The guys are screwed.
For the first time, we are going to be seeing an all-female final. True, there are still two guys left.
However, CBS is trying very hard through the previews this week to convince us that the woman alliance is crumbling and that Scout is working super-hard to take out Ami, and all that. I wouldn’t buy it for a second. History has shown that CBS tries a little too hard to fool us.
So, one guy will go home this week. The other will go home next week. Chad will go home before Chris; I’m pretty confident in that choice. There has been no indication of anything else, and as I’ve been saying all along, the sympathy factor plays a huge role. No one is going to want to let Chad get anywhere near the Final Two if they can help it, because the fact that he lost one foot would play a huge role in determining some votes.
Now, of course, as Shii-Ann proved last season, Immunity is always a factor in changing fates. However, this time, I doubt that will even be much of a factor. After their pitiful performance last week, I doubt anyone would expect either guy to win Immunity this week.
So Chad goes home this week.
Now, I’m going to run down each of the remaining players in the game and how I think they stack up right now in the Alinta tribe and what I feel their chances are of winning the million.
AMI– Still at the top of my chart. I’m not going to fall for all the “We’ve got to get rid of her” hype. Twila sticking with the women once again this week was a pretty solid indication for me of how strong the women’s alliance really is: and Ami is at the helm. Right now, she’s at the top of my list.
LEANN– #2 on my list. If Ami does not win, I think she will. She’s flying under the radar, she hasn’t made any enemies that we know of at this time, and it’s one advantage she could have over Ami if the two of them are the ones facing the Jury; heck, having no enemies could be a huge factor against anyone left! By the way, the chicken wings vs. chicken bones incident this week was absolutely hilarious.
SCOUT– Another strong contender right now for the million dollars. I’ve said it again and again as if I were a broken record: Scout has shocked me with how well she has done. She is the true dark horse of this season. The only problem she has is the rift with Eliza. And as of now, that’s it.
TWILA– Like Scout, she has surprised me at how well she has done. The big mistake she has made that I think could turn off the male Jury members is openly stabbing them in the back twice (especially Sarge). She’s a strong contender, but she’s somewhat abrasive and she has made it known she doesn’t mesh very well with the women, so if she’s not careful, she could find that she’s one of the first women gone.
JULIE– She made a good move at making the alliance on the volcano with Leann. Now she has a tight ally and she’s within the female alliance. She’s good for now, but like Twila, she may have turned off guy Jurors (in this case, namely Chad)and they will form three members of the Jury; in order to win in that case, she’d have to gain all four of the women Jurors’ votes.
ELIZA– Most likely the first woman gone. There’s a rift between her and Scout, and I think Scout has more influence over the other women than Eliza. She needs to break away and scheme with the men and try to form a new alliance if she wants to stay in the game. Will it happen? Probably not. If she does make an alliance, will it go anywhere? No.
CHRIS– A good player with a huge deck of cards stacked against him without a strong means of winning Immunity. He’s screwed, but he should be safe for at least one more vote.
CHAD– He’s gone this week. Enough said there.
And that does it for this week. Once we get down to just women, we’ll have some more interesting scenarios to think about and more possibilities. But, for the next two weeks, it’s just a waiting game.
“See” you next week!
