Two former title challengers to Ronda Rousey’s reign as UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion look to get back into contention for another shot in the co-main event of Saturday’s UFC On FOX event as Miesha Tate squares off against Liz Carmouche. Tate is coming off her loss to Rousey at UFC 168 in December, and she is actually looking to end a two-fight losing streak. She is just 1-3 over her last four fights after winning six straight. Carmouche has lost two of her last three fights and is looking to get back into the win column after dropping a decision to Alexis Davis in November. She is just 3-4 over her last seven fights after starting her career with six straight wins.
Fight Breakdown- Tate and Carmouche were originally scheduled to meet on another FOX event, at UFC On FOX 8 last July in Seattle. Tate was pulled from that bout to coach The Ultimate Fighter 18 against Ronda Rousey after Cat Zingano suffered a major knee injury, and Carmouche ended up taking on Jessica Andrade. Carmouche defeated Andrade in the second round by TKO. Tate went on to lose to Rousey at UFC 168 in December while Carmouche lost her next fight to Alexis Davis at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 in November. With both ladies coming off of losses and sliding in the rankings, now seemed like a better time than ever to revisit the booking, and they get the co-main event slot on this card as opposed to the opener in their prior booking. Tate is definitely the biggest star in the women’s bantamweight division not named Ronda Rousey, and Carmouche may be the next biggest star in the division, so they have both had plenty of exposure and the recognition that deserves to co-main event a fight card.
Tate is a former Strikeforce Women’s Bantamweight Champion, having won the title from Marloes Coenen in July 2011. There was a chance that she could have won it from Carmouche as Carmouche had fought Coenen prior to her defense against Tate, but Carmouche came up short and was submitted in the fourth round by Coenen. Tate went on to lose the title to Rousey when they fought for the first time in Strikeforce. Carmouche was lucky enough to get the first chance at Rousey when Rousey was made the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion as she met Rousey at UFC 157 in February 2013 in the first-ever UFC women’s bout. Carmouche took it to Rousey early but fell victim to the armbar in the first round. When Tate and Rousey fought for the second time in December, Tate became the first, and only, woman to get past the first round with Rousey. Though she made it to the third round, Tate was dominated by Rousey and was submitted with the armbar for the second time. They won “Fight Of The Night” honors, but Tate was visibly heartbroken that she was unable to get past Rousey. She gets that chance to start a fresh new journey to a title shot against Carmouche, but there is no question both women have a long journey ahead of them.
Neither woman is especially dangerous on their feet, but they are both good grapplers and will be using their striking to set up takedown opportunities. Tate tends to get a little wild on her feet, but she uses that to close the distance and set up clinches to work for takedowns. She is aggressive and applies pressure and that will be good against a foe like Carmouche as she isn’t quite developed there. Carmouche is strong, but she isn’t the athlete that Rousey is and doesn’t have the size that Zingano has, so Tate will be willing to attempt to match her strength. Tate has more technique in the grappling department, but Carmouche’s strength may override that. Tate is solid in scrambles, and if she can get top position, she has solid ground-and-pound. The likewise is said with Carmouche as she is solid with her striking from the top, so establishing top position will be the big key factor in this fight. Tate has solid submission skills as well and Carmouche isn’t as advanced in submissions. This is a close fight to pick, but Tate’s experience and slight edges in the wrestling, striking and submission games should get her past the strength that Carmouche has. It likely goes the distance, and neither have trouble going 15 minutes. Tate takes this on the scorecards.
Why It Matters- The loser of this fight will now have lost three fights in the UFC. Tate would be 0-3 with a loss and Carmouche would be 1-3 with one. Normally that would signal the possibility of a cut from the roster, but that is unlikely here. Tate is a huge star in the women’s bantamweight division, and Carmouche made herself into a good name when she challenged Rousey for the title. The loser, though, will find themselves in a tough spot as the women’s roster begins to expand. Both want more title opportunities, and there is that chance the division could become wide open in the future, but it will take big wins to get them back into contention. The winner will get back on that path, and the loser will be forced to start an even longer journey back towards the top. This is a big and important fight for both women.
Prediction- Tate
