After winning of 2012’s best fights on a Fuel TV card, and establishing himself as a contender in the division beforehand, Chan Sung Jung aka “The Korean Zombie” has gotten his wish against Jose Aldo. With original contender Anthony Pettis withdrawing due to a knee injury, TKZ has gotten his wish and is taking on “Scarface” in the champion’s backyard.
Fight breakdown – TKZ first came to prominence for a lot of people on the only WEC PPV, brawling his way into infamy against Leonard Garcia on the final fight before the PPV started. While he would lose that fight, and then get his lights turned out by George Roop shortly thereafter, he’s managed to find himself into title contention by going for the win as opposed to become the favorite fighter of the “Just Bleed” crowd.
How’s he going to beat Jose Aldo? Take Jose Aldo down, keep him there and grind him until he breaks. TKZ has a great ground game, pulling off the only guillotine body ride submission (the Twister, for 10th planet types) in UFC history, and that’s where he can win. He won’t win standing up, where he has some dynamite in his hands but has been cracked (and put out) before. TKZ is going to have to ugly this up, turn it into a clinch fest and work the formula that Chad Mendes was working (until he got knocked out).
He isn’t going to win standing up, which is Aldo’s wheelhouse.
Aldo’s game plan is going to be simple: keep it standing and keep cracking him until he falls down. Aldo’s strength in this fight is his standup and he can finish this early potentially; he’s got enough power (and enough of a chin) to get into a firefight with TKZ and win nearly every time. Look for him to stay on the outside, throw leg kicks and look for his opening to get inside. Aldo’s BJJ game is first rate but he’s never had to use it for the most part in his WEC/UFC run; his striking and takedown defense is where his bread is buttered and don’t expect him to vary from this.
The key will be if TKZ can get him down, or at least grind long to drain Aldo’s gas tank. Aldo gasses if someone makes him grapple, or defend takedowns en masse, for a couple rounds. If TKZ can do so he can win this fight, or at least get to the scorecards and have a chance. Aldo struggles when guys can make him grapple, which tires him out quicker than striking.
Will TKZ do it? I don’t know. He’s been lured into brawls and his takedowns come more organically than from level changes.
Why it matters – This is potentially Jose Aldo’s last fight at featherweight, as he’s talked openly about moving up to lightweight. The Pettis fight was going to be his denouement, as Pettis was another elite lightweight dropping down to push him, but TKZ in this spot leaves the waters a bit murky. My guess is that Aldo stays for a little bit longer, then up to lightweight, but you never know.
For TKZ it’s a chance at UFC gold. He’d be the first Asian champion in UFC history, to boot, and if the UFC can’t have their own Brazilian GSP having an Asian champion would be a nice consolation prize.
Prediction – Aldo by KO
