8 thoughts, let’s move…
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 7 BREKADOWN
WEEK 7 ATS: 10-3
WEEK 7 LOCKS ATS: 1-2
WEEK 7 H2H: 9-4
WEEK 7 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Cowboys over Rams)
THIS SEASON ATS: 57-46
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 13-8
THIS SEASON H2H: 71-32
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
Giants (Week 5, Loss)
Raiders (Week 6, Win)
Cowboys (Week 7, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 8 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
SUNDAY
*LOCK IT UP: NY GIANTS (-10.5) over Miami — I feel like the Giants already got their trap game loss out of the way this season, so they will come out of their bye week extremely intense and focused. As a result, the Dolphins will be knocked out early. Giants win 31-9
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Minnesota — The Vikings definitely showed moxie against the Packers last week, but Cam Newton is really starting to get his footing and gain even more confidence than he started the season with. I like the Panthers in a relatively close game that they do cover. Panthers win 28-23
*LOCK IT UP: New Orleans (-12.5) over ST. LOUIS — What was that score last Sunday night again? Not that this will be that epic of a blowout, but the Saints will light up any dome they play in, especially against such an inferior opponent as this Rams team. Saints win 42-13
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Arizona — Just like with the Giants-Dolphins game, I feel like the Ravens got their trap game loss out of the way last week. And, as I said above, I think the Ravens will come out angry and focused this week against Arizona. That said, since they did lose head to head (!) vs. Jacksonville last week, I don’t feel comfortable locking this one up completely. Ravens win 24-10
TENNESSEE (-9.5) over Indianapolis — I will not last week’s Titans’ loss to the Texans fool me into thinking that they aren’t 9.5 points better than the Colts, especially with this game in Tennessee. I sense a score very similar to the Ravens-Cards contest, so… Titans win 24-10
HOUSTON (-9.5) over Jacksonville — The Jaguars’ defense really showed up last week to pressure Joe Flacco all night long. However, the Texans have a much more high-powered offense than the Ravens, and Andre Johnson should be back for Houston this week. After last week’s HUGE win, I think the Jags will hit an emotional lull and the Texans will take advantage of that at home. Texans win 35-21
Washington (+6.5) over BUFFALO — This is the annual let’s-inexplicably-take-home-field-advantage-away-from-Buffalo-and-move-it-to-Toronto-bowl. This one will be close enough for the Redskins to cover, but the Bills will hold onto to win when all is said and done. Bills win 24-22
DENVER (+2.5) over Detroit — Tim Tebow had the cover of all covers last week down in Miami, and I think Detroit’s midseason letdown continues in Denver thanks to more unorthodox play from this paradoxical Broncos team. Broncos win 20-17
*LOCK IT UP/H2H SURVIVOR PICK: SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Cleveland — The Niners will be well-rested following their bye week, and Cleveland team is simply going to get crushed out west. Call it my gut feeling pick of the week… Niners win 30-9
New England (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH — This is the obvious game of the week, and it’s always fun for me as a Jets fan to see these two teams beat the hell out of each other. The Patriots survive and leave Pittsburgh with a big win, something Tom Brady is used to doing. Patriots win 27-21
SEATTLE (+2.5) over Cincinnati — I like the Seahawks as home underdogs against teams like the Bengals that are uneven and have a young quarterback. Home field wins it for Seattle. Seahawks win 20-13
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Dallas — Andy Reid’s back is still against the wall in this spot, and those are the times where I trust him the most as a game planner, at least in the regular season. Eagles win 33-27
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) over San Diego — The Chargers are wildly inconsistent and even worse is the fact that they really came up soft in New York last week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have somehow crept back up to a .500 record, and they will fight like hell here at home against a division rival that is ahead of them in the standings. And, in a mild upset, Kansas City wins outright. Chiefs win 23-21
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
