UFC 172 Preview – Phil Davis vs. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson

Previews

Phil Davis was criticized by Dana White about how he was a contender who didn’t seem to want to fight for a title fight. It was interesting because Davis isn’t that far removed from a potential title shot of his own … but the message was a bit subtle for a lot of people. If Phil Davis wants into the title picture he’s going to have to make himself a contender in more ways than just winning. Sometimes you have to talk your way into the title picture alongside win your way into it.

Now … now he gets the chance to add another notch to his belt as he faces a returning Anthony “Rumble” Johnson as the co-main event at UFC 172.

Fight Breakdown – Phil Davis is known for an explosive wrestling and submission game, as well as an ever improving striking game, but his game plan is going to be simple. Get the takedown, grind in top position and either grab a submission or coast to a three round submission predicated on top game dominance. Johnson isn’t known for his bottom game, nor for having a deadly guard, so Davis’s mindset is going to be to drag him down to the ground and strangle him at his earliest opportunity.

Davis can survive if this is standing for 15 minutes … but Johnson has the clear advantage standing. His explosive striking game can finish Davis at any point and “Mr. Wonderful” can’t get cute or fancy on his feet. Davis is one of the best in the division at adapting a game plan and managing the clock; he knows when to turn it on and exactly when to go on offense to win a close round. It’s what won him the Machida fight.

The key will be if Johnson’s takedown defense is good enough to keep Davis off of him. He’s got game-changing power in his hands, enough to finish Davis, and he needs to keep this standing as long as possible. Johnson’s always reminded me of a more explosive Chuck Liddell and he needs to emulate “The Iceman” by sprawling and brawling in this fight. He needs to spend as little time as possible on his back and make this a kickboxing bout.

Why It Matters – A win here and Phil Davis continues his ascent into the title picture. While he’s at least one to two more wins away from it, mainly because Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier are in line ahead of him, a Cormier loss to Henderson and/or a Gustafsson injury and Davis is in the title picture sooner with a win (especially a finish).

Johnson is making his big return to the UFC after washing out because he couldn’t make weight regularly. Considering it was at 170, and he’s now fighting at 205, it’s something to behold. It’s a great redemptive story and he’s fought his way into being considered a Top 15 light heavyweight outside the UFC. A win here, especially a finish, and he can leapfrog Phil Davis and get into the title picture sooner than later. The UFC does tend to reward guys who notch finishes at the highest level before guys who grind out wins.

Prediction – Davis