Riding the Pine

Archive

He has an enemy. Now he has a big one. He knows I can [bleep] him a lot of different ways. He better shut the [bleep] up and play for the Detroit Tigers.”
–Ozzie Guillen on Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez said Guillen was part of the reason he didn’t re-sign with the White Sox. (Chicago Tribune)

Guillen has been a godsend for the baseball media in Chicago. He will say anything that he is thinking. He makes the slow weeks like this more enjoyable. Most teams had at least 1 day off this week, so not as much happened.

First off, I’d like to thank Kyle for pointing out that Jaret Wright has 2 wins this season. (He did agree that he is overrated). He also chimed in about Carl Pavano:

His ERA is only 2.86. He doesn’t have tons of strikeouts, but he was never really a strikeout pitcher. Yeah, he only has 1 win, but Ben Sheets has 1 win, more losses, and a worse ERA. Not saying Sheets is a bad pitcher, obviously, just trying to use him as an example of a good pitcher who might not have the wins he should. It’s definitely possible Pavano just had a career year last year, and won’t do well this year, but the numbers at this point just don’t show that. His first start he only gave up 2 runs, it’s just that the bullpen gave up another one and ended up getting the game tied. His second start we’ll never really know what would have happened, he only got 1 earned run, but that was the game he got hit in the head and was taken out after only 2 innings of work.

His numbers are decent now, but I thought Pavano is overrated for his career numbers:
59-60 record, 4.18 ERA, 633:276 K to BB ratio. He is not a power pitcher (for a high strikeout total) and that doesn’t help fantasy owners as much in head to head leagues (ask owners of Greg Maddux and Brad Radke). He has never pitched in a high pressure situation before (Montreal and Florida) like New York. He is also at the point where pitchers start to decline (age 29-31). Most players have there peak at age 27 (CBS Sportsline has an interesting article on it). That is why I don’t care for him.

I don’t like the comparison of Sheets to Pavano either (I know it was to show similar/worse stats from a better pitcher). Sheets is in his fourth full season (with a mediocre team), and is 26 years old. Pavano, on the other hand, is in his eighth season (with 3 seasons with less than 20 starts before hand) and is 29. Sheets came into the big leagues as a known commodity while Pavano came out of nowhere. Also, look at RotoChamps projections (Sheets: 15 wins, 264 Ks, 2.76 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP; Pavano: 15 wins, 138 Ks, 3.62 ERA, and 1.26 WHIP). Both are generous projections, but, based off of the strikeout total, they show they are 2 different pitchers.

The Rumors
The Cubs are desperately searching for new infielders; they have been talking with the Diamondbacks about Alex CintronJohnny Damon has requested a 4 year, $48 million dollar extension from the Red Sox; currently, the Sox have no plans to accommodate that request…The Phillies have confirmed they had talked to the Cubs about a deal for Placido Polanco…San Francisco has said they aren’t looking for a closer right now, but they haven’t ruled out finding one down the road.

Manager Hot Seats: Tony Pena of the Royals has taken a lot of heat in Kansas City; the Royal’s GM gave him the dreaded vote of confidence (normally given when a manger is on his last days)…the Blue Jays gave manager John Gibbons a contract extension (through the 2007 season) even though they are off to a slow start.

The week that was:
The Good
Mark Prior – Prior is looking like Prior from 2 years ago, and not last year. Prior, after his stint on the DL, has 22 strikeouts in 19.0 innings. He has been very good in his starts, and should be active in all leagues.
Oliver Perez – Perez looked as if he has bounced back from his rough start. Monday, Perez pitched 7.2 shutout innings, allowing 4 hits (the first happened in the 6th) and 2 walks while striking out 9. The strikeouts have been there (27 total), but the command hasn’t. Apparently, Perez is mixing his pitches more. I would definitely have him active.
– Big Name Players – So some of the big name players have decided to show up. Alex Rodriguez hit 3 home runs (including a grand slam) and scored 10 RBIs on Tuesday night. He should be started at all times, even when he is cold. Albert Pujols also started to hit better. He hasn’t done horrible, but this week he has 6 hits in 13 at bats. He has also reached base safely in every game this season.
Phil Nevin headed into the weekend with a 12 game hitting streak; he is a solid player in large leagues…Nick Johnson’s hitting streak is up to 16 and has reached base in every game of the season; Johnson is solid for a back up player, when healthy…Cliff Floyd has a 14 game hitting streak (through Friday morning); the comment for Floyd is the same as Johnson, but Floyd could start every once in a while…Mark Grudzielanek hit for the cycle this week; he is only worth having in large leagues, and even then, as a back up.

The Bad
Neifi Perez – What deal did Perez make with the devil to play like he has? He has shown little power in his career (his career high for homer is 12, but that was in Colorado), but he has 3 already this season. He’s never hit over .300, but he is hitting .396. If you like the risk/reward pick-ups, go for him; just expect him to go back to normal sooner or later.
Dan Kolb – Kolb was lifted in the 9th on Tuesday after giving up 2 runs on 5 hits in 2/3rds of an inning. He was credited with a hold, but was pulled before he had the opportunity to get the last out and the save. I expected Kolb to crumble once he attempted saves in a high stress situation. Saving games in Milwaukee is a little different than saving games in Atlanta. Kolb was a waiver wire pick up for Milwaukee in 2002. He also strikes out very few batters (5.5 Ks/9 innings). Don’t be surprised if he loses the closer role.
– The Weather – Nothing can stop a rolling team like Mother Nature. Weather, the last 2 weeks, has slowed down everyone. Last week, snow in Detroit stopped a game, which was made up on Monday (a new week in most leagues). This week, the Marlins and Rockies only played 1 of 3 games. Teams that have players from these team lose out this week, but later in the season, the will have an extra game or 2 on the competition.
John Smoltz got his first win as a starter since June 3, 2001; he is a solid pitcher, but the Braves should move him back to the closer role before he breaks down…

The Ugly
Chad Fox – A few days after being officially name the Cubs closer, Fox left Monday’s game with an arm injury. He will be out for the season and possibly longer. Fox has had 2 Tommy John surgeries, so an elbow injury is the worst thing that can happen to him. Michael Wuertz and LaTroy Hawkins may get the save opportunies, but that is only until Joe Borowski returns from the DL (approx. 10 days).
Kevin Millwood – Here is another Indians pitcher who is pitching well, but getting zero run support. He fell to 0-3 this week after the Tribe lost 3-2 to the Tigers. Millwood pitched 7 and a 1/3 innings, surrendering 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 7. He is solid in Roto leagues and point/head to head leagues where losses don’t hurt you.
Jerome Williams, the Giants 5th starter, has been sent to Triple A to work on his control after a rough start…Gavin Floyd has also been sent to Triple A by the Phillies; they want to keep him starting rather than use him for long relief…Roger Clemens is pitching his best so far, but he joins Millwood and Jake Westbrook in the no run support category; he is still worth starting in all leagues.

Rookie Watch:
Gustavo Chacin is still on fire; he is worth owning in any league…Dallas McPherson is starting to get into the swing of things; unfortunately those swings are misses (10 strikeouts in 30 at bats) – I’d still pick him up.

Injury Watch:
Nomar Garciaparra is having surgery on his groin (not to re-attach the muscle, just to clear out for a clean heal) and believes he will be back this season; keep him stashed on your roster incase he does return or until he is officially done for the season…David Wells left his last start his last start with a strained foot; he has been placed on the DL and could be out for a month…Frank Thomas is said to be frustrated by his slow healing; there is still no time table…Jason Isringhausen is out with a strained his abdomen; he is listed as day to day…Magglio Ordonez (hernia) is officially out for 2-3 months according to the Tigers; like I said last week, Dmitry Young missed a full season with the same surgery…Eric Gagne has thrown of a bullpen mound for the first time this week; the Dodgers are saying he should be back in the next couple of weeks…Lance Berkman (knee) should be back next week…Wade Miller recently threw a good rehab start; he is expected to make one more before he goes back to the Sox…Armando Benitez is out 4 months after tearing his hamstring while covering first base this week…Mike Cameron has made his first rehab start; the Mets think he will be back next week…Curt Schilling is back on the DL with an ankle bruise; it’s on the same ankle, but the DL stint was just a precaution.

Upcoming 2 start pitchers: (DISCLAIMER: All of these should be checked on Sunday to make sure they are 2 start pitchers. Go to 2 start pitchers link on RotoChamps to check). ALSO NOTE BOSTON DOES NOT HAVE A STARTER SET FOR TUESDAY, CHECK TO SEE WHO THEY WILL USE ON SUNDAY.

Must Start
Pedro Martinez (Phi, @ Mil), Chris Carpenter (@ Cin, SD), Jason Schmidt (@ Ari, Was), Rich Harden (Tex, @ NyY), Mark Buehrle (KC, @ Tor), Carlos Zambrano (@ Mil, Phi), Andy Pettitte (Pit, @ Atl), Rodrigo Lopez (Tor, KC), Jon Lieber (@ NyM, @ ChC).

Don’t Start
John Halama (@ Det, Sea), Ezequiel Astacio (Pit, @ Atl), Tim Redding (Col, @ StL), Eric Milton (StL, LaD), Scott Erickson (Was, @ Cin), Victor Santos (ChC, NyM), Jake Westbrook (@ Min, @ Tex), Kip Wells (@ Hou, @ Ari), Scott Kazmir (NyY, Min).

Sleepers
Gustavo Chacin (@ Bal, ChW), Ryan Franklin (LaA, @ Bos), Jeff Francis (@ SD, @ Fla), Esteban Loaiza(@ LaD, @ SF), Josh Fogg (@ Hou, @ Ari), Adam Eaton (Col, @ StL), Jarrod Washburn (@ Sea, Det).

Other Possible 2 Starts:
Jeremy Bonderman (Bos, @ LaA), Mike Mussina (@ TB, Oak), Russ Ortiz (SF, Pit), Kenny Rogers (@ Oak, Cle), Al Lieter (@ Atl, Col), Mike Hampton (Fla, Hou), Brian Anderson (@ChW, KC), Joe Mays (Cle, @ TB), Mike Maroth (Bos, @ LaA), Brett Myers (@ NyM, @ ChC), Tom Glavine (Phi, @ Mil), Kevin Brown (@ TB, Oak), Doug Waechter (NyY, @ Min), Jason Marquis (@ Cin, SD)

League Leaders
Rank, Player, Team, AVG
1, Derek Lee, Cubs, .430
2, Clint Barmes, Rockies, .421
3, Carlos Guillen, Mariners, .403
4, Shea Hillenbrand, Blue Jays, .402
5, Neifi Perez, Cubs, .393

Rank, Player, Team, Home Runs
1, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 8
2, Brian Roberts, Orioles, 7
2, David Ortiz, Red Sox, 7
2, Manny Ramirez, Red Sox, 7
2, Derek Lee, Cubs, 7
2, Paul Konerko, White Sox, 7

Rank, Player, Team, RBIs
1, Derek Lee, Cubs, 27
2, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 26
3, Miguel Tejada, Orioles, 25
3, Manny Ramirez, Red Sox, 25
5, Brian Roberts, Orioles, 23

Rank, Player, Team, Runs
1, Jeff Kent, Dodgers, 23
2, Brian Roberts, Orioles, 19
2, Shea Hillenbrand, Blue Jays, 19
2, Derek Lee, Cubs, 19
2, Clint Barmes, Rockies, 19
2, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 19

Rank, Player, Team, SBs
1, Torii Hunter, Twins, 10
2, Scott Podsednik, White Sox, 9
2, Brian Roberts, Orioles, 9
4, Julio Lugo, Devil Rays, 8
4, Chone Figgins, Angels, 8

Rank, Player, Team, Wins
1, Jon Lieber, Phillies, 4
1, Jon Garland, White Sox, 4
1, Josh Beckett, Marlins, 4
1, Johan Santana, Twins, 4
1, Jamie Moyer, Mariners, 4
1, Dontrelle Willis, Marlins, 4
1, Chris Carpenter, Cardinals, 4
1, Gustavo Chacin, Blue Jays, 4
9, 14 others, 3

Rank, Player, Team, ERA
1, Roger Clemens, Astros, 0.32
2, Tim Hudson, Braves, 0.96
3, John Patterson, Nationals, 0.98
4, Jake Peavy, Padres, 1.30
5, Brett Myers, Phillies, 1.35

Rank, Player, Team, Saves
1, Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks, 10
2, Danny Graves, Reds, 8
2, Jose Mesa, Pirates, 8
2, Francisco Cordero, Rangers, 8
5, Eddie Guardado, Mariners, 7
5, Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals, 7

Rank, Player, Team, Ks
1, Pedro Martinez, Mets, 46
2, Johan Santana, Twins, 45
3, Josh Beckett, Marlins, 35
4, Randy Johnson, Yankees, 34
4, Brett Myers, Phillies, 34
4, Jake Peavy, Padres, 34

Rank, Player, Team, WHIP
1, Pedro Martinez, Mets, 0.67
2, Roger Clemens, Astros, 0.79
3, Dontrelle Willis, Marlins, 0.80
4, Jon Garland, White Sox, 0.87
5, Jake Peavy, Padres, 0.90

Links
RotoChamps can take care of all your fantasy needs.
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That’s it for this week. E-mail or post questions, trade scenarios, and comments. Thanks.