UFC 139 Preview Part Five: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson

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If you ever wanted to give Dan Henderson a nickname, the most appropriate one ought to be “The Accidental Fighter.” Taking fights in the early part of his career to finance his last attempt to win Olympic gold as a Greco-Roman wrestler, one imagines that if you told Henderson then that he’d be amongst the greatest who ever competed in his generation of MMA fighters and a footnote in Olympic annals he would’ve been disappointed back then. Now, one can argue that Henderson could’ve even been a better fighter than he was if he’d had started well before his athletic peak began to expire. As it is, the man they call “Hendo” is once again back where his MMA roots started: inside the Octagon.

Coming off an impressive three fight win streak, all by knockout, Henderson has been given quite the stiff test for his first fight in the UFC since he knocked out Michael Bisping at UFC 100: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Rua is coming off a quick knockout of Forrest Griffin at UFC 134 and shares a lot in common with the former Olympian, including similar timelines spent in Pride in the same weight division (middleweight, Pride’s version of light heavyweight). But their paths never crossed; Henderson defeated Rua’s brother, Murilo “Ninja” Rua, but Shogun and Henderson never fought then and didn’t cross paths during their first combined stint in the UFC either as Henderson fought at middleweight for all but one fight in his second stint in the UFC (a losing effort to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson to unify the Pride and UFC titles). It was never a fight fans were screaming to make but now, with the fight on the horizon, it is rather intriguing on many levels.

Both men have similar styles but go about in different ways and are small for the division. Henderson famously cuts little if any weight to make 205 and Rua never looks big in the division; both are fighters who would seemingly fit easily into a 195 pound division more effectively than 205.

Henderson has world class wrestling and some tremendous throws but he has definitely changed his style since he made his debut in MMA as a wrestler who tried to get the fight to the ground immediately. Henderson has really developed his boxing, in particular his right hand, and now is much more lethal on his feet than on the ground. It’s odd to say of someone who competed in the Olympics twice but Henderson is much more of a headhunter now with his right hand than someone who relies on takedowns coupled with ground and pound to finish a fight. He stopped three guys with strong chins (Renato Sobral, Fedor, Rafael Cavalcante) with it and everything he does is to set up that power shot; his footwork circles to set it up and he scrambles from the ground to be able to throw that right hand as well. It’s a deadly weapon and a large part of his game plan is to set up situations to throw it early and often.

Rua likes to throw violently, as well, but his striking skill set is much more varied than Henderson’s. He doesn’t work to set up any particular strike; he’s a swarm-style of striker. Once he lands something flush and rocks a guy he’s lethal in throwing combinations quickly and violently. Once he starts landing his rate of punching increases dramatically; his ability to throw power shots to a downed opponent and force the stoppage is legendary and his biggest weapon. He wins by getting that one good shot and then following it up with six to ten quick strikes in quick order; once he hits that big shot to rock someone he’s remarkably effective in following it up for the finish.

And that’s mainly what Henderson is going to have to avoid; this is going to be a fight of footwork and exchanges as both look to set up finishing shots. Rua’s footwork and circling is what solved the “riddle” of Lyoto Machida and it’s what he’ll need to use to beat Henderson. Look for him to circle away from that right hand and get in close; Henderson likes to fire the right hand with a big windup and if he can get him into the clinch he has an advantage with his Muay-Thai. Henderson needs to make the cage small by circling towards his right and towards the cage, forcing force Rua to engage with enough space to throw that big right and connect with it. If Rua can keep away from that right and make this a kickboxing match where Henderson has to use his left as his power hand he can win by decision or a late stoppage; if not then Henderson can make it an early night for him.