As I sit down to write this, I am faced once again with the same question I have been faced with since square one.
Why has Ulong been doing so badly?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past week or so, you know that on last week’s episode, the Ulong tribe set a new record.
They are down to two. TWO. Bobby Jon and Stephenie are the only two Ulongs left. 2 little Ulongs to battle 8 mighty Korors.
Well, before this tribe becomes extinct completely, let’s take a look and answer that question. Why HAS Ulong become so horribly decimated?
Looking back on the season that has transpired so far, we can see that the trouble started early.
BIG MISTAKE #1: They should not have voted Jolanda off so early. I don’t care if she was a little abrasive. You don’t get rid of your strength so soon when she is clearly stronger than even some of the Koror men. Now, to be fair, we don’t see this until hindsight because of how physical the challenges have been this time, but voting off Jolanda was not the brightest move in the world.
BIG TWIST OF FATE #1: Getting rid of Jeff, easily one of their strongest men, could be viewed as a dumb move, but his ankle hurt. If his ankle hadn’t gotten hurt, then he would have stayed longer and helped them out even a little bit more. So there’s an example of fate rearing it’s ugly head.
BIG MISTAKE #2: Why on earth did they vote Angie off? The Reward Challenges that they did win were in large part due to her (except the last one they won, which gives all the credit to Steph). I was flabbergasted, and still am, that someone strong and useful like Angie was voted off before a stick like James.
Now, there’s one mistake they made that, in my opinion, is the biggest one of all; this is not a very specific time period mistake, like voting off Jolanda and Angie. This is a mistake they have had since day one, and have been continuing since then. This is something that has never been corrected.
They, unlike Koror, never established any centralized power.
Ulong never made a hierarchy.
In my Government class recently, our teacher had us do an island activity, where the entire class basically had to pretend that we had been stranded on a deserted island and had to create our own government. We didn’t have to follow the Constitution or the Bill of Rights or anything. We were on our own.
So, we proceeded with a very logical method. We figured that if we split work evenly and formed committees to be in charge of different tasks like fire, water, shelter, etc, then we would be okay. The idea of having one leader was wildly unpopular with the class as a whole.
We ran into the same problem the Founding Fathers did when they created the Constitution, which was the whole point of the assignment. I know you don’t read my column and expect a history lesson, but since it has high relevance to what we are discussing, then you will have to bear with me for a minute.
If you recall your American history, then you remember that we had a government before the Constitution. We had what was called the Articles of Confederation. We had that system for about ten years before it fell apart and the Founding Fathers gave us the government we have today.
What went wrong? The Founding Fathers were deathly afraid of centralized power. Makes sense, right? They had just come off the Revolution, in which they had rebelled against the British Crown. Why? They felt it had become too oppressive and was restricting their rights.
So they made a government with no centralized power and divided the power among the states. Exactly like we in my class assignment delegated the power to equal committees. In each system, it was realized that you need SOME form of centralized power. Without a leader, everything falls apart. Just make sure to check the power of the leader somehow, and you’ll be fine.
So, that’s nice and all. But how on earth does that relate to Survivor? How does what you read in a history textbook relate to a television show?
It actually has almost two parallel situations.
Now, before you change the channel, think about it, because it makes sense. It’s all a question of power. How much should be given and why?
Now, on Survivor, why don’t people want to lead or be led? For the same reasons the Articles of Confederation was the basis of our first government. The people don’t want to be led by a leader who will become corrupted by their power: “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
And, in Survivor, becoming the leader makes you an obvious target. It was clear from the very beginning that Ulong was not going to have a leader. That’s fine if you don’t want one person to gain all the power, but if you want to function as a team unit, you need someone to step up and take charge.
Koror had that happen with Tom. Ulong did not have that happen at all, in any form, with anybody.
Is that the only thing that has caused them to do so poorly this entire game? Of course not, there are a lot of factors, and I discussed a few above. Nonetheless, failing to come up with some vestige of centralized power really hurt them in the long run.
Okay, so now what? What is going to happen next? Well, it is quite clear that a tribe of two can’t function in a Tribal Council. You can get away with three, but two is impossible, because it would be an automatic tie breaker.
So, one of two things will happen this week: the tribes will switch into two new tribes of five each, or they will merge.
I’m betting on a merge. They’ve got ten, and there has been no switch up to this point, so I’m putting my money on a merge. Why else wasn’t Ulong “saved” before now with a twist? They have most likely been planning on a merge at 10 all along.
Now, the previews do indicate them competing in a challenge as tribes because we see Bobby Jon cheering Stephenie on as if they are still a tribe together. The previews ALSO show Ian strategizing with Tom about bringing Stephenie into their Final Four.
So, based on that, here is what I think will happen: just like in All-Stars and Vanuatu, they will have a tribal Reward Challenge. Then, later, they will merge into one tribe and compete in an individual Immunity Challenge.
So, my predictions for the boot this week are going to be based on my assumption that we will witness a merge this week. The obvious thing to think now is that Bobby Jon and Stephenie are doomed. 8-2 is not a good statistic to have in a game about numbers.
A few weeks ago, I said that Koror would have to go to TC eventually and lose Immunity because of the natural cycle of the game and the frustration that mounts when you can’t get rid of somebody.
But then, as we all know, because of a twist, Koror went to a TC without actually having to lose a challenge, and simultaneously losing their momentum.
They were able to vote someone off and still maintain that challenge momentum, which was a huge gift. However, now, that same principle can be applied to the merge.
Think about it. In this entire game, they have voted one person off. They have attended one Tribal Council in the entire game. Despite that, we have still seen alliances form.
We have the kingpins of Tom and Ian. We have the foursome of Coby, Gregg, Janu, and Jenn. We have the twosome of Gregg and Jenn. We have Katie somewhere in partnership with Tom and Ian, and as far as we know, Caryn is kind of on her own, unless she still has a fairly strong bond with Coby.
So, even though they have only had to vote one time, their alliances are still scattered all over the place, and the lack of a vote is probably making them frustrated. There’s also a trust issue.
Coby might want to get rid of Tom and Ian faster, so to strengthen his own alliance, he may pull in one or both of the desperate Ulongs to help.
Caryn may feel isolated and try to make a power play.
Tom, Ian, and Katie may find out about the threat Coby’s alliance poses to them once they get down to just Korors and try to strengthen their side.
So, you see, paranoia is going to result in at least one Ulong being spared the vote. And, if I was a betting person, I’d put my money on Stephenie.
Bobby Jon is a nice guy and a hard worker, but I’ve been repeating it since day one: he is pretty naïve when it comes to how the game is played, although he is still a physical powerhouse.
Stephenie is more intense, and I think Koror will sense that. I think they will sense that, if they want to make some type of new play, Steph will be the one to go to. Why? Because Bobby Jon is more set on loyalty than Steph is.
We have seen that Steph is a savvy player who will pull any strings and make any moves she has to in order to stay alive. Bobby Jon may not be as easy to convince.
So, even though Steph would be the greater threat in the long run, Bobby Jon will likely be harder to work with for the short term, so he’ll get the boot before Steph.
If a power play does occur, I doubt that both Ulongs would be included. Maybe they would, but my gut is telling me that either Bobby Jon or Stephenie will be the first one voted out of the new tribe, just based on the grounds that people might be too nervous to make their move for at least one more week. Coby and his group can try and convince Tom they’re loyal before dropping the ax down the following week, for example.
So, based on what I said above, I think Steph is the one they will cut deals with, leaving Bobby Jon out in the cold.
BOOT PICK FOR EPISODE 8: Bobby Jon
“See” you next week!
