Title: That Bootleg Guy
Teaser: American League East Preview: Yankees, Red Sox or…Yankees?
It seems I touched a nerve with readers in and around the Chicago area. If you missed the first part of my Major League Baseball preview here at 411 Black, you can find out why the populace of The Windy City hates me more than Leon Durham in 1984…Lee Smith in 1984…hell, pretty much more than any Black player on the 1984 Cubs team.
One thing I feared with this series is that covering two divisions per segment would just be too damn long and, sure enough, it was. I got more than a few emails from people who told me that they’d prefer the division-by-division approach spread out over the week, so that’s how we’ll handle the rest of this series.
Today, it’s the American League East that’s under the microscope. Primarily because, as you read this, the division’s New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays have already played the first game of the 2004 season.
Quick aside: What benefit does sending two teams across the International Date Line serve? The Japanese are already rabid about the game, so it’s not like MLB is going to win any new fans. As it is, Bud Selig is taking two home games away from the Devil Rays, who always draw a huge gate for their games at Tropicana versus the Yanks…with a crowd that’s usually 80% Yankee boosters.
American League East
2004 Predicted Order of Finish
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1. New York Yankees – Now that the seemingly annual payroll pissing between the Evil Empire and their nearly-as-deep-pocketed arch enemies has ended, the division can finally be settled on the field. The Yanks, to their credit, exploited the two-faced manipulations of the game’s best player in a deal that immediately makes them the team to beat, once again. It’s a tenuous honor, though. The Yanks still have some risks heading into 2004.
Alex Rodriguez comes over from his self-inflicted misery in Texas, where he’ll be expected to drive this aging offense, while navigating the pressures of New York. It’ll be interesting to see how the move away from a pronounced hitter’s park in Texas affects his numbers. Over the last three years, A-Rod was ungodly at home (.333/.416/.666) and merely ass-kickingly productive on the road (.278/.375/.564).
OF Gary Sheffield is another New York newcomer who has been one of the game’s best right-handed hitters for years. His thumb injury bears watching this spring, however. He’s managed to avoid an extended stay on the DL in the past few years, but Sheffield’s thumb, along with his proclivity to crowd the plate and get hit by pitches could catch up with him. OF Kenny Lofton (.296 BA, 30 SB) and SS Derek Jeter (.393 OBP) will helm the top of the order. (Torre’s threat to hit Lofton ninth probably won’t last more than a week or two.) Both players turned around a few seasons of decline with very good 2003 campaigns. Look for some slight regression from Jeter and a little more drop-off from Lofton.
1B Jason Giambi (.939 OPS) returns with a noticeably slimmer build. Those “four pounds” he dropped should help as he’ll be expected to recover from offseason surgery on his patellar tendon. He’ll be playing the field, as Bernie Williams is slated to take over in the DH spot. While Bernie has already been handed “legend” status amongst some shortsighted fans, his lone remaining offensive attribute his ability to take walks. His power has eroded to the point where Joe Torre should consider pinch-hitting for him late in games.
Speaking of Torre, he’s got a revamped starting rotation to start the season. Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40 ERA) slides into the “ace” role and might be the most consistent pitcher in the game today. Kevin Brown (14-9, 2.39 ERA) comes over from a pitcher’s paradise in Dodger Stadium. That change and the shakier defense behind him could contribute to a less effective ’04. He’s a huge injury risk, but if Torre resists the urge to extend him beyond six or seven innings per start, he could contribute close to 200 quality innings. Javier Vazquez (9.40 K/9) is finally free from Frank Robinson’s abuse of his arm and could have a breakout year.
Jose Contreras and Jon Lieber are question marks heading into the season. Contreras was effective in about 70 innings, while Lieber is returning from Tommy John surgery and is now dealing with an injured groin muscle. He threw well in some minor league starts late last year. Neither has to be more than a .500 pitcher if everyone else carries their weight, but the Yanks don’t have much depth here if either falters.
The pen, as usual, is a strength with Mariano Rivera’s 40+ saves a near certainty and Flash Gordon, Paul Quantrill and Felix Heredia handing the middle innings.
2. Boston Red Sox – While the Red Sox have managed to romanticize and market their romantic futility, there’s a growing sentiment that this should be the team America loves to hate. They spend $125 million on payroll, but complain the Yankees are out of control. They’re a veteran team, but acted bush league during last year’s ALDS and ALCS. Then there’s Ben Affleck. This could be the last hurrah for a pair of Boston stars, but is a frenetic off-season enough for a ticket the ’04 playoffs?
SP Curt Schilling (2.95 ERA) takes his self-serving act to the American League. He had some freak injuries last year in Arizona, so 200+ innings and 20 wins aren’t out of the question in ’04. Maybe he’ll write another “letter to the fans” and tell us all about it. Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22 ERA) is still the game’s best starter when he’s right, which is often. Still, he hasn’t thrown 200 innings in three years and during that time, he’s thrown 322 innings in the first half with just 180 in the second half.
Derek Lowe apologists attributed his 2003 drop off to bad luck and off-the-field medical concerns. Yes, he won 17 games, but that wasn’t hard to do with the 7.33 average runs of support he received from the Boston offense. But, his huge dip in strikeout rate since becoming a starter and his 4.47 ERA last year are more indicative of a pitcher who’s already peaked and is now in decline.
Tim Wakefield will remain effective as long as he can control the knuckler and Byung-Hyun Kim is much better than the one ALDS appearance that got him banished off the playoff roster. Keith Foulke (43 SV) is the new closer for a pen that wasn’t close to great last year, but instantly improves with his addition.
Boston had the best offense in all of baseball last year and there’s been a great deal of discussion in the media over how many players had flukish “career” years and how many were really that good. OF Manny Ramirez (1.014 OPS) actually saw a slight dip in his OBP and SLG from 2002, but he’ll be just as durable and deadly as he always is. SS Nomar Garciaparra (.524 SLG) has put up nearly identical lines for two straight years and now he’s got the additional motivation of his pending free agency payday staring him in the face. He’s suffering through an Achilles problem at the moment and may miss the regular season opener.
DH David Ortiz had the ½ season of his life last year, hitting 21 homers after the All-Star Break. He’s one who won’t match last year’s output, but the regression shouldn’t be that substantial. OF Trot Nixon will likely share Ortiz’s fate, especially with a back injury that will keep him out until May.
The dropoffs for 3B Bill Mueller and C Jason Varitek will be more substantial. Mueller’s 2003 season (.326/.398/.540) was so far off from his career numbers that there’s no place to go but down. Varitek’s slide won’t be as severe, but a 32-year-old catcher who’s caught close to 300 regular season and post-season games over the past two years is at risk for some offensive dip.
3. Toronto Blue Jays – And now…the rest of the story. There was a lot of slow singin’ and flower bringin’ amongst Jays fans who were quick to mourn the passing of their team once GM J.P. Ricciardi began retooling the roster after the 2001 season. The result is a team that’s younger and better than those that preceded it, but one that’s still stuck in the wrong division to contend.
1B Carlos Delgado (.426 OBP, .593 SLG) is the heart of the offense and he’s in the final year of a very bloated contract. Like the Angels’ Garrett Anderson, he’s gotten better each year as he enters his early 30s and with last year’s improvement in hitting left-handers, he could duplicate or even improve upon his 2003 line. Unheralded CF Vernon Wells (.317-33-117) has similar mega-star talent and hasn’t turned 25 yet.
DH Josh Phelps might be poised for a breakout campaign of his own. In his second big league season, the pitchers adjusted to him and the result was a 40 point drop in BA and 90 point drop in SLG. His OBP remained around .360 both years, which is terrific for a young player and, with his power, indicative of greater things ahead. OF Frank Catalanatto should continue to mash righties at a regular pace (.501 SLG last year) near the top of the order. While all reports indicate that 3B Eric Hinske is healed from the hand ailments that plagued him throughout 2003. Look for a season more in line with his rookie year of ’02. He’s still a brutal defender, though.
The Jays’ starting rotation seems as deep and talented as it was during their early ’90s run of success. Roy Halladay (22-7, 3.25 ERA) turned a corner in ’03 and, with this offense, could return to 20 wins. Miguel Batista has quietly had three solid seasons as a swingman for Arizona. He’s got a defined role now and, if he can withstand 200 innings, is capable of 14-16 wins.
Enigmatic Ted Lilly comes over from Oakland and seemed to pull it together in the second half of last year (7-3, 3.45 ERA). He’s not too durable, so he’ll have to be carefully monitored. In fact, he’s missed most of March with a wrist injury. Pat Hentgen, who needs to improve on his 11.00+ ERA this spring and Josh Towers round out the staff.
4. Baltimore Orioles – After years of being weighted down with long term ill-advised contracts, the O’s are finally getting some much needed financial relief. This enabled them to go buck-wild on the free agent market and bring in a trifecta of sluggers along with a starting pitcher they dealt away last July. And it’s pitching (or lack thereof) that will keep them entrenched within the non-NY/BOS wasteland.
SS Miguel Tejada is the most heralded of the newcomers. His numbers over the last four seasons clearly indicate that his 2002 MVP campaign was the exception and not the rule. He’ll be overpaid for most of the life of his contract, but is capable of another couple of seasons at last year’s level of production (.278-27-106).
The same can’t be said about 1B Rafael Palmeiro (.508 SLG) and C Javy Lopez. Palmeiro threw a fit when Texas tried to reduce his playing time, but he’s clearly in denial. His numbers have been sliding for five straight years. Lopez was in a similar freefall before his lights-out 2003 (1.065 OPS). He won’t be in the same area code of those stats next year or any year of his new deal.
OF Jay Gibbons should provide another season of so-so plate discipline and moderate pop. He drove in 100 last year with an offense that wasn’t this good. 2B Jerry Hairston and 3B Melvin Mora return to the lineup after missing chunks of ’03 with injuries. While the O’s can’t be expecting much out of Hairston, Mora was an All-Star last year for the first time (at 32) before getting hurt. He’ll be expected to be a regular third baseman for the first time in 10 years and isn’t as good as his ’03 would indicate (.418 OBP, 503 SLG).
SP Sidney Ponson returns from a half-season in San Francisco. The Giants gave up a ton for a pitcher with a career ERA over 4.50 and the O’s seemed all-too-eager to re-insert his unique brand of mediocrity back to the top of their rotation. Rodrigo Lopez (5.82 ERA) and Omar Daal (4-11, 6.34 ERA) were bad enough to pitch for the Brewers last year. Both probably won’t be that bad in ’04, but they also won’t be as good as the Orioles need them to be. And, it appears that Daal will miss the first month with a sore shoulder. Jorge Julio returns as closer, but another line like last year’s (0-7, 8 blown saves) and he won’t hold the job for long.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays – The dinosaur approach from 1999-2001 didn’t work. The current commitment to youth is a work in process. So, what’s to love about a team that lost 99 games last year, but still can boast that they didn’t lose 100+ as they did in the two years prior? They do have the framework in place for a good, young offense…someday. Unfortunately, their player development program hasn’t yet produced as many blue-chip talents on the mound.
Victor Zambrano (originally signed by the Yankees in 1993) is now 26-20 in his three-year tour of Devil Ray duty. He led the league in walks (106), though and that number nearly matched his strikeouts for the season (132). He has his moments out there, but the team would be well-served to hope for a strong first half out of him that could then entice a contender to overpay for him in a trade. A serviceable pitcher on a perennial loser is a trade commodity, not a cornerstone.
The rest of the rotation is the same cavalcade of castoffs that expansion teams usually cycle through in their first year or two…or seven. Jeremi Gonzalez (6-11) made an inspirational return to the mound (his first Major League appearance since 1998) after an assortment of injuries and surgeries kept him sidelined. He pitched better than his record, including 16 quality starts. With his volatile shoulder history, he can’t be counted on long-term. If a little more offensive support can turn those losses and no-decisions into wins, the Rays could (and should) look into moving him for someone younger and healthier.
Mark Hendrickson and Paul Abbott are the requisite warm bodies at the back end of the staff, while Doug Waechter, 23, might be an arm worth watching (and keeping). Opponents hit just .225 off of him last year.
Offensively, the lineup is built upon the anonymous shoulders of Aubrey Huff (.311-34-107) who has gotten better in each of his three seasons with the Rays. Give him 600 at bats this year and he’ll hit 40 homers. Highly touted outfielders Rocco Baldelli (.289 BA, 78 RBI) and Carl Crawford (55 SB) had their respective moments in 2003, but both could’ve used that time fine-tuning their craft at Triple-A Durham. Baldelli has more offensive upside, if we’re talking pure power, but both need to improve their plate discipline.
At least they have an upside, which can’t be said about 1B Tino Martinez or SS Rey Sanchez. While you’d certainly pencil both in as your “defensive replacements” in a Strat-O-Matic game, neither has the bat to be more than a liability at this point. OF Jose Cruz could be one choice for an offensive sleeper on this roster, though. He’s not gonna go all Barry Bonds on the league, but he has slugged over .700 at Tropicana Field in about 80 career at-bats.
Tomorrow: American League West Preview
Aaron Cameron’s “Bootleg” column appears every Friday in the Music Zone. His all-time favorite Yankee is Kevin Maas, while his all-time favorite Red Sock is Sam Horn.
