Kicking off the main card of UFC 166, a card headlined by the rubber match between Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and rival Junior Dos Santos, are two flyweights with very different statuses in the UFC. John Dodson is coming off of a loss in a title fight in which he came very close to winning, while his opponent Darrell Montague will be making his UFC debut.
Fighter Summary
Darrell Montague (13-2 overall, UFC)
Strengths: Balanced skill set, potential finishing power and submission skills
Weaknesses: No experience on the big stage
John Dodson (14-6 overall, 3-1 UFC)
Strengths: Quickness and speed, movement, versatile striking
Weaknesses: Doesn’t utilize takedowns/ground game much
Fight Breakdown – Flyweight fights are always hard to predict because of the unpredictability of many of the fighters. It’s hard to say how guys will match up with each other. But with that being said, at the same time flyweight fights usually follow the same pattern. Whoever has the best overall skill set is going to win. Guys just can’t hide in the flyweight division, where so many fighters are skilled in every area. When fights go the distance, weaknesses tend to get exposed.
That sounds like any other weight class, but there are plenty of examples in other divisions where someone who was supposed to lose pulled off an upset or improbable comeback thanks to a big punch/kick or submission move. The reason that typically doesn’t happen in the flyweight division is because most guys just don’t have the power/weight to really put guys down. John Dodson is one of the exceptions. He’s one of the few guys in the Flyweight division who has shown he can consistently KO his opponent. He very nearly did against dominant champion Demetrious Johnson, maybe becoming the first real guy to test Johnson’s chin.
Dodson shies away from initiating take downs and instead looks to stay standing and striking. So don’t expect much change when he comes out against Montague. If he was able to tag Demetrious Johnson, maybe the quickest fighter in the UFC with one of the best gas tanks, then he should find similar luck against Montague. Dodson is going to come out aggressive and smart, with a variety of strikes both orthodox and unorthodox to see if he can find any holes in Montague’s defense. He’s only going to clinch at opportune moments or if the opponent initiates it, and his takedown defense is excellent. If he wants to keep this one standing, that’s probably what’s going to happen.
Montague has also shown he can knock guys out, but this is a different world he’s entering here. He’s danced with the big boys before (Ian McCall) so that speaks on his behalf, but he lost that fight by submission. Dodson’s striking is good enough to probably dictate the fight, so if Montague finds himself in trouble, look for him to keep Dodson locked up and take this thing down to the ground. Montague has almost as many submission victories as he does KO victories, so he isn’t exactly a slouch rolling around on the mat. If he’s at a disadvantage in the standup, which he very well may be, he should do his best to change strategies and stay in the fight.
Key to Victory: Can Montague withstand and overcome the barrages?
Dodson is an elite striker and he’s going to bring it to Montague from start to finish. It’s not going to be a matter of two guys feeling each other out as much as it’s going to be one guy (Dodson) pushing the pace and testing the abilities of the other guy (Montague). Montague has a few options here. He can play the wait-and-see game and see what Dodson throws at him, then do his best to pick his spots and strike back. That’s easier said than done in a flyweight fight, when guys are so active and quick for every second of every round. Another choice would be to get super aggressive in looking for take downs and clinch opportunities. Locking Dodson up and keeping him still is certainly one way to stop him from moving around and finding his rhythm.
Of course, Montague can throw all of that out of the window and take the fight to Dodson. He may very well be quick enough, skilled enough and experienced enough to gain the upper hand and fight the fight he wants. He can throw caution to the wind and go after Dodson and put him on the defensive, but it’s going to take an extremely high level of skill to do that, say…enough to challenge for the flyweight title. It’s a rare fighter who can come into the UFC and fight someone like the caliber of John Dodson, and come out victorious. But fighting him aggressively as opposed to passively may be just what the doctor ordered.
Why It Matters – This is a big opportunity for both guys. Dodson fought his way to a well-deserved title shot and was the first guy to really put champion Demetrious Johnson in trouble. He went the distance and ended up losing a unanimous decision, but he’s got the goods to get back to a title shot and win it. The line at Flyweight isn’t that long because the division just isn’t that deep. John Moraga just challenged Johnson and he only had two fights (both wins) in the UFC before being granted a shot. That only happened because Johnson defeated all of the other legitimate contenders. Well, it’s time for him to start rematching, as his next matchup is Joseph Benavidez, someone he beat just over one year ago. Even if Johnson loses his title, it makes for more potential matchups and Dodson is right up there at the top of the division. If he wins this fight, he could be due for another shot by default. That’s a big carrot to dangle in front of him for this fight, so you can bet he’s going to do whatever it takes to win.
Montague, even though this is his first UFC fight, is basically in the same boat. He has a golden ticket in this fight, a chance to rocket up the division and challenge for the title himself. Again, John Moraga found himself in a title fight after winning only two fights in the UFC, although he won both in impressive stoppages. If Montague can pull off the stunner here, and better yet, in impressive fashion, they could be knocking on his door to challenge for the title next, crazy as it sounds. The odds of that happening are not very high, but it’s not impossible. It’s also not a stretch to say he could take the fast track to a title shot with a win here, so he should be very motivated to perform well. It’s his first fight in the UFC, on a big stage and live PPV, so expect some jitters. It probably won’t be enough to throw him completely off his game, but fighting John Dodson in his first fight probably will.
Prediction – Dodson
