The lightweight title picture(s) being what it is we never really got the unification bout between the UFC and WEC that we all craved. But this weekend we’ll get the closest thing yet to that as Ben Henderson tries to claim the UFC title from Frankie Edgar. Even though Henderson missed his chance to close down the WEC with their title he did hold it for the last 14 months of the promotions existance except for their final night. And during that reign was pretty much universally left off of pound for pound lists while Zuffa’s more reputable lightweight champ, Edgar starting in April of 2010, got to soak up all the glory. It was just taken as common knowledge that the WEC Lightweight champ really couldn’t be considered as good as the UFC champ because the competition wasn’t nearly as stiff. However, we have seen time and time again that the WEC division was no joke as they continue to score wins over UFC guys. And considering that these two were the reigning champs in the finals months of the WEC there is no better chance to examine the conventional wisdom that proclaimed Edgar the far superior fighter. Even the betting line is remarkably close for the UFC title fight giving indication right away that perhaps Bendo was undervalued back when he fought for that other Zuffa promotion.
It’s hard to sleep on Henderson, a guy who has gone 13-1 in his last 14 outings and who maybe was the victim of some biased judges who were won over by Anthony Pettis and his flashy cage kick at WEC 53. Since entering the UFC he shut out Mark Bocek which may not be saying a lot other than it happened in Bocek’s backyard. But after that he chewed up and destroyed a seemingly unstoppable Jim Miller in August earning himself a title eliminator match up against the man who had earlier in the year flattened Pettis, Clay Guida. The fight was one of the best of the year but Henderson was never really in any danger. He ended up losing one round on one of the judges scorecards and now is ready to take on Edgar in Japan.
Strategically he is also a tough nut to crack. He has a well balanced offense that means that he can’t really be exploited on his feet or on the ground. His legs are possibly the biggest in MMA and have proven difficult to control. He already has a significant size advantage over Edgar and when you factor in those thighs it’s really hard to see him getting taken down at all. If Edgar were to get him there then he would have a wrestling advantage but desiring a take down of Henderson and actually scoring it are two different things. Plus Edgar has to be well aware of Henderson’s ability to choke, four of his career victories have come via the guillotine. Though all of his UFC wins have come thanks to the judges so perhaps the competition has started to catch on, not that it has done them a whole lot of good.
Of course Edgar is one of the top fighters in the world. He has a record of 14-1-1, but if we eliminate Gray Maynard from the equation he is 14-0 and in his last fight he knocked Maynard out sort of nullifying that loss and that draw in the process. He has speed and heart and resilience but I just can’t see it being enough to get past Henderson who has all of those things and simply a larger frame. Of course I can’t imagine Henderson being crafty or aggessive enough to pull off a stoppage (I’m willing to go so far as to say that after round 1 of Edgar/Maynard 2 I’d bet that Edgar will never be finished in his career). He never was a guy you could count on to score a knockout so unless Edgar inexplicably, accidentally sticks his neck where it doesn’t belong watch for this fight to go the distance with Henderson squeaking by on the scroecards.
