UFC 171 Preview – Ovince St. Preux vs. Nikita Krylov

Previews

Kicking off the stacked main card at UFC 171 are two of the new crop of light-heavies in the UFC. Ovince St. Preux, last seen finishing Cody Donovan in the first round by KO, meets Nikita Krylov, who bounced back from a loss in his UFC debut by crushing Walt Harris in under 30 seconds with a head kick and follow up punches.

Fighter Summary

Ovince St. Preux (14-5 overall, 2-0 UFC)

Strengths: Wrestling, powerful hands, gas tank

Weaknesses: Overeager at times

Nikita Krylov (16-3 overall, 1-1 UFC)

Strengths: Finishes fights, great submissions, big KO power

Weaknesses: Takes risks to earn the finish

Fight Breakdown – This one has the potential to be fight of the night, even with Hendricks/Lawler and Condit/Woodley on the card. It’s just not very likely to happen because of the prowess of both St. Preux and Krylov. These guys can bang in the stand up and on the ground, and both are capable of sinking in a submission at almost any point of the fight. Bottom line: we’re not likely to see a decision with these two.

One big reason is Krylov finishes fights. He’s never, not once in his professional career, won a fight by decision and he’s got 16 victories to his name. That’s impressive. He can hold his own in the stand-up, but his bread and butter is working on the ground to set up a submission. His three losses have also been stoppages (two submissions and one KO) so there is a tendency for him to take some risks at times.

St. Preux can capitalize on that by using his quickness and dancing in and out to land a variety of strikes. He will probably have the advantage in overall quickness and athleticism, but he can’t be lulled into anything because Krylov utilizes kicks well as shown in his win over Harris. Krylov has a nice front kick and employs solid leg kicks as well. That would do a lot to slow St. Preux down and keep him a bit more wary. OSP is going to be respectful of Krylov’s striking, but once he realizes he has the upper hand, he’s going to get more comfortable and look to set up some power shots.

If Krylov does get tagged, he has to ignore all human instinct and shoot for a takedown immediately. He has to latch onto OSP until he recovers because if OSP even sniffs an opportunity, he’ll find a way to get Krylov down in a disadvantageous position in a hurry. St. Preux has won a lot of fights by stunning guys so that they back up and cover up, and he pounces on them and takes their backs to unleash his devastating ground and pound. That’s one thing Krylov absolutely has to avoid if he is going to stand a chance. OSP is likely to tag him at least once or twice at some point during the fight, and how Krylov reacts to that will be critical.

What Krylov really needs to do is find a way to put St. Preux on his back. That’s easier said than done considering St. Preux is a strong wrestler and has great takedown defense. Krylov is very crafty with his submissions, but he has to get OSP down first. The best way to do that would be to catch him with a big strike somewhere to put him on the defensive. Krylov probably doesn’t have the explosiveness to simply shoot in and earn a takedown from a standstill. But if he can manage to take St. Preux down and keep him there, he probably wins the fight.

Key to Victory: Who can land first?

As simple as that sounds, it really could be the key to who wins. Both of them are explosive strikers and have power in all four limbs. If Krylov tags OSP first, it could do a lot to throw him off of his game and Krylov could turn it into a grinder and possibly set up a submission later in the fight. If OSP catches Krylov at any point in the fight, Krylov better have a response because St. Preux is going to capitalize and make the ref do the ants-in-his-pants dance in trying to decide if/when to stop the fight. Whoever is consistently quicker to the punch/kick is going to have an easier time of things.

Why It Matters – This is basically an audition for Top 15 status in the LHW division. St. Preux is on a three fight win streak and has won both of his UFC fights in impressive fashion. His last loss was a decision to Gegard Mousasi, who just fought in a title eliminator against Lyoto Machida. So OSP has the goods to make some moves, and if he delivers another impressive performance against Krylov, he’s almost certainly going to get someone in the top 15-10 range.

Krylov, despite this being his 20th professional fight, is only 22 years old. Win, lose or draw, the kid has a bright future in MMA, but hopefully he’s paying attention to the guy in the main event. Robbie Lawler had a hell of a journey to finally get a shot at UFC gold, and Krylov may want to take note of what can happen to a young fighter with unfulfilled promise. He is young, yes, but the time for winning in MMA is always right now and OSP is a winnable fight for him. We’re going to get a good idea of where Krylov is right now. He’s either going to struggle and find areas that need some drastic improvement, or he’s going to put on a show and stun both OSP and the MMA world. At this point, St. Preux is probably just a bit too good for Krylov and he’s going to come out with the win.

Prediction – Ovince St. Preux

Dan is a new addition to the InsideFights team. When not teaching at the local college during his day job, he likes to ride his fixed gear bicycle around town. Given the choice, he'd rather bike than drive any day (ride on!). He also enjoys trying new craft beers and vegetarian/vegan foods, playing guitar, writing fiction and of course, catching up on all things MMA. Dan currently lives in Los Angeles with his awesome wife.