What is sure to be an exciting fight in the Featherweight division keeps the main card rolling at UFC on FOX 10. Darren Elkins, coming off of a dominant win over Hatsu Hioki, meets Jeremy Stephens, who is on a two fight winning streak, most recently demolishing Rony Bezerra with a headkick KO. Elkins will look to put a stop to Stephens’ momentum as both fighters will try to stay in the win column this Saturday.
Fighter Summary
Jeremy Stephens (22-9 overall, 10-8 UFC)
Strengths: KO power, explosive strikes
Weaknesses: Susceptible to subs, lacks elite striking
Darren Elkins (17-3 overall, 7-2 UFC)
Strengths: Well-rounded grinder, wrestling, good pace
Weaknesses: Takedown defense
Fight Breakdown – By now, we’ve seen what these guys can do in the Octagon and their ceilings have essentially been established. Stephens is a tough fighter, a brawler with powerful striking that could turn the tide of the fight at any time, but not the most technical fighter out there. Whenever he gets a serious step up in competition, he loses. Elkins is a very winnable fight for him, as long as he stays away from Elkins’ greatest strength, which is undoubtedly his ability to wrap guys up and take them down for some ground and pound treatment.
Elkins is improving in his striking, but he probably won’t look like Jose Aldo come fight night. Stephens is more of a power guy than a frequent jabber, and he might have some problems if Elkins is moving really well, but he’s more than a match for Elkins in the stand-up and could very easily have the advantage for the fight.
Elkins’ bread and butter is his wrestling. As stated, his striking is getting better all the time, but Elkins started as a wrestler and usually guys like that are always wrestlers at heart. He is going to test Stephens in the clinch and takedowns, and could very well spend the majority of the fight keeping Stephens pinned down and eating an assortment of punches and elbows to the head and body. That’s what Stephens has to avoid, and that’s what Elkins should try to do. Elkins’ top control isn’t all-world, but he is more than capable of keeping Stephens down for an extended period of time and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how that will play out in the eyes of the judges. Stephens absolutely can not let this turn into a takedown and top control demonstration by Elkins.
Whatever approach Elkins takes, he has to watch out for Stephens counterstriking. That head kick Stephens landed on Rony Bezerra caught him as he feinted in and Bezerra paid the price. Elkins can’t blindly rush in with his chin exposed. He’s got to earn those takedowns by pushing Stephens towards the cage and locking him up. Stephens would do well to keep Elkins on the defensive with an array of leg kicks and front kicks. Just using his hands won’t be enough to deter someone like Elkins, but catching him with a knee coming in definitely could.
Key to Victory: Patience
Stephens may be good enough in the stand up to win the fight. Elkins may be good enough with his wrestling to win it. The key for both guys is to stick to their game plans and not get impatient. Just because something isn’t working for a moment, doesn’t mean Elkins or Stephens should just abandon ship and do something out of character.
That said, both guys better have a plan B if the other guy adjusts and deals with whatever is thrown at him. Stephens may get peppered by Elkins and outstruck against the cage, so he has to have something to resort to if that happens. Elkins is a great wrestler, but he’s also been put on his back plenty of times. Stephens has to flip that switch from striking to takedowns/GNP at will if the situation calls for it. The same holds true for Elkins, who shouldn’t shy away from his takedown attempts if Stephens shrugs them off initially. It’s a long, grueling fight and both of these guys have tons of heart and keep a strong pace. Whoever maintains the mental toughness and calm will very likely prevail.
Why It Matters – It’s almost a certainty that we’ve seen the best Stephens has to offer. He’s a middle of the pack guy who will beat guys, sometimes spectacularly, who are on the up and up, but give him someone with an elite skill set and he loses. But what about that headkick KO of Bezerra, you ask? Stephens has finished guys before and lost the very next fight. He’s got almost as many losses as he does wins in the UFC. If he finishes Elkins in some eye-popping manner, then we can start talking about a possible reinvention of Stephens as an MMA fighter. But Stephens has never won three in a row in the UFC and Elkins is no slouch. Stephens has a chance here to enter that new ground, but he has to be consistent across the board, especially as the competition gets tougher.
Darren Elkins was looking like something special before he ran into Chad Mendes in the middle of Mendes’ hot streak. He took that fight on short notice and it was clearly a case of too much too soon. But not many guys were going to beat Chad Mendes at that point and it was a tall task for anyone. It would have been a long shot for Elkins to win, but it doesn’t mean Elkins won’t reach that level at some point. His resume is very impressive and he’s beaten some very tough fighters so far. Stephens would be a great name to add to his list of conquered opponents and it’s a fight that he can win and learn from. He’s got a lot of potential and could earn a shot at someone a bit higher up with a nice win come Saturday. Elkins has an ever improving skill set and will display it against Stephens on the way to a W.
Prediction – Elkins
