Riding the Pine

Archive

After a weeks hiatus, we are back.

First, though, I wanted to put this from an article on Baseball Prospectus:

That distant sound you heard at the end of Jason Giambi’s Press Conference of Monumental Apologetic Ambiguity was the applause of every politician in the United States of America. They were paying tribute to a speech so bereft of actual meaning that they, as one, were both jealous and awed. All of them would love to introduce that sort of deft avoidance into their own deliveries.

That is the best way to sum up his “apology.”

This week we are going to look at the first mock draft at RotoChamps. I will look at the first few rounds and evaluate the picks.

First off, a few things about this. These 10 teams were chosen by 10 forum members (meaning these guys activity participate in fantasy baseball). They know there shit. Secondly, this was a worm draft; the person with the first overall pick will have the last pick in the second round, then the first pick in the 3rd round. Lastly, this is based of a 5×5 roto league (with the standard stats, for more information see this article ).

Round One
Team A – Albert Pujols
Team B – Carlos Beltran
Team C – Alex Rodriguez
Team D – Vladimir Guerrero
Team E – Miguel Tejada
Team F – Manny Ramirez
Team G – Alfonso Soriano
Team H – Barry Bonds
Team I – Bobby Abreau
Team J – Todd Helton

– This is a standard first round. If any pitchers were to be taken, look for Johan Santana, Mark Prior, Randy Johnson, or Curt Schilling to go.

Round Two
Team J – Johan Santana
Team I – David Ortiz
Team H – Jim Thome
Team G – Gary Sheffield
Team F – Roy Halladay
Team E – Scott Rolen
Team D – Mark Prior
Team C – Randy Johnson
Team B – Magglio Ordonez
Team A – Adrian Beltre

– Magglio Ordonez is way too much of a risk to be taken this early. Don’t get me wrong, he is a great player, but with last season’s injury, his stock should drop.
– Roy Halladay is an interesting pick. He is a good pitcher and should have a good year. Many people won’t have him on their radars this soon. He could go a round or 2 later, but this could pay off at this time. Personally, I would rather have one of the two that are taken to finish out the round.
– Adrian Beltre is another that is questionable. He is coming of a good season, but he was playing for a contract. That usually give a player a little more incentive. Seattle’s park will lower his numbers, but only slightly. He will be the 3rd best third baseman in the AL.

Round Three
Team A – Jason Schmidt
Team B – Carlos Delgado
Team C – ICHIRO
Team D – Eric Gagne
Team E – Mariano Rivera
Team F – Mark Teixeira
Team G – Eric Chavez
Team H – Carl Crawford
Team I – Fransisco Rodriguez
Team J – Brad Lidge

– A run for the best 4 closers happens. Gagne and Rivera will get a ton of saves, while K-Rod and Lidge will get a decent amount of saves and pile on strike outs.
– Crawford may have been a round early, but he will lead the AL in steals again.

Round Four
Team J – Curt Schilling
Team I – Keith Foulke
Team H – Miguel Cabrera
Team G – Hank Blalock
Team F – John Smoltz
Team E – Pedro Martinez
Team D – Sammy Sosa
Team C – Jason Isringhausen
Team B – Joe Nathan
Team A – Jake Peavy

– Notice, 3 more closers are taken. Be sure to notice trends like this. More than half the teams have taken a closer. Remember that closers, shortstops, third basemen, and catchers are the weakest positions. If you have the opportunity to take one of these positions, take it.
– Remember the name Jake Peavy. He will be the ace on a good San Diego staff. He is youn and constantly improving. If he is available in this round or the next, take him.
– Two big name pitchers are taken here that I would avoid. First, Smoltz is going back to the rotation after 3 years of closing. I don’t think his battered body can stay in the rotation for the whole year. Second, Pedro Martinez is not the pitcher we once knew. He isn’t the ace he used to be. I would wait another round or 2 before taking him.

Round Five
Team A – Oliver Perez
Team B – Edgar Renteria
Team C – Derek Jeter
Team D – Nomar Garciaparra
Team E – Ben Sheets
Team F – Mark Mulder
Team G – Tim Hudson
Team H – Adam Dunn
Team I – Michael Young
Team J – Jeff Kent

– Remember Oliver Perez (see Jake Peavy above, and insert Pittsburgh for San Diego). I would actually take Perez over Peavy.
– The run for shortstops starts here. Jeter and Renteria are both overrated, but they are solid options after Nomar and Tejada.
– One trend I have noticed is when one of the two “former big three” are taken, the other is soon to follow. Here we see Hudson taken right after Mulder. My first draft this year, I got Mulder the pick after Hudson was taken. Years of being teammates has these 2 linked in the minds of fantasy baseball players.
– Jeff Kent should go later than this. His offense is on the decline and he is moving to a pithcers park.

A word from some other sports:
NASCAR
European Football, or soccer as we know it
Hockey
And of course, more baseball:
Hall of Fame
Pine Tar

That’s it this week. Remember to send me questions, or post them in the forums. Also, send or post potential team names for my leagues. I will be joining them soon, so I need a few options.