Thales Leites (20-4, 5-3 UFC) vs. Tom Watson (16-5, 1-1 UFC)
A former title challenger returns to the UFC as Leites makes his comeback on the UFC 163 main card. Leites was 5-3 during a previous stint with the UFC, which included challenging Anderson Silva for the UFC Middleweight Championship. Leites was released in August 2009, but after a 6-1 mark since his release, he is welcomed back. Watson will welcome him back as he looks for back-to-back wins. He defeated Stanislav Nedkov in February at UFC On FUEL TV 7. He is 4-1 over his last five fights.
Fight Breakdown- Leites had a solid run in his first stint in the UFC. He lost to Martin Kampmann in his debut, but then rattled off five straight wins to earn a shot at the UFC Middleweight Championship against Anderson Silva at UFC 97 in April 2009. Silva defeated Leites in an unmemorable fight, but may it was memorable for how terrible the fight was. Leites had nothing for Silva, and Silva made sure everyone knew that over five rounds. That was followed by a loss to Alessio Sakara in another bad fight, which led to Leites being cut by the UFC. After six wins in seven fights, including the one loss to Matt Horwich in that span being avenged, Leites has earned his way back, and he will need to have exciting fights if he wants to hang around in a tough middleweight division.
Watson is a popular fighter in his home country of England, but he will be fighting for the first time out of his home country in the UFC. He debuted with the UFC at UFC On FUEL TV 5 but was defeated by Brad Tavares by decision. He bounced back with the win over Nedkov that earned him both “Fight Of The Night” and “Knockout Of The Night” honors. Watson has gone 12-2 over his last 14 fights, and he has a shot to become a viable contender in the UFC’s middleweight division. He just needs to start racking up wins, and wins over solid competition like Leites will help him move up the ladder. His win over Nedkov, which came after a vicious flurry of elbows and punches against, showed that he has solid finishing ability, and that he just needs to keep himself from being controlled on the ground if he is going to score a win.
Leites will need to get the fight down to the ground if he is going to defeat Watson. Watson has shown he has trouble getting the fight upright if he is being dominated by the takedown, and Leites has solid control on the ground if he can get it planted there. Watson should know that Leites will be looking to take the fight to the mat, and if he hasn’t trained properly to defned the takedown, it will be a long night for Watson. Leites needs to be aggressive in his attempts to drag the fight to the mat. Flopping down to the ground and trying to coax Watson into coming into his guard will not get the job done as Watson will not willingly go to the ground with him. Leites has good control on the mat and transitions well, attacking with submissions, and while Watson did show he could get up from the ground against Tavares and Nedkov, Leites’ ability to control an opponent on the mat could keep Watson down for an extended period.
Watson needs to keep the fight on the feet as he will win the striking battle. Leites doesn’t put a lot of power behind his punches, and he would not be mistaken for a knockout artist. Watson will be looking to attack with punches, kicks and knees from all quarters, and he is very solid at attacking when in close range. Watson should look to avoid a clinch battle with Leites as Leites could try to drag the fight down to the mat. Watson is dangerous in the clinch, and he will use knees, elbows and short punches to wear down his opponents. Another thing that will help Watson is that Leites tends to shoot for takedowns from a long distance, so he should be able to see the shot coming and be able to counter with a punch or kick attack. Leites will need to use his strikes to set up the takedowns, but Watson should look to wear down Leites with his strikes. Leites has had question marks surrounding his conditioning, and Watson will use that knowledge, and with the help of Greg Jackson, he will have a gameplan that will lead him to win by late stoppage.
Why It Matters- Leites would love to earn another title shot in the UFC, and it would take at least five wins if he is going to get there. A win over Watson would be a solid victory in his first fight back, but a loss could show once again that maybe Leites isn’t at the level of being able to compete with middle of the road UFC fighters. Leites needs a win way more than he could afford to take a loss.
Watson is looking to catapult himself into higher-profile fights and a win over a former title challenger would get him to that next level. Watson is not afraid to call out fighters the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort, but to get to that level, he’s a few fights away. Watson wants the win and big fights, but a loss would knock him to 1-2 in the UFC, which could get him cut. He needs the win worse than Leites, and he will fight like it.
Prediction- Watson
