UFC 170 Preview: Stephen Thompson vs. Robert Whittaker

Previews

Kicking off the main card of UFC 170 are two rising welterweights with different specialties in striking. Kicking specialist Stephen Thompson, last seen blasting Chris Clements in a first round TKO stoppage, meets boxer and TUF winner Robert Whittaker, who is looking to bounce back from his first loss in the UFC to Court McGee.

Fighter Summary

Stephen Thompson (8-1 overall, 3-1 UFC)

Strengths: Kickboxing and tae kwon do, kicks for days

Weaknesses: Untested on the ground

Robert Whittaker (11-3 overall, 2-1 UFC)

Strengths: Unorthodox striking, stand-up and take down defense

Weaknesses: Striking accuracy, grappling

Fight Breakdown – This one is going to be interesting. Thompson may very well be the most leg-centric fighter in the UFC and MMA today, more than Carlos Condit or Jon Jones. He is extremely active to say the least, and his leg attacks are accurate, powerful and at times very unpredictable. Whittaker, on the other hand, is almost the polar opposite and utilizes an atypical boxing style, keeping his left hand down in front of him and using it to jab and probe at opponents, and set up bigger strikes.

The differences in their approaches will make for a nice, stylistic clash. Whittaker is not afraid to bang, but he’s not sloppy and doesn’t just stand in the pocket and swing. He’s going to pursue Thompson very methodically and try to connect with his head. Thompson has a very active stand up though and as mentioned, utilizes a plethora of kicks that should be effective enough to keep Whittaker at bay. Expect to see a lot of side and front kicks from Thompson, both to keep Whittaker from coming in too aggressively, and to wear Whittaker down from top to bottom and set up some heavy kicks for a finish.

Whittaker will probably catch Thompson a few times, and will definitely land a few stiff jabs, but he’ll need to do more to score points and do some damage against him. Thompson lost a unanimous decision against Matt Brown, but went the distance with him – the only guy to do that in Brown’s last six fights. So he’s obviously a tough fighter. Jabs and hooks will score points, but Thompson is going to balance that out by landing leg and front kicks all night. Whittaker is going to need to turn it up a notch, and take Thompson’s greatest strength away.

Initiating clinches would be a great way to do that. Thompson is a very wary fighter and utilizes excellent movement to stay out of trouble spots and keep his back off of the cage. He’s got a good motor and mentally he’s not likely to slip up, so don’t expect him to back up straight into the cage and invite Whittaker to come in and tee off. Whittaker has to anticipate and cut Thompson off and just make things ugly. Judges give points for guys who are in control against the cage, whether they accomplish a lot or not. Whittaker can do a lot to help himself by keeping Thompson locked up all night and unable to unload with his kicks.

Key to Victory: Can Whittaker close the distance?

It’s no fun trying to close the distance and finally getting within striking range, just to eat a stiff side kick to the body that backs you off. Whittaker may find himself in that very situation several times throughout the fight. The sooner he breaks past Thompson’s outer shell of kicks, the better off he’ll be. He’s going to eat a few to do that, but better to eat a few and prevent more for an extended period than consistently get tagged throughout the entire round.

If he can close the distance and get up close and personal with Thompson, it’ll make for a more dynamic fight, but staying on the outside and slowly probing Thompson’s perimeter defense is probably not the best strategy. He has to get past the range where Thompson’s kicks are most effective, and then connect with short punches and elbows inside. What would really do wonders for him is catching Thompson off balance. There will be brief moments after Thompson throws a fully committed kick that he will be slightly off balance, and Whittaker could time things right and find success. Catching a few of Thompson’s kick would be even better. Whatever he can do to throw Thompson off his rhythm, the last thing he wants is for Thompson to find his range and timing, bouncing up and down confidently in the middle of the Octagon. If Thompson is doing that a lot, he’s probably winning the fight.

Why It Matters – For both of these guys, it’s a chance to break somewhere close to the top 15 of the division. If you look at what’s happening in the UFC’s welterweight division, aside from GSP retiring of course, we’re seeing a shift of the old guard making room for the new. Mainstays like Josh Koscheck and Jake Shields are somewhat fading, while newcomers Tyron Woodley, Rory MacDonald and the resurgent Robbie Lawler are skyrocketing up. It’s anybody’s ball game right now.

It’s just the natural changing in the landscape of any division in any fighting organization. Guys get old and younger fighters get better. Whittaker is only 23 and has the potential to go far. He needs this win in a big way, otherwise he sits at 2-2 in the UFC and that doesn’t bode well. TUF winners have extra pressure on them because…well, they won TUF. A big criticism of that show is the quality of fighters who win or compete just isn’t up to par with UFC veterans. We’ll see where Whittaker stands after his bout with Thompson. Thompson, on the other hand, is 31 and still has time to build on his current two fight win streak and make a serious run. First though, he has to show he can do more than just throw flashy kicks, however effective they may be. The first “M” in MMA stands for “mixed” and he is hugely reliant on Tae Kwon Do and kickboxing techniques. Some guys will come along that can neutralize his leg attacks (Matt Brown), so he has to be better in other areas. This fight will tell us a lot about where both guys stand, and at this point in their careers, Thompson is probably just a bit better.

Prediction – Thompson

Dan is a new addition to the InsideFights team. When not teaching at the local college during his day job, he likes to ride his fixed gear bicycle around town. Given the choice, he'd rather bike than drive any day (ride on!). He also enjoys trying new craft beers and vegetarian/vegan foods, playing guitar, writing fiction and of course, catching up on all things MMA. Dan currently lives in Los Angeles with his awesome wife.