Double Tribal, Double Trouble.
That’s what the name of last week’s episode was, and I think it definitely lived up to the name. A lot happened in one hour.
I always love double eliminations. Two Tribal Councils in one night”¦it was like living in a dream!
So, who did well this week, from both tribes? Well, I think it’s obvious to me that the MVP award for this week goes to John K.
What a turnaround! Two pitiful performances in the first two episodes to some great moves in the third episode!
My jaw was literally on the ground when he divided the girls based on who voted for Dolly. Then it started digging into the ground when they actually complied with his request!
Then, of course, he won Immunity in the first place. Well done for him. But I also want to talk briefly about the decision he had to make.
I loved the concept of the winner going to the other tribe and deciding which one to give it to. He handled it perfectly, as we know and as I mentioned, by finding out exactly where the alliances in the tribe laid.
Then, instead of disrupting the politics of the tribe and causing waves that could hurt him in a merge situation, he gives it to the one person who didn’t have to worry about leaving at all”¦..Ami. Brilliant. A lot of people wondered why he didn’t try to screw their tribe up and send them spiraling.
In all honesty, though, don’t you think more damage would be done by letting them fight among themselves? There’s a rift in the Yasur tribe that is practically split down the middle. Now, however, the older women have the advantage. But last week, it was complete 50/50.
Why screw that up? Why make the decision easy? Personally, I think JK made exactly the right move by leaving it alone to let them fight it out among themselves. Plus, like I said, if he makes it to the merge, he can rest assured that he didn’t make any enemies among the women by screwing up any of their plans.
Who else did well this week? Well, I thought Chris did a good job at making sure Lea remained within the alliance. Chris isn’t very good at challenges, particularly balance, but so far he’s shown that he can play the game. He’s in good shape right now. He’s in the “Fat Five” alliance, and has two prime targets to pick off in the event they go to Tribal Council: Brady and John K.
While we’re on here, let’s jump to the politics of the Lopevi tribe at this point in time. Alliance lines are very clearly defined. You have the main core alliance of Chris, Lea, Rory, Chad, and Travis. Then, on the outside looking in, you have the younger, stronger members of the tribe, Brady and John K.
Do I predict the Fat Five alliance will dismantle? Nope. The only chance Brady and John K. really have of staying in the game is winning Immunity.
However, that does not mean they should just roll over and die, and I don’t think that will happen, either. What they need to do is recognize the fact that they are two people who can form a solid voting block. All they need is two people to break off from the Fat Five, and they need to start with Lea.
They need to work very hard on exploiting the only visible crack we’ve seen in the Fat Five”¦the tension between Lea and Rory. If they can convince Lea to vote Rory, and get at least one other person, then they’re set. They may have a shot, especially since voting out Rory would still give the remaining four a majority against Brady and John K.
However, I believe it would take a minor miracle to actually make that happen. So, that gives us the question of who would go first, Brady or John? Well, I can see it going either way. John did have quite a good run last week winning the individual Immunity. That could make him an easy target for the Fat Five.
I don’t think, though, that they can discount the first couple episodes. John screwed up the RC in episode 2. And you’ve seen that the reverse strategy of the Fat Five is to vote out the strong of their tribe, and Brady climbed the pole, was the only successful person in episode 2’s RC”¦.you get the general idea.
According to the criteria, I think Brady will go before John. I am losing my optimism that Brady will win, and think there’s a high likelihood he could go this week.
However, I have a feeling it will be the women voting this week. While there are two outsiders in Lopevi, Yasur is divided even more. There’s infighting and tension. They lost the challenge last week, and their TC only caused a deeper rift among the ladies.
So, I think they will lose the IC this week and vote another person out of Vanuatu. The question is, who will that be?
Well, once again, the alliances are clearly defined. You have the older women, who now have a majority. That alliance consists of Scout, Twila, Ami, and Leann.
Then you have the younger girls, Eliza and Julie. Then, in the middle, you have Lisa. I’m looking forward to an explanation as to her vote switch last week. Does she still consider herself part of the younger alliance, or is she going with the majority, or is she part of the older alliance now?
Hopefully we’ll get the answers we’re looking for this week.
All I know is that I think it’s pretty obvious who would get booted. You’ve got the older women with the majority, and I think Lisa is safe because of how she helped them last week with her vote.
So, that leaves two choices”¦..Eliza and Julie.
Sorry, Eliza. I know she’s the first person from my hometown to get on SURVIVOR, but she is just not cut out for this game. She talks far too much, even driving the temporary resident crazy, she switches her votes on a dime and then expects the alliance she betrayed to welcome her back with open arms”¦.not good. If Yasur votes again this week, and I think they will, then Eliza merits a departure from Vanuatu.
I’m going to conclude this week’s column with the new tradition I’ve established of attempting to pick apart the teasers left for us at the CBS official website. Here we go:
“Tempers flare at both camps after the double Tribal Council. Alliances seem clearly drawn and several Survivors have trouble holding back their frustration.”
—Okay, this one is fairly self-explanatory. People left on the wrong side of the vote are ticked off and the tribes fight. I love it when SURVIVOR gets dramatic. Should be fun to watch.
“The Tribe that wins Reward is surprised by a prize that sends a visitor to their camp for 24 hours.”
—This is probably what they did in Thailand, sending the guides out to teach the winning tribe how to live off the land in their camps.
“Homesickness plagues Bubba, who is comforted by a fellow tribe member and is advised to avoid being perceived as weak.”
— Another opening John and Brady could try and exploit, possibly. And how much do you want to bet it’s Chris doing the urging? He seems to be the glue holding the stray ones (like Lea last week) in the alliance.
“One Survivor plays a puppet master of sorts in an attempt to pit one tribemate against another.”
— This could be anybody, so it might be vain to even try and attempt this one. However, I’m going to say it’s Brady trying to save his hide.
OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK FOUR
PERSON VOTED OFF: Eliza
SOLE SURVIVOR PICK: Ami
“See” you next week!