Five For Fighting – Fights to Make After UFC 166, aka Cain Velasquez’s Epic Destruction of Junior Dos Santos Part 2

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What a fight card on Saturday, no? UFC 166 was one of the best cards of 2013, top to bottom, and Cain Velasquez looked unstoppable in the main event. Throw in Melendez/Sanchez and a sick, sick undercard and UFC 166 was well worth the six hours of time. Now it’s time to play Sean Shelby & Joe Silva, figuring out what’s next for the most intriguing winners and losers from Saturday’s card.

Winners

Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum – Dana announced this at the post fight presser and it makes sense. Werdum has been the number one contender for a while and stopped Big Nog most recently in Brazil. He’s earned the shot … though people aren’t going to be giving him much of a chance after Cain just mauled Junior Dos Santos. Cain looks like the best heavyweight ever at this point and the first JDS fight looks more like an aberration now than anything else. Werdum/Cain looks like it’ll be a great fight and makes the most sense right now. If Werdum can’t go I could see the winner of Barnett/Browne getting the next shot as well. Daniel Cormier would be the perfect pick but obviously that fight won’t be happening.

Hector Lombard vs. Dong Hyun Kim – Both guys just notched massive knockout wins but still remain some ways from being relevant in the title picture. Lombard came in with high expectations, and a big contract, thus he’s going to pushed up the ladder quicker than he should because of it. Expectations are higher and his next opponent should be a logical step up from Marquardt. The Donger is just that opponent and would make for a great style matchup. Kim showed power he never has shown in the UFC by one shotting Erick Silva back to the undercard and I’m curious if he could do it again. Jake Shields could be in this spot as well. Lombard is such an interesting style matchup for a lot of guys that the possibilities are pretty interesting now. The loser of Condit/Brown could be here and I wouldn’t rule out Hyun Gyu Lim. They want to build Lombard up and getting him someone who’s a good style matchup will be key.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Rafael Dos Anjos – A lot of this depends on the winner of Pettis/Thomson. Most people think Melendez is the best lightweight in the world and should’ve gotten the win over Benson Henderson. A good win over Diego Sanchez is a nice start but I don’t think Melendez gets the next title shot unless it’s Thomson. Thomson/Melendez 4 would be another barnburner and Pettis/Melendez would be a great fight, as well. I just don’t think the UFC gives Melendez a title shot so soon after losing the first one he got. I think he gets a title eliminator against someone in the mix and Dos Anjos meets that criterion. T.J Grant wouldn’t be a surprise in this slot, as well, as I think Melendez needs one more win before another title shot. That’s the downside of losing a title shot; getting another should be more difficult. Melendez lost in such a close manner than it should be a slightly easier path than a murderer’s row but a win over Sanchez and then Dos Anjos or someone like Grant, Khabib Nurmagomedov or Gleison Tibau makes the most amount of sense.

Daniel Cormier vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira – Cormier wants a shot at Jon Jones and the UFC light heavyweight title, the latter more important than the former. You can’t place him against Gustafsson and ruin a contender. You can’t give him someone like Fabio Maldonado. You can’t give him an immediate title shot, either. Thus Cormier will need a contender but not someone one fight away from a title fight. Little Nog is the perfect fit and I could see the winner of Rashad Evans/Chael Sonnen being in this slot as well. Cormier is probably one win away from a title shot in the division but needs to prove he can make 205, and make it without renal failure, before he’ll get one. I’d like to see him make the weight successfully twice before a title shot, of course, but I think he only needs one win (if it’s a great fight and a stoppage) to get a title shot. A light heavyweight debut that’s equivalent to the Nelson fight and he’ll need a second win, I think. I wouldn’t be shocked if the winner of Shogun Rua/James Te Huna fight is in this slot as well.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic – Gonzaga is having a bit of a late career resurgence where the thing that brought him to fame (his ability to put guys out) is still working for him. Knocking out Shawn Jordan is pretty impressive and I think it moves him into the Top 10, or reasonably close to it. Gonzaga is a fan friendly fighter and I think he gets someone in the Top 10 for his next fight. Miocic would make for a great fight and would be one that gets one of the two into a title eliminator. Gonzaga has looked like a killer in his past several fights and Miocic’s boxing would make for a wild feature fight on a big card.

Tony Ferguson vs. Myles Jury – Jury’s a great prospect starting to turn into a potential contender who ran into the dull machine that was Mike Ricci. Ferguson is still a prospect in the UFC who has a loss to Michael Johnson as the only blemish on an otherwise sterling record since reaching the UFC. Jury’s one fight away from someone relevant and Ferguson is a TUF winner, thus he’s going to be pushed a fight or two ahead of where he should be. Both guys are fairly exciting, as well.

John Dodson vs. the winner of Ali Bagautinov/Timothy Elliott – Dodson is ideally another win away from being in the hunt for a title shot. The problem is that everyone of note is tied up right now, thus he’ll probably have to wait a bit to get a fight against someone who matters. Elliott/Bagautiov will decide who moves into the Top 5 of the division and Dodson would be a good candidate to welcome them there. Dodson/Elliott last may was a great fight and Bagautinov/Dodson has fireworks all over it. The winner of McCall/Jorgensen could be in this spot as well; Dodson is a title contender and the UFC will put him in an eliminator fight next.

Losers

Junior Dos Santos vs. the loser of Barnett/Browne – JDS is in a tough spot. He’s clearly the second best heavyweight in the world. The only guy that he hasn’t completely lamped is the champion, who destroyed him twice to JDS’s once. JDS will probably never get another title shot as long as Cain Velasquez holds the belt. He’s a first rate person and fighter but there’s only so many times you can give a guy a title shot after he’s been dismantled. He’s essentially a heavyweight version of Rich Franklin right now. The plus for him is that heavyweight is so thin that he could win three-four fights in a row, with two or three by knockout, and be in the discussion again as a fringe contender. It’s odd to think of the #2 guy in the world as being on the fringe of UFC matchmaking but that’s what JDS is right now. The loser of Barnett/Browne will be in a similar spot, on the outside looking in, but with a closer path to being back in the mix.

Roy Nelson vs. the loser of Mark Hunt/Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva – The one thing Dana White has been right on for longer than anyone will give him credit for is Roy Nelson. Nelson’s a guy who looks like a killer … until he faces anyone elite. Then he looks like just another guy. Nelson is probably never going to do enough to get a title shot and that’s ok. Silva had two shots at Cain Velasquez and wound up letting the champion wear his blood like a t-shirt. Mark Hunt got wheel kicked unconscious by JDS. For all three it’s a matter of keeping them occupied as gatekeepers to the elite. Silva’s sheer size could make for a great matchup problem for Nelson and Nelson’s power could make for an epic knockout. Hunt is just an Australian version of Nelson. Either matchup would be fun.

Diego Sanchez vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov – Sanchez looked like he belonged in the cage for the final round against Gilbert Melendez, probably the best lightweight in the world. If there was a guy who did more for his ranking than Diego I’d like to see him. He looked like a Top 10 fighter against the #2 guy in the world at his weight. Nurmagomedov wants a big matchup against a big name and is never dull. Sanchez brings out great fights with anyone. Kind of makes sense to me. Gray Maynard could be in this spot potentially as well as Benson Henderson as well.

Shawn Jordan vs. Matt Mitrione – Jordan is still a great prospect and young enough to make improvements in his game to get into the title picture. He’s still raw and needs a lot of refinement, which is why someone like Gonzaga finding the right moment to counter him wasn’t as shocking as it could’ve been. That’s veteran knowhow. Jordan has all the raw tools and is in the right camp to be an elite heavyweight; he just needs time and work. Mitrione is in a similar spot but “Meathead” is a bit older for a guy who’s trying to be more than just a prospect. Big Nog could be in this slot and I could see Soa Palelei as well. Jordan still has some value, long term, but now it’s back to the end of the line.