Last weekend, boxing fans in the United States celebrated the American holiday by watching a Showtime televised fight card that originated from Montreal, Quebec, Canada. This weekend, HBO continues the globe-trotting by airing two main events from far-off lands. First, on a tape-delayed basis, HBO will air from Macau, China the WBA “super” featherweight title bout between titleholder Simpiwe Vetyeka (26-2-1) and challenger Nonito Donaire (32-2). Then, the action will shift to the live to Wembley Stadium in London, England where the main event will feature the rematch between IBF and WBA “super” super middleweight titlist Carl Froch (32-2) and George Groves (19-1).
Froch-Groves 2 is clearly the marquee fight of the year in the UK, if not Europe. 80,000 fans are expected to fill Britain’s national stadium and it is anticipated that they will make their voices heard in support of the fighter they support, whether that be the Londoner, Groves, or the Nottingham man, Froch. This is because of the highly controversial nature of their November bout. In that fight, where Groves was a five to one underdog, the Londoner floored the more experienced Froch and dominated the early rounds. Froch only managed to begin to gain momentum in the eighth round. When Froch hurt Groves in the ninth, referee Howard Foster prematurely stopped the fight awarding a victory to Froch that was heavily criticized. While it initially appeared that Froch was looking to fight someone else, public pressure and demand eventually led to the rematch being consummated.
Neither fighter has had a fight in the interim so a similar analysis applies here. Froch is the experienced veteran with an awkward style, heavy hands and a good chin. Groves is the faster, younger and more technically skilled boxer. Before the first fight, Froch was considered a big favorite because he had faced the top 168 pound competition in the world (Jean Pascal, Jermain Taylor, Andre Direll, Mikkel Kessler [twice], Arthur Abraham, Glen Johnson, Andre Ward and Lucian Bute) while Groves had fought mostly journeymen with the exception of his close win over amateur rival James Degale. Now though, the two men have had eight plus tough rounds with each other. That benefits both but it really helps Groves because it not only proves he belongs at the top level but also showed he could outbox Froch and hurt the previously thought to be iron-chinned “Cobra.” Similarly, Froch knows he can hurt the Londoner.
Most predictions for this fight are being based on what the predicting parties thought would have happened if Foster had not prematurely stopped the fight. Those who favor Groves in the rematch say that he would have survived the rough spot he was in and would have gone back to outboxing Froch in order to build on the early lead he earned towards a unanimous decision win. Froch supporters say that if Foster did not stop it, Froch probably would have dropped or knocked out Groves shortly after hurting him. In addition to talk such as this dominating the build up to the fight, both fighters have expressed their utter contempt for their rival. Then, this week, rumors began circulating that Groves is having difficulty making 168 pounds and that Froch had numerous difficulties in sparring. In other words, it is your run of the mill UK super fight!
The odds on the rematch are as close to even money as you can get (Bovada lists Froch at -150 and Groves at +120; Bet365 says Froch is 4-6 and Groves is 13-10; and SportBet has Froch at -155 and Groves at +135). Since no one knows what really would have happened had the fight not been stopped, it is extremely difficult to pick what happens here. However, with the emotion of the event and the competitive nature of both pugilists, the fight is likely to turn out to be an all-action, high impact fight. That plays into Froch’s hands. Groves should plan on boxing his way to a victory but if he gets drawn into a firefight, he will be in position for Froch to hurt him and also will not be in position to use his speed. Even if the emotion does not cause that, Froch’s experience should allow him to force Groves to fight his fight. In what should be an excellent fight in a terrific atmosphere… Froch is the pick.
The rumor mill and trash talk has been considerably lighter for the Vetyeka-Donaire bout. A large part of that has to do with the fight taking place in China. It also has to do with Vetyeka who, despite coming off of a career making title win against Indonesian legend Chris John, little is known about. Prior to handing John his first loss and making him retire, Vetyeka was only known for losing a bantamweight title shot to Hozumi Hasegawa in Japan. Most of his fights have occurred in South Africa although he has had one each in the US, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and Australia. Vetyeka’s resume, other than John, only has one other notable name and that is Daud Yordan whom he stopped in the 12th round in April of last year. His other defeat is a troubling one to a 14-9-2 fighter in June 2012 by split-decision. It goes without saying that Vetyeka is hard to get a handle on.
Donaire, on the other hand, is very familiar to fight fans as he has had numerous bouts on premium cable television. Those with short memories will not put much weight on his 13 year undefeated run where he won titles at 112, 115 (interim), 118 (unified) and 122 (unified) pounds. Rather, they will focus on his 2013 when he basically sleepwalked to a loss to Guillermo Rigondeaux and then had to score a come-from-behind knock-out to beat Vic Darchinyan in a rematch of a fight he won rather easily six years earlier. Donaire’s issues are now thought to be multiple: his success was based on his outstanding athleticism, fast hands and powerful punching rather than technical boxing skills and that lack of fundamentals is now being exploited as his athleticism and speed lessens in his 30s; his lack of focus due to family feuds and reunions and the birth of his child last year; and his refusal to go to Oxnard, California to train full-time with his head trainer Robert Garcia. All of these issues are still present and, in fact, Donaire was trained for this fight by his father in their native Philippines.
The oddsmakers do not seem to care. Bovada lists Donaire as a -400 favorite, Bet365 lists Vetyeka as a 3-1 underdog and Sportbet lists Donaire at -390. Many experts will probably be tabbing Vetyeka for the upset based on Donaire’s recent performances. However, it says here that Donaire knows that another flat performance and his career will be in serious trouble. Additionally, Vetyeka’s recent good run of wins over Yordan and John are likely a mirage. Yordan is overrated based on a good round and a half against Robert Guerrero a few years back and John was at the end of a 51 fight career spent at the same weight. Donaire is the pick.
The Macau undercard features two other featherweight title bouts to gamble on. Those fights will air on www.toprank.com at about 6:00 am EST. Jamaican “regular” WBA titleholder Nicholas Walters (23-0) will defend against Darchinyan (39-6). This is a fascinating matchup in that Walters has not really faced any notable opponents while Darchinyan has seemingly faced most of the top names in the lower weight classes. That said, Walters is a confident undefeated titlist who is much larger and enjoys a 10 year age advantage. Another issue confronting Darchinyan is that he has never shown himself to be a top-level fighter at 118 pounds and above. Walters is the favorite (Bet365 lists him at 1-3 and Darchinyan at 9-4) and is the pick. The other featherweight title bout features IBF titlist Evgeny “The Russian Mexican” Gradovich (18-0) against Alexander Miskirtchian (24-2-1), a Russian living in Belgium. All you need to know about Miskirtchian is that he has fought all of his bouts in Belgium and France (not exactly hotbeds of boxing) against very nondescript opposition and he does not appear to have much power. Gradovich is a pressure fighting machine who has gotten better since winning the title via upset decision over Billy Dib in March 2013. He is also used to fighting in Macau (his past two defenses have been there) and although his knockout percentage is only 50%, his style simply wears fighters down while Gradovich gets stronger as the bout goes on. The Garcia-trained “Mexican Russian” is a big favorite for a reason (Bovada says -1200, Bet365 says 1-12, SportBet lists him at -1050)… Gradovich is the pick.
The undercard of the Wembley Stadium card will not be televised but contains a few notable fights with odds on them. 2012 Olympic heavyweight Gold Medalist Anthony Joshua (5-0) is a humongous (Bovada says -10,000) favorite over someone named Matt Legg (7-2). Take the easy money here… Joshua is the pick. Jamie McDonnell (23-2-1) is a big (Bovada says -700) favorite over Tabitmdaeng Na Rachawat (52-2) in a fight for the vacant WBA 122 pound title. McDonnell is fighting at home and has not lost for six years. The Thai fighter has never fought outside of his native country and his opponents are not notable in anyway. Stay with the chalk here… McDonnell is the pick. The co-featured fight features a title eliminator where Degale (18-1) will face Andre Ward-stablemate Brandon Gonzalez (18-0-1) for the right to face the Froch-Groves 2 winner. Again, stay with the home team (especially where the UK fighter is an Olympic medalist)… Degale is the pick.
You want more European fight picks you say. Coming right up. Also on Saturday, from Germany, Felix Sturm (39-3) makes the first defense of his fourth middleweight title reign in a rematch against Sam Soliman (43-11 ) of Australia. In their February 2013 fight, Soliman won a close unanimous decision even though he was dropped in the second round. Then the decision was changed to a no contest because Soliman tested positive for a banned substance. Both fighters have seemingly been around forever: it was 10 years ago that Sturm lost his first middleweight title in a controversial decision to Oscar De La Hoya and it was nine years ago that Soliman lost a decision to Winky Wright. However, Sturm seems the better preserved even though his skills and athleticism have declined. Sturm also has had two fights since the “loss” to Soliman including a second round knockout over Darren Barker while Soliman has been on the shelf for 15 months. Sturm is fighting at home again and is a sizable favorite (Bovada says -450)… Sturm is the pick.
One more pick and this is for all of you who are annoyed that this column is sticking with all chalk. On Friday night from Moscow, Russia, Alexander Povetkin (26-1) faces Manuel Charr (26-1) in a fight between heavyweights who are known for losses to the Klitschko brothers. Povetkin has probably beaten better opposition but Charr looked more lively in his loss (on cuts) to Vitali Klitschko then Povetkin did in his 4 knockdown decision loss to Wladimir Klitschko. The oddmakers favor Povetkin’s skills and better experience (Bovada lists Povetkin at -600 and Charr at +400) but sometimes you go with a feeling… Charr is the pick.
Nine picks. Go make some money!
Author’s Record for the Year: 24-11 (3 for 3 last week and 5 for my last 5. Is that good or bad heading into a nine pick week?)
Author’s Record for 2013: 70-24-6
