The last time we saw a hobbit on the big screen it was in 2003 with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. That film was the culmination of a highly profitable film series which saw it gross over a billion dollars and sweeping the Academy Awards in the 11 categories it was nominated, including Best Picture. But going in to the release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey some factors were at play. Early reviews were mixed and even the J.R.R. Tolkien fanbase wondered if stretching the author’s novel into a trilogy was a stretch. The film also played in 48 fps at certain location. But of the 4000+ screens in which The Hobbit played, only 461 of those were in the 48 fps format. Despite all these quibbles, Peter Jackson’s trip back to Middle Earth made an impressive $84.8 million making it the biggest opening weekend in December history. Comparatively, Return of the King opened at $73 million.
But the previous record holder for December that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey surpassed was Will Smith’s I Am Legend, which grossed $77 million at the time of its opening. Considering how much the box office landscape has changed in between Middle Earth releases one could surmise that The Hobbit‘s success came at the expense of inflation and 3D-enhanced prices. Sure, the audience for fantasy-adventure is there, but the increase is not radical enough to be that much of an offset.
The test will be in the coming weekends to see if this release has the same kind of legs as the original trilogy. With the original Lord of the Rings was considered favorably by both guilds and critics groups, both of which indirectly influenced casual audiences who might normally be turned off by fantasy epics. However with The Hobbit getting mildly favorable reviews, it will be interesting see the audience reacts in weekends two and three. After all, it did take a 25% drop between its Friday opening and Saturday. Granted opening day was bolstered by midnight premieres but the drop between Friday and Saturday is a telling sign.
Internationally is where The Hobbit will thrive the most. It’s already resting comfortably with $138 million overseas, giving it $222.9 million worldwide. The U.S. film economy is a force on the world stage and the success of profitable franchises like Harry Potter and Twilight, anything comic-book related (for the most part), et al. Bottom line: expect The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and its second and third installments to be toplining at or near one billion each.
Leapfrogging above James Bond was Lincoln. Six weekends of release and Steven Spielberg’s historical drama has now crossed $100 million. And only a few $100k separate Lincoln from second place finisher Rise of the Guardians. Actually, there was very little separation from #2 – #4. But considering all the Golden Globes nominations Lincoln has raked up, expect the film to continue being a big draw for older audiences. Since the Globes don’t occur until January 13th, Lincoln could be a top five finisher well into the new year. The 18% drop from its fifth weekend to sixth weekend is a strong indicator that it will only incur minor drops in the coming weeks. The 18% drop was also the lowest audience decline of any film in the Top 10.
Rise of the Guardians is just one of those animated films that’s sort of there just because. It’s the current flavor of the month in terms of kiddie entertainment, but its cost versus earnings is huge disparity. DreamWorks Animation has already given up hope, citing that its performance has cost the studio at least $60 million. The subject alone should have been met with a strong audience this holiday season, but the audience rejected it. Animation family films and horror releases are typically the most depending in the marketplace, but for the former it is dependent on the advertising first and foremost. And if you’ve watched any of the ads for Rise of the Guardians, other than Guillermo Del Toro’s involvement, the ads failed to push the voices of Hugh Jackman, Chris Pine, Jude Law and Alec Baldwin, aside from a graphic listing their names. Now kids could care less about the vocal talent but I feel there is an inherent fascination by adults listening to A-list talent as opposed to seeing them on the big screen.
For James Bond fans don’t look now but Skyfall is $50 million shy from becoming the first billion dollar Bond. Give it a few more weeks and that figure will be achieved.
Ang Lee’s Life of Pi is performing modestly well for 20th Century Fox, but it won’t get to that celebrated mark of $100 million. Overseas, though, that benchmark has already been achieved with several more territories where it is set to open. Right behind Pi is The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. Close to surpassing the domestic numbers for Breaking Dawn – Part 1, the final installment in the Twilight series is already the most successful release of the five worldwide. Which means that vampires and wolves and romantic triangles are as popular here as they are in say Transylvania or other European countries.
The rest of the top ten is a hodgepodge of awfulness interchanged with enjoyable features. Playing for Keeps never had a chance after its dismal performance last weekend; Wreck-It Ralph has been successful, but not the type of success that would make Disney consider greenlighting a sequel to arrive in 2016. And at the bottom of the list we have Red Dawn and The Weinstein Company’s Silver Linings Playbook. Playbook made its first appearance in the top 10 after five weeks. Harvey and Bob have been hesitant to expand the film, but it continues register great per-screen averages. A small 4% drop and playing in 371 theaters is telling that the offbeat romantic comedy has legs, short as they may be. Coupled with an awards presence for writer-director David O. Russell and stars Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence, expect the Weinsteins to break this out into more theaters very soon.
