Saturday night presents an interesting dilemma for boxing fans due to competing cards on different networks. Although fans are used to HBO and Showtime running simultaneous fights, this night presents competition between Showtime and NBC Sports Network where both broadcasts have lineups that are intriguing for various reasons. In fact, it is a very tough call as to which card to focus on in this piece. Since Showtime and Showtime Extreme will be bringing fight fans four guaranteed bouts while NBC Sports is only guaranteeing two fights, we will start with the premium network.
Showtime’s card originates from Bayamon, Puerto Rico and its main event features the junior welterweight champion (and holder of the Ring Magazine, WBC and WBA super titles), Danny Garcia (27-0), defending against Mauricio Herrera (20-3). The promoters of this fight are billing this as a “homecoming” for Garcia as his family roots are in Puerto Rico. The real selling point though is that Garcia is a young champion on the rise who has terrific boxing skills and good punching power. More importantly, he seems to share that un-nameable quality that Timothy Bradley has: all they do is win. Garcia, showed this quality by not only beating an over-the-weight Erik Morales for his first 140 pound title (and eliminating a Morales that tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in the third round of their rematch), but by scoring two high-profile upsets. First, after winning the WBC title, Garcia was a big underdog when agreed to face WBA titlist Amir Khan in a unification bout as a late substitute. Despite the long odds and terrible start to the bout where Khan busted him open in the second round, Garcia kept fighting and dropped Khan in the third before stopping him in the fourth. Then, in his last bout, Garcia became the undisputed 140 pound champion when he again beat the odds and dropped and outpointed the feared puncher Lucas Matthysse.
Herrera, on the other hand, is not as heralded. The two qualities that got him this coveted assignment are that he is known as a good action fighter who makes quality television fights and he holds a victory over WBO junior welterweight titlist (and HBO staple) Ruslan Provodnikov. As to the first quality, Herrera has actually proved his status as a blood and guts type fighter in a 2012 loss to Mike Alvarado and a 2012 win over Ji-Hoon Kim. The 2011 win over Provodnikov was also a good action fight. However, it has been three years since that bout and memories maybe somewhat hazy: ESPN2 analyst Teddy Atlas, many other boxing experts and this author scored the bout for Provodnikov. It should also be noted that Herrera’s two other losses, to Mike Anchondo and Karim Mayfield, involved Herrera being outboxed by more technical fighters.
Garcia is certainly more technical. In fact, except for height and reach, Garcia has the advantage in almost every category. The Philadelphian champion has also not only faced, but succeeded, against a level of opposition Herrera has not even faced. For those reasons, Garcia is a big favorite: www.bovada.lv lists the champion at -1200 while you can get +700 on the challenger. To add to all of Garcia’s advantages, he should be cheered on against a Mexican by his fellow Puerto Ricans… Garcia is the pick.
The co-featured bout is an intriguing crossroads bout that could be as non-competitive as the main event figures to be. However, either fighter could be the one that dominates. This fight features undefeated heavyweight prospect and Olympic Bronze Medalist Deontay Wilder (30-0) facing former prospect Malik Scott (36-1-1). The fighters are a fascinating contrast. Wilder has had 30 fights in five years and while his activity is great and he has blasted out all of his opponents in four rounds or less. In addition to never even going past four rounds, the quality of Wilder’s opposition can be labeled as “suspect” at best and is more accurately described as woeful. Scott, on the other hand, has 38 fights over the course of over 13 years and most of those went the eight round or ten round distance. He is also an extremely cautious boxer whose punch output can be best described as minimal. While his level of opposition as an undefeated prospect was also suspect, he has recently stepped up but with mixed results. He won an eight round decision over once-beaten Bowie Tupuo, was saddled with a draw against the main event-er of the NBC Sports show, Vyacheslav “Czar” Glazkov (a fight many thought Scott deserved t win), and was stopped (somewhat controversially) by Derek Chisora. Basically, if Scott dominates, it is expected that the pace will be slow and his boxing style will frustrate Wilder to win a decision. If Wilder dominates, he likely lands his monster right hand and ends the night early. The oddsmakers believ the later is more likely; Bovada has Wilder at -500 and Scott at +350. Scott is a good price but Chisora rocked Scott a couple of times and he is not nearly the puncher Wilder is… Wilder is the pick.
Two undercard bouts will be featured on Showtime Extreme. The first fight features middleweight contender Danny Jacobs (26-1) continuing his comeback from cancer and facing Milton Nunez (26-9-1). Jacobs is -5000 and Nunez is +1400. This is bridge-jumper bet territory… Jacobs is the pick. The other prelim bout needs more description. It is the rematch between two two-division titlists who first met over five years ago. In their first fight, the then undefeated Puerto Rican 122 pound prospect Juan Manuel Lopez (33-3) destroyed then WBO junior bantamweight titlist Daniel Ponce de Leon (45-5) in one round to take the title. Following that bout, Lopez continued to roll along picking up notable victories against Rogers Mtagwa, Steven Lueveno, Bernabe Concepcion and Rafael Marquez as well as a title at featherweight. Ponce de Leon, on the other hand, seemed to decline as he had most of his fights outside of the bright lights of US television and would pick up losses to Yuriorkis Gamboa and Adrien Broner. At some point, though, they flipped places. Lopez was stopped twice and lost his featherweight title in brutal bouts with Orlando Salido while Ponce de Leon was able to win a featherweight title with a decision win over Jhonny Gonzalez. Both guys lost their last notable bouts: Lopez was stopped in four by Mikey Garcia while Ponce de Leon was stopped in nine by Abner Mares. It is generally thought that Ponce de Leon has more left in the tank simply because Lopez has fallen so far and looked so bad in his recent bouts. In fact, Lopez was dropped by promoter Top Rank after not making weight and getting stopped in the Garcia bout. Some in the boxing world think Lopez is so far gone that they are concerned for his health. Despite that, it is hard to shake the memory of Lopez just running over Ponce de Leon in less than three minutes and it should be noted that the fight is at 130 pounds which may help Lopez who struggled mightily to make lower weights.. Bovada has Ponce de Leon at -200 and Lopez at +160. Tough fight to pick but remember this, Ponce de Leon is a big puncher too and Lopez has no defense or legs at this point… Ponce de Leon is the pick.
NBC Sports’ main event features what figures to be a tightly contested heavyweight bout when former light heavyweight titlist and cruiserweight champion Tomasz Adamek (49-2) faces Czar Glazkov (16-0-1) from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. Everyone expects a close fight because Adamek has the advantages in experience and boxing skills but Glazkov, a former Olympic Bronze Medalist, is taller and probably a step quicker than the Polish veteran. It is expected to be so close that Bovada lists it as a pick ‘em. Yes, an actual even money fight! It should also be said that it should be a good action fight as Adamek is seemingly never in a bad fight and Glazkov will look to be aggressive in this bout. While this is a massive step-up for Glazkov, who did not look great against Scott, Adamek has also not looked very good recently (especially in close wins over Eddie Chambers and Steve Cunningham) and may be near the end of the line… Glazkov is the pick.
The undercard features fights that do not figure to be that exciting but there are gambling lines on them so we should take a brief look. In a light heavyweight bout, Isaac Chilemba (21-2-2) looks to continue to rebound from a draw and a loss in title elimination bouts in England against Tony Bellew when he faces Denis Grachev (13-2-1). Grachev looked like the goods when he knocked out prospect Ismayl Sillah but has since lost to Lucian Bute (who may have been a spent bullet) and was knocked out in one round against Edwin Rodriguez. Chilemba is a slight favorite (-150 with Grachev at +120 on Bovada) and his experience should carry the day… Chilemba is the pick. The other bout is a complete head-scratcher and features welterweights Kermit Citron (34-5-2) and Ronald Cruz (20-2). Cruz was an undefeated prospect and a good ticket settler in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania but was defeated by Antoine Smith and Ray Nahr. He has won three in a row and should be fighting in front of some of his fans. Citron is just a complete enigma at this point and despite being a good puncher, he just doesn’t do enough to win fights and is only two fights removed from a two year retirement. Probably because Citron has a win over Smith, Bovada has him as a -135 favorite (Cruz is at +105). But Cruz is at home and is fresher at seven years younger and many less tough fights… Cruz is the pick.
If seven picks is not enough for you, there are two easy picks from fights in England with lines on them. Take Kell Brook (31-0) over Alvaro Robles (17-2) at -5000 and Tony Bellew (20-2-1) over Valery Brudov (39-4) at -2000.
Author’s Record for the Year: 5-3 (Last week I took a loss going for an upset with Nihito Arakawa [who was soundly outpointed by Jorge Linares] but got three wins with Canelo, Santa Cruz and Sergio Thompson).
Author’s Record for 2013: 70-24-6
