Can Pee Wee Knock Down The Skyscraper? Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman an Intriguing Heavyweight Affair at UFC on Fuel TV 1

Previews, Top Story

When it comes to the heavyweight division, Stefan Struve and Dave Herman are poster fighters so far in their careers. If you wanted to advertise two elite level athletes who look like champions, Herman and Struve look the part. At this point in their careers, however, both haven’t distinguished themselves as more than top rate prospects yet to take the next step up.

Struve manages to pull off victories against fighters he’s supposed to beat but has lost against Roy Nelson and Travis Browne when he started to get some momentum after debuting against current UFC champion Junior Dos Santos. His last outing was a spectacular submission victory over Pat Barry that saw him lock in a triangle choke and nearly get slammed out of it by the Death Clutch fighter, who couldn’t break free and would eventually tap out to the towering Struve.

Herman has a stoppage victory over Jon Olav Einemo in his only UFC outing, having been signed after a journeyman’s career in which he compiled a 20-2 record outside the organization with notable wins over a number of aging veterans including Don Frye and Ron Waterman.

In any other fight Herman would have a height advantage over his opponent at 6’5 but Struve towers over the division at nearly seven feet tall with a reach to match. Oddly enough Struve has the second longest reach in the UFC, with light heavyweight champion Jon Jones quirkily having a longer reach than the gigantic Dutchman, but the key to this fight will be how he uses it to his advantage.

Lately that’s been a problem as Struve is one of the worst in the sport at using it to his advantage. In his last two knockout losses, to Browne and Nelson, he allowed the smaller fighter to finish the fight by not using his reach to keep them at bay. It’s frightening how little Struve has used his reach advantage to keep opponents from getting inside and landing power shots on him; Herman’s key to winning will be by exploiting this and landing an uppercut or a straight right flush.

That’ll be the key to the fight as Struve in the past has historically been quite bad at using his physical reach as a major advantage. For someone with the best reach in the division it’s shocking. One would imagine if he hasn’t worked on using his range to keep Herman at distance with both jabs and quick kicks that his chances at victory decrease if this becomes a contest mainly on the feet.

That’s where Herman prefers to keep fights and he has good enough wrestling to keep it there if he wants. A wrestler at Indiana University, Herman is good enough to take Struve down but odds are he doesn’t want any part of Struve’s surprisingly good ground game from the bottom. Struve excels on the bottom and has long enough limbs to pull off a triangle choke at his height, including the one on Barry, and uses his body really well from the bottom. When it comes to grappling Struve uses his physical tools better than anyone in the division in an ironic twist from his stand up.

Herman showed in his last fight with Einemo that he’s smart enough to not go to the ground with someone very skilled there. Odds are he’ll make the same decision with Struve; Herman has good defensive submission skills from the top but against more skilled ground fighters he generally tends to keep it standing. For him to win he’s going to have to get inside and land a big shot or two.

Struve has underrated power but he doesn’t have the chin to get into extended slugfests; look for him to keep Herman at distance (or at least try to) with leg kicks. If Struve can maintain distance and keep Herman from getting inside and landing big strikes he can take the fight. All it takes for Herman to pull out the victory is to exploit that one weakness Struve has yet to show he’s cleared up and land a big strike to knock down the Skyscraper.

The Pick: Herman by KO, Round 2