Likelihood of winning San Juan Del Sur (least to most)
Typically I rank the remaining Survivors based on how much I like them, but this week I have decided to rank them based on the likelihood they will win the game. Since Wes has been eliminated, he has no chance of winning, and therefore, I will not be ranking him. However, he moved way up in my favorite castaway ranking this week simply by casually asking Jeff Probst if he remembers being naked on Two and a Half Men. In twenty-nine seasons it was the most behind the scenes footage we have ever seen of “casual Jeff Probst”, and I am now dying to see more of Jeff and the castaways side bar conversations during endurance immunity challenges. If the editors did not include this glorious footage this week, we also would have never known Wes won the Louisiana nugget eating challenge, and that would have been a travesty. Good on you, Wesley.
8. Alec
“If Jesus can do it, I can do it” professes Alec, just moments before he steps down because his feet hurt too much.
At this point, Jesus himself has a better chance of winning this game than Alec does. After this week’s vote, he has completely alienated himself from everyone left in the game besides Reed and Keith. The look of utter confusion on Alec’s face at every tribal council is an indication that this kid doesn’t have a clue about what is happening. The ONLY way he will survive next week’s double episode is if Jon, Jaclyn, Natalie, Baylor, and Missy know how clueless he is, and see Reed and Keith as a bigger threat (which they should). Right now, Alec’s odds are set at 1:100,000,000. Sooooooo, I suppose I am saying there is a chance.
7. Reed
The greatest immunity necklace presentation of all time?
Reed has earned a tremendous amount of respect from me the past two weeks. The guy knows he is screwed, and refuses to accept his fate as 2nd, 3rd, 4th…. jury member. He has turned out to be even more strategic than Josh, and a monster in the challenges. And just look at how pointed his toes are! I am no gymnastics critic, but I am pretty sure that is just about as perfect of a split as one can do.
As far as winning this game is concerned; if he somehow makes it to the final three, he will likely win. Reed, however, will need to pirouette and chasse’ (sha-SAY) his way to immunity challenge victory for the remainder of the season, or he will be ball-changing all the way to losers’ lodge after the first tribal council in which he is not immune from the vote.
6. Baylor
Dear God, please let the jury get confused at the final tribal council and think they are voting one of us off rather than voting for a winner.
Baylor was my pick to win from week one, and while I am still holding out hope that she will win, I am beginning to fear that there may not be a chance. I can not think of a scenario in which she can win. If Alec goes on an immunity streak, and it is a final two, and he takes her to the finals, she may have a slight chance at winning. Otherwise, she will likely be third place, and get one less vote than her mother, who will probably get second place.
5. Missy
Somebody has spotted a handsome camera man!!!!!!!!!!!!
There is no doubt about it. I would gamble my condo on the fact that Missy will make it to the final three, and likely with her daughter. And likely, neither will receive a vote.
Despite the fact that Missy has played a FLAWLESS game, I do not think she will have garnered enough respect from the jury to win their vote. IF there is a final two rather than a final three this year, and IF she is in the final two with her daughter, she will win. But that is about the only way I see Missy taking home the million dollars. Hopefully she can find a nice husband at the wrap party because she has been a single mother of two and three-time divorcee for way too long. You know what they say, the fourth time’s the charm.
4. Jaclyn
This is like, the easiest game ever!
While Jaclyn has been in the driver’s seat for many tribal councils this season, her chance of winning is slim. If she is in the finals, she will likely be there with Jon. If she is in the finals with Jon, she will not receive one vote. Should the tribe be able to blindside Jon in the coming weeks, and Jaclyn gets taken to the finals, there is a small possibility that she could manage to squeeze out enough votes to win the game (that is only if Baylor, Missy, and Jon are on the jury.) It is going to be a very inclined up hill battle for Jaclyn to win this game, so she should really have all her eggs in Jon’s basket at this point. And no, that is not a dig at her inability to have the sexiest children alive.
3. Keith
Ohhhhhhhhhhh, I get it. Maybe I shouldn’t have told Reed and Alec, and Wesley to “stick to the plan” in front of the rest of the tribe. Roger that.
While the possibility of Keith being voted off next week is huge, the alliance of five will only be able to get rid of two of the three guys next week. One of them will make the final six. If that is Keith, he has been shockingly good at the individual immunity challenges the past few weeks, he could easily win final six immunity and find himself sitting in the final five. If he gets to the final five, he stands a great chance at joining one of the couples and making the final three. If he is in the final three, he will win.
Those are a lot of “IF’s”, especially since he used his hidden idol, but Keith can not be counted out until he is spitting out his torch.
2. Jon
I AM NOT SURE WHY EVERYONE THINKS I ATE TOO MUCH CANDYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is very strange placing Jon at number two, because he has been #1 all season, but this is a special Thanksgiving list of who will likely win, not my favorites. Jon will be back to number one next week. Trust.
Jon has made some enemies on the jury in Josh and Jeremy. I don’t think Wes or Keith have much love for Jon either. And Reed will still be bitter about Jon voting Josh off, and likely voting Reed off too. That is the entire jury (and potentially next two jury members).
On the plus side:
* If Jon makes it to the final six, he can likely dominate the final immunity challenges, unless, of course, it involves standing on a one inch piece of wood and Probst offers Jon a Snickers Bar and Gummy Bears. If, however, Jon fails to win immunity after the final six, he will be voted off and the girls will dominate the end game.
* Jon has made big moves, and the jury should recognize that. If he is in the finals with anyone in his alliance (with the exception of Natalie) he will win. Hands down. He will easily beat Jaclyn, Missy, or Baylor, but getting there may be the difficult part for Jon. Regardless, I am very thankful that he is still in the game, and the possibility for him winning is still very much alive. He is certainly making his father proud, and that is worth way more than a million dollars.
1. Natalie
Finally, something that Natalie is not good at: spitting. Natalie sucks at spitting.
As far as I am concerned, this game is Natalie’s to lose. If I was a betting man, which I am, I would bet a lot of money on Natalie winning Survivor: San Juan Del Sur. She has played a perfect game, and would be well deserving of the grand prize. I will even go one step further: I am predicting at some point in the future Natalie will be brought back for an All-Stars edition, and she will win that too. Who knew that Nadiya was the reason the twinnies sucked so much at “The Amazing Race”? Natalie should have ditched the dead weight a long time ago.
This is how I see the rest of the season panning out:
8th place – Reed (unless, of course he wins immunity again)
7th place – Alec
6th place – a shocking Keith immunity win, and Jon gets the boot :(
5th place – Keith
4th place – Jaclyn
Final three – Baylor, Missy, Natalie
Jaclyn votes for Baylor to win.
Jon and Keith vote for Missy to win.
Everyone else votes for Natalie to win.
One Anderson twinnie is the first one voted out. The other wins. And Jeff Probst mentions that 8 times at the finale.
