This was a wild Friday afternoon in the UFC as Big Nog got emphatically knocked out for the second time in his career. Roy Nelson made it a trio of fighters to have finished the former #1 heavyweight in the world, and the only man to hold both the Pride and UFC heavyweight titles. Many have felt it’s time for the elder statesman of Brazilian MMA to walk away from the sport and I’m one of them; Big Nog has nothing left to accomplish and walks away one of the best five heavyweights to ever step into an MMA arena.
Now it’s time to figure out where the more intriguing winners, and losers, from tonight’s card go.
Winners
Roy Nelson vs. Ben Rothwell – Nelson has more first round knockouts than any heavyweight in UFC history for good reason; he’s got the best one shot KO in MMA. At least for five minutes. His general lack of fitness as a pro fighter limits him, mainly allowing anyone who doesn’t get hit by that right in the first to take the next two by sticking and moving. He’s also been around long enough that a ton of useful, interesting matchups also double as rematches. And a lot of those matchups, like Brendan Schaub or Matt Mitrione, he already finished in awesome fashion. I could watch Schaub get his lights tuned off all day, as could many MMA fans, but the fact is we don’t need a rematch. It would make sense but how do you sell it? Which is why Rothwell makes sense here. He’s a fresh matchup and has the sort of style that would make for a great fight. Brandon Vera, if he somehow manages to get another fight in the UFC (He hasn’t been officially released, even after Rothwell stopped him in Milwaukee), could make sense in this slot too. Mark Hunt’s another likely candidate for this slot, too. Nelson doesn’t have a ton of options at this point, mainly because he’s faced off against most of the division already.
Clay Guida vs. the winner of Dustin Poirier vs. Akira Corissani – Poirier has a tough but winnable fight against someone he should reasonably outclass in Corissani. He’s potentially a fight away from a title shot and a lot of the big names are tied up. Guida would make for a good “If Dustin wins, he’s fighting Jose Aldo” type of fight. If Guida comes out fighting like he did Friday he’ll be back in the good graces of fight fans again. This looked like the “take no prisoners, throw hands and see what happens” Guida we all loved instead of the “take top position and do absolutely nothing” fighter he became and got appropriately booed for. If he can notch out a couple wins this way he’ll get a title shot, or reasonably close, because the UFC rewards good wins over good competition if they’re exciting and sellable. This version of Guida gets lamped by Jose Aldo in short order … but it’ll be a wild ride until that happens.
Ramsey Nijem vs. the winner of Erik Koch/Daron Cruickshank – Nijem has all the talent to potentially contend in the deep waters of the division but he doesn’t have the chin for it. He got a great win on Friday but I think his chin keeps him from getting into title contention. It’s why he’s a solid heat check guy; he’ll push the pace and snuff out guys who aren’t elite BUT he has one big flaw that’ll keep him from the deep waters. Koch and Cruickshank are potentially in the same boat and any combination of these guys just oozes fireworks.
Ryan LaFlare vs. the winner of Kyle Noke vs. Patrick Cote – Sometimes a nut shot can make all the difference in the world. LaFlare got a good win over a nice heat check guy in John Howard but not quite the dominant win he was supposed to get. If he blows Howard out of the water here he gets a Top 10 matchup … he got the win but didn’t quite destroy him. LaFlare looked like he isn’t ready for an elite matchup, or even a fringe Top 10 fighter, right now. And maybe not for his next fight, either. But it’ll be soon. He looks like he’s not quite ready for the big time … it reminded me of Weidman/Maia at the second Fox show. You can see where the talent will take him … but he’s not quite ready. He’s 30 so it’s going to happen soon; he needs another good veteran heat check kind of guy and the winner of Noke/Cote will be a nice step up (but not a huge one) from Howard.
Jared Rosholt vs. the winner of Viktor Pešta vs. Ruslan Magomedov – Rosholt got the win in bowling shoe ugly fashion but it’s still a win. He has the wrestling pedigree but so far he doesn’t look like he can become an elite talent. That “X factor” doesn’t seem to be there that a guy like Cain Velasquez, et al, have. His ceiling looks about like a fringe Top 10 fighter or so; his camp has a ton of stock in him being an elite fighter but I just don’t see it. So my guess is he gets another fighter early in their careers and Pesta/Magomedov feels about right for Rosholt’s third UFC fight. He’s still young and could put it together as a fighter, of course, but so far I’m not seeing it. Until he really shows he has enough cardio to fight three hard rounds without gassing we really won’t know.
Thales Leites vs. the winner of Yoel Romero vs. Brad Tavares – Who the hell thought Thales Leites would look like a title contender on the rise again in 2014? No one besides Thales Leites, who got back into the UFC as a late replacement and as a courtesy to Jose Aldo in Brazil. He has looked like an absolute killer again and looks like the same fighter who earned his way to a horrible, horrible title fight against Anderson Silva many moons ago.
Right now another win and he’s in a title eliminator in 2014, crazy enough. It would’ve been crazier if Anderson Silva was still champion, of course, but he’d make for an interesting matchup with Chris Weidman as well. Romero and Tavares will be in the same spot with a win next Saturday as well. Any combination would be a nice feature fight on a bigger card or a decent choice to headline a Fight Night card.
Losers
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Ricardo Lamas – Kawajiri looked like a title contender in the making but his body doesn’t have it in him anymore. That’s what Guida showed us; he looked old and slow, his mind wanting to do something but his body not able to. Lamas is coming off a title shot loss but could rebound and get into the title picture with a win … as well as Jose Aldo’s expected move to lightweight in the next year or so. If this was a fluke awful performance from Kawajiri it’ll show against Lamas. The loser of Poirier/Corissani might work in this slot, as well, depending on schedules.
John Howard vs. the loser of Cote/Noke – Howard had spurts against LaFlare where he looked great and up until he took one to the nuts in the second he looked like he was going to potentially pull off an upset. Sometimes it’s a good fight move to “accidentally” land one to the junk, it seems. Howard still has some use and the loser of Cote/Noke against him would be a fairly solid undercard fight.
Beneil Dariush vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg – Dariush had a heat check and failed. It’s not a bad thing, of course, as sometimes you can chalk it up to either a bad performance on his part or a brilliant one from Nijem. Dariush got tossed to a shark and was eaten up; not a bad thing and in his second fight it’s not the worst thing to happen in his career. Plenty of great guys stumble in their second fight in the UFC and Dariush is going to take a step back in his next fight. IVF is in a similar spot and it makes sense in an odd way for them to fight. He’s going to face someone like IVF or Jon Tuck, Kevin Lee, et al. Dariush is going to take a step back, off the main card and back to the undercard prelims against someone in a similar spot.
Daniel Omielańczuk vs. Shawn Jordan – We didn’t get to see a ton from Omielanczuk, as Rosholt took a dominant wrestle heavy win. Jordan got his lights turned out recently against Matt Mitrione as another of the ‘great athlete, not so great fighter’ tales of the heavyweight division. Jordan was poised to become a heavyweight contender and had the athletic pedigree the UFC loves to hype up … and then he didn’t take that next step. Omielanczuk did get a win in the UFC, though, and with the UFC eyeing a card in Poland having a native son there would be worth it. I’m shocked he didn’t get on the last Chicago card, actually, but if the UFC wants to get an Eastern European card done they’ll need someone like him on it. Jordan would make for a good standup affair. Otherwise he’s looking at someone like Guto Inocente or a debuting heavyweight into the UFC.
Retirement
Antonio Rogerio Nogeuira – Big Nog has done everything possible in the sport and has nothing left to prove. If there was a true MMA Hall of Fame he’d be a first ballot inductee. He’ll be in the UFC’s version soon enough as well. He’s as good an ambassador for the sport as it gets, having learned English fluently and a true star in his native Brazil. Dana had the “you should think about retiring speech” with him once and got a reprieve. The legendary chin of Big Nog is done and there’s no point of serving him up to take more punishment than he deserves.
Dana White has always spoken of not wanting to make “bad money” by serving up guys who shouldn’t be fighting anymore on cards. This is one of those moments he needs to move Big Nog into an official “UFC Ambassador” type role to Brazil, let him be a Brazilian Dana White for “TUF: Brazil” and bring him out to wave to crowds, et al, as an elder statesman of the sport. But don’t put him in the cage again; he’s officially got nothing left.
