After Part One of our baseball preview, I was slammed pretty hard by Cubs and White Sox fans who felt I was way too harsh on their respective teams. Shortly after Part Two was posted, it was the Red Sox Nation’s turn to lay into me. I guess there’s some sort of honor in being the second most hated “Aaron” in their tiny little state.
I’ve also been crossed off the Christmas Card list of the Tino Martinez Fan Club. Their boy went 3-for-3 against the Yanks yesterday, including his 300th home run, and they were lining up around the block to tell me how Tino was back, baby. Of course, no one could be bothered to mention that blustery Opening Day in 1994 when Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes went 4-for-4 with three home runs off of Doc Gooden. His final season tally: .234 BA 8 HR 19 RBI.
Since that was the year of the strike, you’re forgiven if you’ve purged all the memories from that fractured campaign. One of the most bizarre storylines that failed to play out was the interesting saga of the American League West that year.
It was the first season for baseball’s realignment into three divisions in each league. The reigning division champs, the Chicago White Sox moved to the AL Central and the David Cone-led Kansas City Royals joined them. They left behind a four-team Western Division that struggled all year with the balanced schedule. When the players walked, none of the four teams had a winning record. Texas was the division leader…and 10 games under .500!
Ah, but that was 10 years ago. Over the last few seasons, the AL West has been the most competitive in all of baseball. And while the talent level of this division is a notch below from where it was a few seasons ago, it should still be a dogfight for crown.
American League West
2004 Predicted Order of Finish
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Anaheim Angels
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
American League West
1. Oakland Athletics – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before…”the little team that could” enters the off-season after another first round playoff disappointment. The club loses a few marquee free agents, replaces them with a some warm ‘n cheap bodies, and then runs roughshod over their division when the games are actually played. Why change what works? Despite their losses in the offseason, the club’s strength remains its pitching.
Don’t be fooled…Miguel Tejada is a talented, though occasionally petulant, player. But, he’ll be the Orioles problem in 2010, when he’s 33 (or 36, depending on who you believe) and making $12 million. Bobby Crosby (.308 BA, 22 HR at AAA) won’t match Tejada’s numbers right away, but he’s having a fine spring and there’s no reason to think he can’t hit 10-12 home runs from eighth place in the lineup.
Former Mariners set-up man Arthur Rhodes comes over to fill the void left by closer Keith Foulke’s money run to Boston. Critics are quick to point out his 27 blown saves in 44 career chances, but those numbers were almost entirely accrued in the types of pressure situations that only middle relievers face while bailing out a starter. Given the two or three run cushions that most of today’s stoppers are afforded, Rhodes should surpass 30 saves, easily.
There are two reasons why this A’s team shouldn’t suffer too much drop off from last year’s division winners. First, the Athletics fielded the worst everyday outfield in the League last year and they’ve replaced the execrable Terrence Long and Chris Singleton with a healthy Mark Kotsay (.266-7-38) and Bobby Kielty (career .367 OBP). Those two, alone, won’t make up for the loss of Tejada and catcher Ramon Hernandez, but this was a middle-of-the-road offense last year and remains so for 2004.
Second, and more importantly, the A’s still boast the division’s best rotation. Tim Hudson (16-7, 2.70 ERA) should’ve won 20 games last year, if not for some untimely blown saves. While Barry Zito (.219 opp. BA) and a healthy Mark Mulder (15-9, 3.13 ERA) round out the big three. Former Marlin Mark Redman and phenom Rich Harden are penciled into the four and five spots, but they’ve been shaky at times this spring, so they both bear watching.
And don’t buy into all the “sky is falling” talk over the possible end to 2B Mark Ellis’ season. He’s a fine glove man, but he’s next to nothing with the bat, posting a .313 OBP with not enough power to justify his 94 strikeouts. Longtime prospect Esteban German will get the first look at second, with a trade for another 2B likely.
2. Anaheim Angels – Wait a minute…how the hell can a team go out and sign the best hitter on the open market, along with not one, but two big name starting pitchers and somehow not win the division? Actually, the explanation makes a lot of sense…as long as you’re not a resident of Orange County.
The Halos shocked everyone in the baseball world with the inking of Vlad Guerrero (.330/.426/.586) to a five-year pact. Unfazed by his potentially chronic back ailments, the Angels will be rewarded with a 30 HR/100+ RBI season. His health will be a constant concern, though, so expect Manager Mike Scioscia to rest Vlad more often than he was in Montreal.
OF Garrett Anderson (.315-29-116) and underrated 2B Adam Kennedy will provide additional offense and, in fact, look for huge seasons out of both. Anderson is a free agent after this season and his BA, OBP and SLG have increased in each of the last three years. He’s looking for upwards of $14 million/year in his next deal, while the Angels are offering about $4 million less. As for Kennedy, he spent some of 2003 in the manager’s doghouse, but he’s a solid stick with surprising pop against right-handed pitching.
So, why won’t the Angels unseat Oakland in 2004? Let’s continue with the offense. 1B Darin Erstad (.642 OPS) is one of the most overrated hitters in the game. His career year in 2000 was just that…a fluke, not likely to ever be repeated. Plus, his move from Gold Glove centerfielder to first base could be problematic for some of the extreme flyball pitchers on the Angels staff. 3B Troy Glaus will attempt to play with a partially torn rotator cuff, an injury that cost him half of last season. While OF Jose Guillen (1.013 OPS) won’t match the three-month fantasy run he had in Cincinnati last year.
And how about that pitching staff? SP Bartolo Colon (15-13, 3.87 ERA) comes over from Chicago and, despite his problems this spring, he’ll strengthen the staff. However, SP Kelvim Escobar has a career ERA of 4.58 and has never pitched more than 180 innings in a season. There are questions amongst the Angels holdovers, too. John Lackey (16 losses), Ramon Ortiz (5.20 ERA) and Jarrod Washburn (15 losses) took huge steps backwards last year and left nothing for their excellent bullpen to work with.
And even with the facial injury to Brendan Donnelly, the Anaheim bullpen is a tremendous asset. Led by Troy Percival (33 saves) and Francisco Rodriguez (.172 opp. BA)
3. Seattle Mariners
I’m old enough to remember when the image of the lowly Mariners was a half-lit, quarter-filled Kingdome and the alternating Alvin Davis/Mike Schooler Donruss Diamond King cards. For almost 10 years, the M’s have been in the thick of the division race, but that glorious run of top tier finishes will end this season.
Offensively, the Mariners seemed unable to put any runs on the board in the second half of 2003. Instead of upgrading, Seattle went out and signed middling and middle-aged (by baseball standards) OF Raul Ibanez (.294-18-90) to a multi-year deal. He’s moving from the best hitter’s park in the league (Kansas City) to the toughest pitcher’s park and won’t come close to earning his salary.
SS Rich Aurilia’s (.325 OBP, .410 SLG) last good year was in 2001, yet he was inexplicably signed to replace Carlos Guillen, who is three years younger, yet almost the exact same player. Scott Spezio as anyone’s everyday third baseman should be a cause for concern, while Seattle still must account for their offensive ciphers in C Dan Wilson (.611 OPS) and OF Randy Winn.
Even the everyday poster boys for Seattle have questions that need answering. OF Ichiro Suzuki has significantly faded down the stretch in each of the last three seasons (.351/.398/.470 in the first half, .299/.342/.402 in second half over last three years). 1B John Olerud and DH Edgar Martinez also suffered second-half meltdowns and, at their ages (34 & 40, respectively) are always at risk for injury, marked decline or both.
The M’s aren’t without their strengths, though. 2B Bret Boone (.902 OPS) is the best in the AL and the starting staff is occasionally spectacular, though wildly inconsistent. The pinpoint control of 20-game winner Jaime Moyer and raw talent of Joel Piniero (16 wins) is paired up with the enigmatic arms of Freddy Garcia (12-14) and Ryan Franklin (11-13, 3.57 ERA). Eddie Guardardo and Rafael Soriano anchor a fine bullpen. There just isn’t enough overall strength to lift Seattle to the top.
4. Texas Rangers – A team that could’ve been defined by the play of the best shortstop in 80 years, instead opted to plead poverty and part with the game’s greatest player. Make no mistake, the Rangers plight over the last few years had nothing to do with Alex Rodriguez. Texas fans should be blaming the front office and their horrible personnel moves, which retarded the growth of this team for the last five years.
Let’s not forget that the Rangers handed out five years and $65 million to SP Chan Ho Park after bringing A-Rod into the fold. He’s given them 10 wins and 175 total innings in two seasons since. There’s no reason to think that the phantom injuries or 500-foot home runs allowed will stop any time soon.
And if Park’s Keystone Korean Kops routine isn’t enough comedic entertainment for you, the rest of the rotation ERAs read like the dinner prices at your local Chili’s. SP Joaquin Benoit (5.49 ERA) and Colby Lewis (7.30 ERA) are coming back for more, so fans in the left field bleachers had better be ready. Kenny Rogers returns for his third tour of duty and should put up his usual 13-win season. Some good news…the bullpen is chock full of quantity, if nothing else. RP Francisco Cordero (15 saves) was serviceable as the closer last year and Jeff Nelson (68 K’s in 55.1 innings) brings his plus-slider over to Arlington.
There is room for hope, though. The Rangers have two of the best young hitters in the game, both of whom have yet to reach their ceiling. 3B Hank Blalock still struggles against lefties, but absolutely moi-dered righties, on his way to a .300/.350/.522 season. 1B Mark Teixeria no longer has to deal with the bitter me-first attitude of Rafael Palmeiro. He should have no trouble improving on the 26 HRs he hit last year. We haven’t even mentioned Alfonso Soriano (.525 SLG) who could thrive (assuming he’s not dealt) in the extreme hitter’s atmosphere of The Ballpark at Arlington.
Elsewhere, DH Brad Fullmer was a fine pick-up from Anaheim in the offseason and could hit .300 in a platoon role. And if OF Brian Jordan has anything left in the tank, it’d be a nice bonus. Yet, without anything at the major league or minor league level resembling young pitching talent, the Rangers will continue to look up at the three teams ahead of them.
Tomorrow: National League West Preview
Aaron Cameron’s “Bootleg” column appears every Friday in the Music Zone. His greatest AL West baseball memory is the 1990 game where then-Angels reliever Mike Fetters threw a handful of half-eaten chicken wings at him and a friend.
