Mauricio Rua (22-8, 6-6 UFC) vs. Dan Henderson (29-11, 6-5 UFC)
The main event of UFC Fight Night 38 is a rematch of what may be the greatest fight in UFC history as former champions Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and Dan Henderson step inside the Octagon to do battle for five more rounds. Henderson defeated Rua in a close fight at UFC 139 in November 2011. Rua is looking to make it two straight wins after knocking out James Te Huna at UFC Fight Night 33 in December. He is 2-3 over his last five fights. Henderson is looking to snap a three-fight losing skid as he is coming off a knockout loss to Vitor Belfort at UFC Fight Night 32 in November. He is also 2-3 over his last five fights.
Fight Breakdown- Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and former PRIDE and Strikeforce Champion Dan Henderson met in a five-round main event at UFC 139 in November 2011. Fans were expecting a hard-hitting battle that had the potential for a knockout ending, but what ended up happening was even greater, and when the 25 minutes were up, we had witnessed perhaps the greatest fight in MMA history. They beat the crap out of each other. They got tired. They battled through adversity. They bloodied each other up. They both went to the hospital and even took a picture together there. They went through hell-and-back. Henderson was in control for the first three rounds before Rua made a valiant comeback in the final two rounds. It was close, but when all was said and done, it was Henderson taking home the win by unanimous decision. It was a fateful night and neither man has been the same since then. They will try to recreate the magic when they step into the Octagon on Sunday night in Natal, Brazil for rounds six through ten as both look to get themselves back on track in their careers.
Rua was a star of the PRIDE promotion in Japan, losing just once in thirteen fights under the PRIDE banner, and the one loss was due to a broken arm that Rua suffered when trying to stop a takedown from Mark Coleman. Rua looked to be on his way to fighting for the PRIDE Middleweight Championship held by Henderson, but the promotion was bought out by the UFC. Rua made his UFC debut at UFC 76 in September 2007 against Forrest Griffin, and a win likely would’ve gotten him a title shot. However, Griffin pulled off the upset winning by submission with just 15 seconds left, and Rua found himself 0-1 in the UFC. Knee injuries kept him out of action for over a year, but he came back with back-to-back knockout wins over UFC Hall Of Famers Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell, earning him a title shot. He fought for the title at UFC 104 in October 2009 but lost a controversial decision to the champion, Lyoto Machida. They rematched, and this time Rua knocked Machida out to become the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. He lost it in his first defense to Jon Jones, but avenged his loss to Griffin in his next bout. Then came the fight with Henderson and a chance for another title shot, but Henderson won. Rua beat Brandon Vera in his next fight, but then lost back-to-back fights to Alexander Gustafsson and Chael Sonnen. He got back into the win column with a knockout win over James Te Huna in December.
Henderson’s win over Rua was the start of his third stint with the UFC as he was returning after going to Strikeforce and becoming the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion. The win over Rua was setting Henderson up for another chance at becoming the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but a knee injury forced him out of his title opportunity against Jon Jones at UFC 151, the only event in UFC history to be cancelled, and Henderson played a big part in that. Things haven’t been the same for Henderson since as the injury kept him from competing in 2012, and he has lost three straight fights since the win over Rua in November 2011. He dropped back-to-back split decisions to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, and then suffered the first knockout loss of his career at the hands of Vitor Belfort at UFC Fight Night 32 in November. Despite the losing streak, Henderson recently signed a new six-fight contract with the UFC though it came with a pay cut. However, his fighting future past this fight is now in question with the recent trend of banning testosterone replacement therapy exemptions as Henderson has been under use of it. If this is perhaps the last time we see Henderson, at least for a little while, he will be looking to go out with a bang and score a second win over Rua, as he has never beaten a single opponent twice in his career.
The knee injuries have caught up to Rua as he doesn’t have the same explosivness as he used to, and it has hurt his conditioning, but he showed glimpses of the old Shogun in his win over Te Huna. He changed training camps prior to that bout, and he continues with the new camp for this bout, training alongside the likes of UFC fighters Demian Maia and Daniel Sarafian. Rua should know what Henderson’s game plan is coming into this fight as Henderson has been primarily looking for the big right hand for the knockout. Henderson stalks his opponents and he still has gigantic power in that right hand. He has all but abandoned his takedown game, and it was actually Rua who took over the first fight late with the takedowns. Henderson will want to make this fight into a brawl once again and Shogun is a willing foe. Henderson has been known for his iron chin, but at 43-years-old, he suffered his first knockout at the vicious hands and feet of Vitor Belfort, so that chin is now in question. If it isn’t gone he will be willing to take the punches of Rua. If it is gone, Rua will find a way to make him pay whether it is with knees in the clinch or power left hooks like the one he finished Te Huna with.
Much like the first fight, conditioning will play a huge factor in this fight. Both men got very tired the first-go-around, and if this one goes the full 25 minutes, that will likely happen again. Rua got tired quicker between the two, but he also came back the strongest late when Henderson began to gas. They both got a little sloppy, but that is what help made their first fight so much fun and memorable. Rua was able to score the takedowns late and nearly used them to pull off the win. If he finds himself able to do the same and achieve the mount this time, he will do what he needs to do to attempt to finish this fight off. If both mens’ chins hold up, this fight will probably go the same as the first fight. Henderson will control early, Rua will take over late, and it will go to the judges again. However, recent performances dictate the outcome will be different. Maybe not the winner, but that a finish is coming in this fight. Rua will need to initate the clinch by using leg kicks to set up the tie-ups, and if Henderson’s chin is truly gone, knees will be the effective way to win. Henderson will stalk with the big right hand, and a counter opening will be where he looks to make it land. I see the right hand landing in the middle stages of the fight and Henderson putting an end to his losing skid.
Why It Matters- This is a battle for relevancy in the light heavyweight division. Both men are truly at a crossroads in their career. A win for Rua could actually start his next climb towards earning another title shot. He would likely need two more wins after this if he were to defeat Henderson, but a two-fight win streak is a solid start. A loss would probably mean the end of any chance Rua has at ever making a run at 205 pounds, but it may convince him to drop to middleweight for a fresh start like his former rival, Lyoto Machida. We may be closing in on the twilight of the career of Dan Henderson, and a fourth straight loss, coupled with the recent ban of TRT may have him thinking twice about continuing. There is no question that he was at least planning on fighting for a few more years seeing as he signed the new six-fight contract, but that could be up in the air. A win would certainly make it a much harder decision for Henderson. Seeing as there is always the chance this could be his final fight, Henderson would love to end it with a win if that were to be the case.
Prediction- Henderson
