Cezar Ferreira (5-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Thiago Santos (8-1, 0-0 UFC)
Ferreira and Santos meet in a middleweight bout between two Brazilian fighters who competed on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. Ferreira won the inaugural season of TUF: Brazil at middleweight as he defeated Sergio Moraes at UFC 147. He hasn’t fought since then but is 4-1 over his last five fights. Santos debuts in the UFC off of a stint on TUF: Brazil 2. He split his last two fights after starting his career off with seven straight wins.
Fight Breakdown- Ferreira, better known to Brazilian fans as “Cezar Mutante”, is one of the top prospects in the sport at 185 pounds and is a protege of Vitor Belfort. He has moved with Belfort to train with the Blackzilians camp in Florida, and he will return after nearly 14 months off following his win on season one of TUF: Brazil. Injuries to both him and his opponents kept him from fights against C.B. Dollaway and Chris Camozzi, and he was slated to fight Clint Hester in this bout before Hester pulled out due to injury. Fights against experienced fighters like those would have been better for Ferreira, who has all the tools to be a title challenger, and this fight should turn into a chance for him to showcase himself moving forward.
Santos was defeated twice on TUF: Brazil 2 by both finalists, Leonardo Santos and William Macario, and it looked like he wasn’t gonna be brought into the UFC, though he was on the radar as an injury replacement for any fight card in Brazil. When Hester pulled out with the injury, it created an open slot, and Santos took the opportunity. It is a big risk, though, as Santos will be moving up a weight class for the fight, and Ferreira is both an excellent fighter and a huge middleweight, so Santos will be giving up a lot of size. Santos has an edge of having more fight experience though Ferreira has fought at a higher level.
Ferreira is a complete package as a fighter. He has vicious striking abilities and his ground game is solid and improving. He fights as a southpaw, and under the tutelage of Belfort, he has become a younger version of Belfort. He fights like Belfort, and with his power and aggression on the feet, he could have a Belfort-like finish of Santos. Santos should look to just weather any storm Ferreira brings, but he may be in over his head here. The best bet for Santos would be to counter by using kicks and mixing up his attacks. Ferreira, much like Belfort, can get wild if he gets too comfortable, and Santos would be wise to draw Ferreira into wild exchanges. The downside of that is Ferreira’s power will knock Santos out. Ferreira likes to clinch and rock the body, and he has a good sense of attacking when he has his opponent in trouble. This is a fight tailor-made for a Ferreira win, and he will score an impressive finish sometime in the first ten minutes.
Why It Matters- Ferreira could be a title challenger in the future and this is the start of building his resume as a middleweight contender. He should win this fight, and he gains momentum from a win, but he will need stiffer competition in the future. That isn’t his fault that he has lower-tier competition in this fight as injuries have reaked havoc on his matchmaking. Ferreira should win, though a loss would hurt any chances he has of being a future contender for at least the foreseeable future.
Santos has everything to gain and nothing to lose with this fight. He is an injury replacement, and with him taking the fight on short notice, he will get another fight will a full training camp. He is taking this fight out of his natural weight class, and with the talent of Ferreira, he should be expected to lose. A win would make him instantly in Brazil, and it would be a huge upset. A fighter with nothing to lose is a dangerous fighter as well.
Prediction- Ferreira
