Welcome to yet another exciting season of SURVIVOR! Hard to believe we’re at nine seasons already. I’m constantly amazed at how strong, how adaptable, and how independent the show remains after all this time.
In a world where the television set is clogged with reality shows, it’s good to see that the grandfather of them all still holds its own and is still around. It is very arguable that SURVIVOR is indeed the best reality show on television, for the simple fact that it had proven it can withstand the test of time. That in itself is notable.
But we’ll have to save that debate for another time. Right now, I am feeling privileged to be able to share with you my take on the latest group of castaways who will become the latest American household names, and try to outwit, outplay, and outlast each other for a million dollar jackpot.
The setting this time around is Vanuatu, and island chain in the South Pacific located near the Ring of Fire. Vanuatu is saturated with history of beliefs in spirits and cannibalism, among other things.
In my opinion, the perfect place to hold a SURVIVOR competition.
With the premiere just a week away, it’s time for the preliminary cast analysis. Once again, Mark Burnett has split the tribes along gender lines. He has also, like in last season’s ALL-STAR edition, chosen 18 contestants, rather than the usual 16.
The male tribe is called LOPEVI, and the female tribe is called YASUR. This week, I’ll be giving you my analysis of the male tribe. Who on the tribe looks good? Who has a shot? Who has no chance in hell?
Well, in about a week we’ll be able to get firmer impressions. For the time being, however, I’m afraid you’re stuck with my sometimes flawed analysis.
I’ll be honest. My predictions are not always, shall we say, CORRECT. I’m the guy who picked Sandra and Lill as the first two people to go in last yea’s SURVIVOR: PEARL ISLANDS. No joke. I was really kicking myself over that one when they made the Final Two.
Oops.
So, don’t take my predictions as gospel. Take from them what you will. Maybe you just want to read my column every week because you want a good laugh. Fine by me. I just hope you don’t leave my hanging halfway through because everyone I predict to win is being sent home.
But who knows? I haven’t had good luck with previous seasons. Maybe this time I’m going to get lucky.
Here we go, the 9 men of Vanuatu, in alphabetical order:
BRADY FINTA: Okay. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that this is my preseason pick to win it all. After all the discussion we just had about my bad luck when it comes to this stuff, this will be my chance for season 9 to either look like a complete idiot once again, or finally become vindicated. My rationale behind this pick is that I believe a male will win this time. We haven’t had a man win since Thailand. Three female winners in a row. Simple statistics dictates that a male win soon. So why not now? So, keeping that in mind, I took a good, hard look at all nine men and thought about who I thought would be the Sole Survivor. When I saw this guy, my “winner radar” went off”¦.STRONG. The FBI agent thing really jumped out at me.
So here is my preseason pick to win. Please try to be generous if he’s kicked out first.
BROOK GERAGTHY: There’s always a few people in each bunch that I never get a good read off of. This guy is one of them. He’s a “self-proclaimed Survivor fanatic.” Oh, dear Lord, is this another Rob Cesternino? Boy, I hope so. He looks like he’ll be a strong competitor, and if he truly is a fanatic, then he must know the game well. I think he’ll do well for himself in Vanuatu.
CHAD CRITTENDEN: Everyone meet the first amputee on SURVIVOR. If Amazon’s Christy taught us anything, it is never to underestimate anyone due to physical handicap. I believe that Chad is going to be a very determined person and a very determined competitor, and someone the others should take seriously. This could be a help, or a hindrance. Determination is good, but overkill can be deadly. We shall see very shortly how he does.
CHRIS DAUGHERTY: This is another guy who I’m not getting a strong read from, one way or the other. He’s in highway construction, so that means he’s got to be strong. But I’m not sure he looks like the charismatic type. He looks like a strong, masculine type. I’m not so sure that’s a great quality to have in a tribe of all men. We’ll see.
JOHN KENNEY: Now this guy does look charismatic. He does not look like the strong, masculine type I saw in Chris. I’m not getting a very good read off of him. He claims that he has a good ability to “read people.” I just don’t know, though. I’m feeling kind of uneasy about his chances. For some reason, I just don’t see him fitting into this group very well.
JOHN PALYOK: Why on Earth does Mark Burnett constantly insist on utilizing people with the same name in the same season? To name a couple, we had two Kims in Africa and two Ryans in Pearl Islands. Now we have two Johns. This one looks highly charismatic. Just like the first John, I don’t see this one fitting in too well. He kind of reminds me of Amazon’s Ryan. Very charming around the ladies and completely confident in their abilities. Unfortunately, each one ended up in a tribe of all men. We’ll see if I’m wrong or not, but I don’t think he has much of a shot with the group he’s in.
LEA MASTERS: Doomed. I’m sorry. It’s nothing against him as a person. But he’s a drill sergeant. Anyone who is an experienced SURVIVOR viewer will tell you that, time and time again, we see that the game brings out the core of who you truly are. It also brings out your bad side. I just don’t think that Lea will be able to drop that drill sergeant persona, no matter how hard he tries, especially in a tribe of all men. I think he’s the most likely Lopevi to start barking out orders. That will also result in an early boot.
RORY FREEMAN: Unlike the last three people, I do get a good vibe from Rory. Typically, black males do well. Both Sean (Marquesas) and Ted (Thailand) made it to the Final Five in their seasons. Gervase did quite well for himself in season 1. Pearl Island’s Osten and Africa’s Clarence did not do well, but on the average, black males do well. Not only that, but I get the feeling that he’ll work well with other people. I think he’ll blend in with his surroundings and be a pleasant person to be around. I think he’ll last for a while.
TRAVIS SAMPSON: Finally, we come to Travis. I see a somewhat early boot with him. Reading his biography concerned me. If you don’t mind, I’m going to quote from it: “Travis believes he will bring his leadership, aggressiveness and inventiveness to SURVIVOR:VANUATU, and his primary reason for participating is to live a life that isn’t so ordinary. He believes that he could be the Sole Survivor because he has “learned how to adapt to different people and different situations. I can schmooze anybody, become their best friend then take their butt”¦and vote them off.”” Uh-oh. I strongly believe he’s a little too overconfident in his abilities in order to mesh with an all-male tribe. The “aggressiveness” particularly concerns me because in a tribe full of alpha males, there’s bound to be a lot of competition. He’ll have to adapt fast, or risk being voted off.
OVERALL ANALYSIS OF THE LOPEVI TRIBE: Next week, we’ll be looking at the female tribe. But, to give you a little preview, I see a lot of stronger personalities over there. I think this is a great group of people, and most of these guys look incredibly strong. However, I believe this tribe will suffer from too many people trying to be the alpha male. They’d better watch out, or they’ll be crushed by the women again and again.
I see Brady and Rory as my favorites from this tribe. The two Johns and Lea are doomed. Everyone else, in my book, is fair game. I’ll need more observance from the show to make stronger opinions on these people. But it’s always fun to look back at this after the show is over.
I’ll “see” you next week with a preview of the female tribe!
