UFC Fight Night 29 (Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields) – Matt Hamill vs. Thiago Silva Breakdown, Preview and Prediction

Previews

Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill are potential top 10 fighters in the light heavyweight division who had their chance to become elite and never did. Silva has had problems with drug testing and Hamill never had that final gear; after some time off both are trying to get back into the mix.

Fight Breakdown: Matt Hamill hopefully has brushed up on his wrestling; he’s going to need it if he wants to beat Silva in any way but a one shot KO.

Hamill is a hall of fame wrestler on the deaf circuit; he’s fairly legendary in that regard. He came into MMA well after his wrestling career was over; he never transitioned well into the regular circuit but on the deaf scene he’s one of the best in American history. He also owns a couple of NCAA titles in the sport on the division III level; he initially was at Purdue but transferred out to Rochester Institute of Technology because it had a better program to deal with his deafness. Hamill has stellar credentials in that department but guys with lesser records have managed to take him down repeatedly.

Hamill’s m.o has always been to use his wrestling to get guys down and ground and pound them out; he has remarkable power to go with it but his bread gets buttered with double legs all day. The problem he’s had is that his wrestling hasn’t been good enough to get him wins at the elite level; he’s good enough to beat guys outside the Top 10 with it all day but he fails when it comes to taking down guys with elite TDD. The Rampage fight was a prime example of it.

Hamill has a number of big knockout wins but he’s playing with fire if he wants to stand and bang with Thiago Silva.

Silva’s had a bad run of late in his non-cage career; he’s won fights but he’s failed two drug tests. It’s what has kept him from getting a meaningful fight since he fought Gustafsson in Sweden over a year ago. Hamill is a step in that direction and he’ll win with his striking. He has a black belt in BJJ, something he’s used before, but Silva’s bread is buttered with big time power in his hands. His biggest wins are ones he secured with his striking.

Hamill has a good chin but has been stopped with strikes before; look for Silva to try and make him do it again. This is your typical striker/grappler matchup. Hamill needs to get this to the ground and Silva will want to throw hands. Look for Silva to keep his distance, work the outside and sprawl as needed. Hamill is going to get this close and get the takedown. This could wind up being spectacular or 15 minutes of clinch work.

Why it matters: A win here gets someone back into position to move against the elite of the division. Hamill came back because he thought he had something left. Silva sticks around because he could be elite. We’ll find out tonight which of these statements is more accurate.

Prediction: Silva