Section 1- Important results & Title matches
New Japan: A trio of notable shows. On Wednesday they had a series of matches with New Japan vs Chono’s stable as the theme. New Japan won overall, but Chono’s team took two of the biggest. Chono debuted his FTS finisher (STF/rear naked choke, first done by NOAH’s Shiga) to down Nishimura. Nakanishi took advantage of Tenzan’s war with Kawada a few days earlier to get an upset victory. Nagata debuted a variant of his Nagata Lock III to best gaijin powerhouse Scott Norton.
On Saturday, New Japan ran the Osaka Prefectural Gym. Chono downed Nagata with the FTS after debuting a ‘sliding’ Yakuza kick. Tenzan vs Kojima went to a hotly-contested 30 minute draw (with demands for a rematch). And in the main event, another long one, Tanahashi and Nakamura bested Sasaki and Suzuki to win the IWGP tag titles. Sunday had two big title matches. Minoru Tanaka retained the junior title over Wataru Inoue, while Sasaki dropped the IWGP title to Tenzan. Kojima was ringside on Sunday to help add hype to the inevitable rematch with Tenzan. Tenzan won with a moonsault, just like last year against Takayama. Tenzan’s three big matches in the stretch (Kawada, Kojima, Sasaki) are getting high praise from the fans.
Section 2- Other news & Upcoming matches
New Japan: 1/4 has big changes. Chono vs Choshu was expanded to Tenzan vs Chono vs Choshu, non-title. This could be a ‘dogfight’, pioneered by Osaka Pro in which three men face off in a series of singles matches until one of them wins twice in a row; specific stipulation to be determined. And in something teased for the Osaka Dome show, Tanahashi vs Nakamura for the U-30 title has been signed in the wake of their tag title win. The junior title is on the line when Tanaka defends again against Tiger Mask 4. Their first match, after TM4’s Best of the Super Juniors ’04 win, had a pre-match Jado/Gedo attack to hamper it. TM4 won the title last year in a second challenge to Kanemoto, so I’d say he’s the favorite here. Speaking of Kanemoto, he’ll face Liger, which has happened at 4 previous 1/4 shows. Last but not least, Kojima will tangle with Nishimura.
NOAH: They officially announced Misawa & Rikio vs Tenryu & Koshinaka for the 1/8 Budokan show. Rikio is an ex-sumo like Tenryu, and he’s getting a push as shown by his pin on Kobashi a few weeks back. Tenryu and Koshinaka tagged in the ’90s, winning the IWGP tag titles in ’98.
Other: Recently departed New Japan booker Uei has resurfaced, and announced plans for a new ‘big shows only’ promotion called BIG MOUTH, centered around freelancers like Sasaki, Tenryu and Takayama. He looks to have access to a large pool of MMA and wrestling talent, much like HUSTLE, though this will be a serious product. This could be the rumored ‘Inoki Office’ promotion.
Section 3- Predictions
All Japan:
-Kojima looks like a mortal lock to go over Kawada, but it might be a few months yet. Kawada will certainly retain over Sasaki, and I expect ’04 Champions Carnival winner Mutoh to rear his head before the summer, potentially in February. Kawada vs Kojima would happen in either February or after the ’05 Champions Carnival.
-Who even knows if Nagata and KaShin will defend the titles again. Kea/Jamal won the tag league but I can’t see a top heel team taking on heel outsiders for the belts, so I have a feeling the titles will be vacated.
-Hayashi is booking the junior division so the title is his indefinitely. I can see him putting over Taka Michinoku, as Taka has been rather patient in essentially a main-event jobber role for some time now.
New Japan:
-If there’s any justice, Tenzan will have a long reign, preferably into the fall. Nakamura and Tanahashi are my favorites to win the G-1 Climax, and whoever wins that would be in like to take down Tenzan. Between now and then we have Chono and Nakanishi lined up to challenge Tenzan, while I’d expect Nagata to take a stab at it, and one or two of the ‘new 3 Muskateers’.
-Nakamura/Tanahashi are sitting pretty with no really strong challengers in sight. The Jurassic Powers II: Lost World (okay I made that last part up) team of Nakanishi/Norton seem stalled to an extent, but having them make a run would be a productive use of Norton, who remains quite effective and cooperative in his role. Other than that… I’m at a loss. Looks like a long reign in store for ’em.
-Minoru Tanaka is likely to drop the strap to Tiger Mask 4. If not him, I’d say American Dragon has an excellent chance in a rematch, and Naruse would also have a good shot if he has a shot.
-I look for Kanemoto and TM4 to knock off Jado & Gedo for the junior tag titles. There’s nobody else on the horizon.
NOAH:
-Kobashi will retain against Suzuki. After that he’ll defend against Misawa or Rikio, potentially at the end of the first ’05 tour but more likely at the end of the second (3/5 in the Budokan). Misawa would be used to pack the Budokan, but would not be a serious threat. On the other hand, I’d have Rikio as the favorite against Kobashi, given that Rikio is young, competent, has already had a competitive title challenge against Kobashi, and got the pin in the tag tournament. If not Rikio, there’s an outside chance for his partner Takeshi Morishima, who’s currently out with an injury. It would take until at least late April before Kobashi runs through three more defenses, at which point Morishima might be healthy, but Morishima doesn’t seem ‘groomed’ enough to lead the company.
-Rikio/Marufuji is a very real possibility for a top challenger after winning the tag tournament, and given Rikio’s push. If they get a shot I think they’ll win over the Untouchables (Misawa/Ogawa). After that, maybe a teaming of Koshinaka and Saito or Tenryu and Koshinaka… there’s just not much out there.
-Kanemaru will retain over Takaiwa, then he should be faced with Marufuji or KENTA, either of whom seem ‘overdue’ for a reign given their success as junior tag champs. SUWA or Ricky Marvin could sneak in a challenge, but neither would have much of a chance.
-The theoretical ‘best possible’ challengers to KENTA/Marufuji have always been Kanemaru & Sugiura. Kanemaru/Hashi and Sugiura/KaShin both failed in title shots, but combined I’d expect them to take it. Of course there’s the Juvi/Aguila title defense this Friday in Mexico… but no way the titles change hands there.
Zero-One:
-Who cares about the AWA title tournament, honestly? When in doubt go with the booker; Ohtani to win.
-Takaiwa’s junior title will be meaningless after he loses to Kanemaru, unless it’s a draw. The thought of them going 60 minutes, quite frankly, disturbs me; it won’t happen. I’m not sure they really have anyone to put over Takaiwa now that Hoshikawa was accidentally retired.
Next Week: Strategy & Selling, two words that can make the difference between a good match and a great one.
