Five For Fighting (UFC on Fox 11 Edition) – Fights To Make After Thiago Alves’s Return, Fabricio Werdum’s Title Contention, Khabib Nurmagomedov’s Domination and More!

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Two events in one week means two of these columns in as much time … the good thing, with UFC 172 up this week as well, means that a lot of fighters are going to be able to get matched up in nearly every division that matters really soon. Joe Silva and Sean Shelby now have the benefit of having a lot of fighters coming off wins (and losses) to throw back into the long term mix. Now, as always after every card, it’s time to play matchmaker and figure out what’s next for the most intriguing winners (and losers) from Saturday’s card.

Winners

Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez – Coming in we knew the main event would be for a title shot and it makes an insane amount of sense. Cain isn’t going to lose any sleep over Werdum’s newly found awesome gas tank, of course, but Werdum’s ground game is still stellar enough that Cain’s standup is going to be interesting to see against Werdum’s completed standup attack.

Meisha Tate vs. Sara McMann – Tate’s lost to Ronda twice and needs an extended, Urijah Faber type win streak to get a third. A close decision win streak won’t do it. McMann at least has a chance of fighting Ronda again sometime in the near future. The women’s division is so shallow that this is arguably the only fight that makes sense for Tate right now. Crazy to think it was Tate’s third fight in the UFC, and coming off a title loss, yet was somehow her first win in the company and the first fight in the UFC that she hasn’t been finished in.

Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury – When Cerrone’s on his game he’s a Top 3 lightweight. He has a ton of talent and his style of aggression and technical fighting make him a tough, tough out. But he has a loss to Anthony Pettis already, a stomping that’ll make him a tough sell for a rematch right now. But give him a couple more finishes and you can sell him as revitalized, et al. And right now you need someone legitimate for Myles Jury to see if he’s ready to move up into a potential title eliminator.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. the winner of Rustam Khabilov/Benson Henderson – Ideally he’d get the winner of Gil Melendez/Anthony Pettis … if we weren’t two season of TUF away from that debuting. Thus we’re stuck with keeping him busy with a true title eliminator until then. We also want to keep him away from anyone who could derail him and not earn a title shot in the process, thus my ideal choice of the winner of Rustam Khabilov/Benson Henderson isn’t happening most likely (if Benson Henderson somehow manages to win).

Thus Khabib has a problem; we know he’s one of the top 4-5 lightweights in the world. He should be fighting for a title next. But with Pettis/Melendez and TUF gumming up the works he could get 2-3 fights in between now and a title fight. Nate Diaz would be an ideal matchup here but he’s gunning for a title shot (or nothing at all). TJ Grant would be a good pick here as well. Donald Cerrone would be the perfect slot but they’re teammates and Jackson’s policy is to not fight one another until it’s for a belt.  Based on rankings Myles Jury could be a fit here, as well, but I think they keep these two separated for a while.

Yoel Romero vs. Vitor Belfort – The Jesus Craziness of this fight would be worth it in and of itself. It all depends if Belfort is given the promised title shot that he pulled out of because of the TRT debacle. Tim Kennedy would make for a great test, as well, as really at this point Romero is a Top 10 win away from a title shot. My best guess would be that if Belfort gets a title shot, like promised, the winner of Gegard Mousasi vs. Mark Munoz makes a ton of sense in this slot as well. Romero needs one more win against a Top 10 caliber opponent and you can put him into a title fight.

Thiago Alves vs. Patrick Cote – Two years removed from a cage and he looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. To be fair Seth Baczynski was a perfect opponent for him, with no threat of the ground game and most likely willing to stand with him. Alves’s timing looked on par, which was the big thing. He looked like he wasn’t far removed from being a Top 10 caliber fighter again. I wouldn’t rank him anywhere near that high, of course, but I’ll concede that with another win he should be there. Cote is a nice step up in competition; it’s a tough but winnable fight for him. I could see Ryan LaFlare being in this spot, if only if the UFC wants to get him into the Top 10 sooner than later, as well. Alves has a name and is still young enough to get a couple wins, potentially make another run into the title mix. This was a great tune up and right now we need to find out how much going under the knife four times for four major injuries took out of his upside. He still has the tools and the power … but how much explosiveness is gone?

Alves proved that fighters who are coming off injuries could use a tune up fight, which is a good thing. Now it’s a matter of bringing him back up with another winnable fight. Alves worked off most of the cage corrosion he had … but there’s still some left. Another win, probably by the end of the summer, and we’ll get the most accurate picture we can of Alves’s future.

Jordan Mein vs. Stephen Thompson – Mein came out after almost exactly a year removed from a TKO loss to Matt Brown and got a good, solid win. He took the first two rounds convincingly and was cruising for the third until Hernani Perpetuo made a fight of it. For as many fights as Mein has it shows he’s got a lot to learn in terms of closing out a decision. That’s something he’ll learn in a couple fights but you can see his ceiling. He looks like he’s going to top out as an elite level, Top 5 caliber fighter.

Maybe not hold a title … but he’ll fight for one or get very close to that point. He’s just some time removed from that … but right now he needs another step up in competition. Stephen Thompson is in near the exact same spot and usually in the UFC these kinds of fights make sense for career advancement. The winner of Daniel Sarafian vs. Klichi Kunimoto could make sense, as well, as Mein jumped into the deep end a year ago and found he can hang. That first against Brown showed what he’s capable of. Now the UFC is going to let him marinate a bit, give him tough but winnable fights against guys closer to him.

Derrick Lewis vs. Guto Inocente – Inocente’s been waiting for a fight since the fight with Shane Del Rosario fell apart because of a variety of factors. Inocente hasn’t fought in the UFC yet, either, and at some point he’s going to have to. Lewis looked like a killer against Jack May and heavyweight is an odd division. There are a ton of guys who’ve been around forever … and a ton of guys with very little UFC experience. There’s no middle class of journeyman at this point with a handful of fights. Watch for heavyweights in similar spots in the next month or two; Lewis is going to get someone who’s very early in their UFC stay for his next fight.

Jorge Masvidal vs. the winner of Katsunori Kikuno vs. Tony Ferguson – Masvidal lit up Pat Healy for three rounds and looked like his ceiling is coming into focus. He looked like a Top 10 caliber fighter in the making … but not quite there yet. You can see the ceiling; he’s probably never going to fight for a UFC title but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for him to be that gatekeeper to a title shot fight. The winner of Kikuno/Ferguson makes for a nice step up from Healy in competition level.

Caio Magalhaes vs. Josh Samman – This was scheduled for this card and Samman pulled out due to an injury. Makes sense to go back to it depending on Samman’s time off due to injury.

Losers

Travis Browne vs. the loser of Junior Dos Santos/Stipe Miocic – Browne looked great last year and Werdum showed a lot of holes in his game. He’s still an athletic freak and good enough to get back into title contention with a big win again. This is a loss but it’s not a bad one in the traditional sense; he lasted five rounds and showed a lot of grit in making Werdum earn his title shot. This is a loss he can build from.

The key will be how he uses this loss. This wasn’t the sort of soul-snatching one that’ll leave him a broken husk of a fighter. This was a big fight, nothing more, and Browne came up short. But he didn’t get finished and proved to everyone that he could make it through five rounds. Not very well, obviously, but he made it. This is a fight he’ll learn from in significant ways.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Josh Thomson – RDA got dominated by a guy who’s going to potentially hold a UFC title in the near future. There’s no shame in that. He’s also not far from being right back where he was with another win; lightweight is deep but once the title comes back into the picture we should hopefully see a bunch of title fights in the future. Both Thomson and RDA lost to top contenders but aren’t out of the picture just yet. I could see Jim Miller or Myles Jury in this slot as well.

Edson Barboza vs. the loser of Ross Pearson/Diego Sanchez – Barboza just ventured up into the elite of the division and found he didn’t belong. He didn’t get his doors blown off, as he was even with Cerrone for three minutes, but he’ll need another win before getting another shot against someone in that range again. But he’s deserving of a name and not someone who’s a tune up fight at best. This is the time when he’s graduated from prospect and is now on the track to be a contender. He needs to show he can hang at this level against guys near Cerrone and the loser of Pearson/Sanchez will be in an interesting, desperate place.

Brad Tavares vs. Costas Philippou – Tavares and Philippou got about as far as they should’ve in the modern UFC structure for the middleweight division. They’re both guys who’ll stay a while around the 10-15 ranking and last as gatekeepers to the heart of the division … but never contend for a title or get close to it. Sometimes a fight between two gatekeepers can be fun and interesting.  Tavares has shown himself to have peaked out at as an elite level heat check guy.  He can tell you how high you should be able to rise as a contender, or if you’re a prospect who still needs grooming, but nothing more than that.  It’s a lot higher than we thought coming off of TUF.

Liz Carmouche vs. Raquel Pennington – Carmouche arguably won on Saturday night but the second was close enough that I can make an argument that she won. The big thing is that she looks like she’s on the downside of her UFC career right now. She had her shot at Ronda and missed … and since then has looked like a journeyman, nothing more. Pennington is just another fighter, as well, and Carmouche is riding that Jon Fitch line right now. She needs to be exciting and win a couple fights or she’ll be looking to score a World Series of Fighting Contract sooner than later.

Pat Healy vs. the loser of Jamie Varner/James Krause – I half expect Healy to get cut with his third loss in the UFC and his grinding style. Healy’s just a guy, nothing more, as his overturned win over Jim Miller is looking more like a fluke with each performance in the cage. He’s never dull, though, as he’s had four good fights in four outings while going 0-3 (1). I think as such he gets one more chance against someone who’s in a “win or go home” fight. Varner/Krause will be in that “I think they’re getting cut with a loss” mode as well. If neither of the trio manages to get cut a matchup makes sense on a Fight Pass level fight.

Seth Baczysnki vs. John Howard – Baczynski was a sacrificial lamb and we know his ceiling. He’s an exciting fighter who’ll never break into the Top 10. But guys like him are useful and he could put together another solid run of 3-5 wins before being thrown to the wolves again. Howard’s in a similar spot in that we know his ceiling, we know he’ll never fight for a title (or get anywhere near the title picture) but he can last a while just sticking around as a good undercard hand. This would be a fun fight, a total Fox Sports 1 undercard type of fight.