The Eyes–Sunken Ship

Ulong has made history.

They started off with nine people. They are now down to three. It’s unheard of. A tribe of just three people?

Now, there was an argument made that this is not the first time there has been a tribe of three: back in Marquesas, Maraamu was down to Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal just before the merge.

However, there are a few key things that make Ulong stand out as the worst tribe in Survivor history:

1) They have never won a single Immunity Challenge. Maraamu did win one after the switch. Ulong has not had any, their only victories have been in the Reward Challenges.
2) Unlike in Marquesas, there was never a tribal switch here. This tribe has just been rapidly deflating. Every week, they have lost one more member.
3) Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal were only a tribe for a day before the merge. Now, there are no guarantees at this point that there will or will not be a merger next week.

My prediction? The tribes are going to stay exactly the way they are for one more week before they do the traditional merger at 10.

Because, if you think about it, a tribe truly does not fail to function completely until they are down to just two members. A tribe can vote at Tribal Council if they have only three people, and this situation is a very likely prospect next week.

Ulong clearly has not received the momentum they need to topple Koror. Koror is too strong, Ulong is too weak. I find it highly improbable that Ulong will gain enough momentum in one week to have one victory.

I fully expect that next week, the tribes will remain the same, and Ulong will lose yet again, setting a record that hopefully will never be broken: losing every single tribal Immunity Challenge in the game.

Next to being voted off, that’s the low of the lows. But the reality is that Ulong simply does not have what it takes to win Immunity now. If even a boat ride with Pringles can’t get some energy and morale back, then I don’t know what will.

Now, I do believe in miracles. And I hate to sound nasty, but I’m just being truthful: it would take a miracle for Ulong to win Immunity at this point.

Maybe a miracle in the form of Stephanie?

Stephanie has proven herself to be quite capable at winning challenges on her own. She carried Ulong to victory in the RC this week. But will Stephanie alone be enough?

No. There are only three people left, so that’s less people to worry about screwing things up. But now Koror gets to sit out 5 people, and strategy will play a large role in that, guaranteed. Stephanie is tough, but she can’t stand up to Koror all by herself. Bobby Jon is strong, and so is Ibrehem, but they still fail to come together as a team.

Honestly, that’s about all I can say for now. In terms of predictions, I really can’t see Koror losing Immunity next week unless they throw it, which I doubt. They’re strong and united. Ulong is anything but.

So, my official prediction for next week is that Ulong will lose once again and Stephanie and Bobby Jon will hold to their alliance and make IBREHEM the next casualty of the war raging on in Palau.

I apologize for the briefness of the column this week, but if you look at the schedule, Survivor is back on Thursday night again, so my next column is due to come out before then. So, what I am going to do next week is run down each player left individually and give them a letter grade based on how I feel they are playing right now.I don’t want to do that now because that will leave me without something to write about next week, so I’m going to wrap it up here. So that will be done next week before the next episode of Palau.

But, that’s all for right now.

I’ll “see” you next week!