And, so it ends…
100 potential Hall of Famers…100 verdicts…and, judging from my inbox and IM convos over the past few months, 100 agreements, disagreements and debates.
If you missed any of the previous nine parts, you can find them below, with a few of the names that we’ve already covered. Find out why my opinion on Barry Bonds had one reader refer to me as “an apologist idiot”. See my thoughts on Pete Rose and judge for yourself if the reader who called me “ignorant and uninformed” has a point.
Of course, I got tons more positive and constructive comments than otherwise. I hope to share that with y’all in a few weeks, along with my responses. Plus, I’m going to be starting work on my next IP Sports feature and it’s guaranteed to piss you off.
Thanks again to all the readers who’ve stuck with the HOF 100…
Part I: Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio & Barry Bonds
Part II: Jose Canseco, Andre Dawson & Dwight Evans
Part III: Jason Giambi, Shoeless Joe Jackson & Rickey Henderson
Part IV: Ken Griffey, Jr., Tony Gwynn & Derek Jeter
Part V: Roger Maris, Don Mattingly & Mark McGwire
Part VI: Mike Piazza, Alex Rodriguez & Pete Rose
Part VII: Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield & Sammy Sosa
Part VIII: Bernie Williams, Kevin Brown & Roger Clemens
Part IX: Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux & Mike Mussina
And, now the list concludes with Part Ten and we begin with…
The Yankees often don’t get enough credit for the fact that they are capable of developing homegrown talent. Back in 1991, the Bombers were a shell of their self-important legacy, but help was on the way. They drafted the best prep pitcher in the country with the number one overall pick and the rest was history.
That pitcher, by the way, was Brien Taylor who never made it to The Show. Andy Pettitte, on the other hand, was an undrafted amateur free agent whom the Yanks signed that same year. Pettitte made his Major League debut in 1995 and spent nine successful seasons in pinstripes. Just how successful he’s been is a matter of conjecture.
Even with last year’s injury plagued season in Houston, Pettitte has averaged 17 wins a season, with 155 wins total. His .654 winning percentage places him in the Top 25 all time. But, a closer look at the numbers show that while Pettitte racks up the W’s, very rarely has he been great. In 1997, he won 18 games, while yielding just 7 home runs in 240 innings. Throw in an ERA that nearly two runs lower than the league average…well, that’s a great season.
The rest of his career numbers are an obvious homage to the goodness of run support. He’s been little more than a slightly above average starter since ’97 and has never again thrown 200+ innings with an ERA under 4.00. (OK, in 2001, he threw 200 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.99 but, still…)
Even his oversized postseason reputation is a bit of overhyped hooey. Pettitte’s gone 13-8 in 30 playoff and World Series starts, but his postseason career ERA is 4.05…a so-so number during the regular season, but positively pedestrian come playoff time. Verdict: Out
How quickly we forget. Nicknamed “The Terminator”, the pride of Dalton, MA was one of the game most consistent closers in the ’80s. Reardon toiled in anonymity for most of that time, while spending 1981-86 in Montreal. But, a preseason trade to Minnesota in 1987 finally put Reardon on the baseball map.
The funny thing is, by then…it was too late. While Reardon was still something of a saves machine, his best seasons were north of the border. By the time he returned to The States, his ERA was now higher than the league’s average all while becoming far too acquainted with the long ball (12 HR in 89 innings). He won a ring with the Twins in ’87, but his 31 saves were often ugly.
Reardon would go on to pitch until May 1994, but his career ended up being equal parts “roller coaster” and “carpetbagger”. That’s not to say that 367 saves aren’t impressive…it’s just not as impressive as you might think. He’d bounce back to put up a career high 42 saves in 1988 with a 2.47 ERA. The following year his ERA was back over 4.00.
He spent 2 ½ solid, if unspectacular seasons as the Red Sox stopper before a high-profile deadline deal sent him to Atlanta in 1992. Reardon was lights out down the stretch, until game two of the World Series, when his blown save signaled the end of his effectiveness as a closer. He’s currently fifth on the all time saves list, but for such an upper echelon placement there, he was really quite average. Verdict: Out
On Tuesday, May 23, 1995, Mariano Rivera made his Major League debut with a start in Anaheim against the Angels. That night, he went 3 1/3 innings, while giving up eight hits and five runs. Hmmm…Mariano Rivera as a starter? So, that’s what got Buck Showalter fired!
Rivera started 10 games that year, then spent his sophomore season setting up for John Wetteland, before finally being crowned closer in 1997. In the eight years since, he’s led the league in saves three times and finished in the top seven in every season. Heading into this season, Rivera had recorded 336 career saves. Even more impressive, his career ERA of 2.43 is more than two runs lower than the league average over the same period of time.
During that ’95 season, Rivera gave up 11 home runs in 67 innings. In the next four seasons combined…he gave up 11 home runs in 310 innings. Rivera’s regular season reputation as “automatic” is seemingly supersized during the postseason. Recent high-profile failures versus Boston and Arizona, notwithstanding, Rivera’s career postseason ERA is 0.75 with 32 saves.
Speaking of “automatic”, Hall of Fame decisions don’t get much easier than this. Even if you think the role of closer and/or the save statistic is overrated and overvalued, Mariano Rivera is arguably the greatest of all time. He’s pitched with an effectiveness that’s raised the standard for the stopper and he can waltz into The Hall anytime he wants. Verdict: In
Much like Jack Morris’ intense ten inning shutout that took the Twins to Game Seven Glory in 1991, there was an October performance last fall that elevated a very good pitcher into an undeserved aura of excellence. Curt Schilling…bloody sock…you might have heard of it. And, then heard about it again. And, again. And, yet again.
Make no mistake, Curt Schilling’s six innings against the Cardinals in the 2004 World Series is going to make for a fine TV movie-of-the-week one day. But, is that one start enough to catapult him into Cooperstown? If it’s not, then do Curt’s career stats stand up to the Hall’s lofty standards? Actually, the answers aren’t as clear as you might think and that, in itself, is surprising.
Just so we’re clear, one start under the hyperbolic cameras of the Fox Network in the fall isn’t enough to get Curt Schilling, or anyone else, into the Hall of Fame. The great ones already had the regular season résumés, while any postseason heroics were just the country gravy atop the big ass biscuit. And, Schilling’s 184 career wins don’t seem to be nearly enough to merit even cursory consideration.
But, look a little deeper…his 2,745 strikeouts places him 18th on the career list. Every other pitcher ahead of him is either in the Hall or will be, except for Frank Tanana, Mickey Lolich and Bert Blyleven (who should be in). His 3.32 career ERA is unexceptional by HOF standards, but that’s about 31% better than the league average over his career. He’s also a six-time All Star, with an 8-2 postseason record and a 2.06 ERA to go with it.
Shamelessly self-serving and an embarrassingly overt ass-kisser to the members of the Fourth Estate, Schilling will get serious consideration. While his career numbers might actually make his own case with a few more years of good health, he currently one of those guys who’s always going to be a little overrated by the fans of the team he’s playing on. Verdict: Out…but, maybe he can go and visit his sock.
A 6’6″, 250 pound brutha who rocked a jheri curl deep into the ’90s should be celebrated for far too many reasons to count. Throw in the fact that he’s also the leader in career saves with 478 and you’d think that his Hall of Fame speech would’ve already been, uh, spoken.
Ah, but it’s never that simple. Lee Smith has learned just how little regard the voters have for the save statistic. Despite having over 50 more saves than his next closest competitor, Smith’s first three years on the HOF ballot have come up short to the road to Cooperstown.
The first reason probably has to do with timing. Smith became a closer in the early ’80s when Bruce Sutter was still the standard-bearer. When Sutter retired, Dennis Eckersley redefined the role in the late ’80s-early ’90s. By then, Smith was bouncing from team to team as a league average reliever, with only occasional flashes of brilliance.
Secondly, even at his peak, Lee Smith was never cut from the same “shut ’em down” mode as a Marino Rivera. Smith gave up his share of hits (about eight hits per 9 innings), despite striking out nearly a batter an inning over his career. Finally, despite being a seven-time All Star, the most enduring memory is the game-winning home run he gave up to Steve Garvey in the 1984 NLCS, which catapulted the Cubs into utter collapse.
So, what’s left to argue? Well, Smith’s career ERA of 3.03 was nearly a full run lower than the league average during his tenure. The save is overvalued stat, but someone’s gotta be the all time leader and it is Lee Smith. He was durable and dependable for the majority of his 18-year career and better than all but the most elite closers in the game. Smith comes in a tick below that standard, so we can classify his career either at “the high end of very good” or “the low end of greatness”. The former says you’re out, the latter says you’re in.
I know I’m gonna hear about this…Verdict: In
On August 12, 1987, the Detroit Tigers, traded a skinny and unproven right-hander to Atlanta for veteran hurler Doyle Alexander. For the next six weeks, it seemed like a steal. Alexander went 9-0 down the stretch to help the Tigers to the AL East crown. As for Atlanta, their immediate results were…not as good.
John Smoltz went 2-7 with a 5.48 ERA in 1988. The Braves would lose 106 games that year, but since they only averaged about 11,000 paying customers a night, it’s not like too many people noticed. In 1989, Smoltz posted a 2.94 ERA, but with the support of the worst offense in the majors, he only won 12 of 29 starts. The 1990 Braves would be the last bad team that Smoltz would ever play on (and he still won 14 games).
Everything changed forever in 1991. Even though Smoltz put up nearly identical stats as he did the year before (solid, but unspectacular), he took his career into the stratosphere that October. With the Braves in the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, Smoltz won both his NLCS starts and valiantly pitched on the wrong side of the 1-0, ten inning classic in Game 7 of the World Series that year.
With his big game reputation pretty much set in stone by the age of 24, Smoltz would spend the rest of the decade throwing hundreds and hundreds of quality innings during the regular season, followed by his usual postseason precision. Oddly enough, he hasn’t had too many seasons that you can classify as “great”. One of those seasons, 1996, earned Smoltz the Cy Young Award. He probably had a better case than Tom Glavine in 1998, but he inexplicably finished fourth in the voting that year.
Many people want to make the Dennis Eckersley comparison when judging Smoltz’ HOF potential. Late in his career, Smoltz spent nearly four full seasons as the league’s dominant closer. It doesn’t work here, though. Eck saved nearly 400 games and changed the role of relief aces. Smoltz was (and is, again) a very good starter and was a terrific closer, but he didn’t do either one for long enough and the clock is running out. And, speaking of out…Verdict: Out.
OK, OK…maybe it wasn’t Dennis Eckersley who changed the role of the closer. Before Bruce Sutter came along, bullpen stoppers were often asked to throw multiple innings to keep opposing hitters at bay. As the 1970s gave way to the 1980s, Sutter was part of the evolution to today’s closer. It was a change that’s firmly entrenched today.
Sutter pitched about 1,042 career innings and averaged roughly 1 2/3 innings per appearance. It’s not the “one and done” approach favored by this generations major league closers, but it was still a dramatic departure from the days when Goose Gossage or Rollie Fingers would enter a game in the sixth or seventh inning to kill a rally. Sutter didn’t need much more than his devastating split-finger fastball and he’s often credited as being the first to consistently throw one at the big league level.
For his career, Sutter racked up exactly 300 saves with an ERA of 2.83. Unfortunately, he only pitched for 12 seasons and is known by many fans as one of the biggest free agent busts in baseball history. His six-year, $10 million contract with Atlanta in 1985 was spent on an aging reliever who’d miss most of the 1986 season and all of the ’87 campaign to injuries, before retiring after the 1988 season.
Still, Bruce Sutter was a six-time All Star and the 1979 Cy Young Award winner. He led the NL in saves on five occasions. And, let’s face it, for a few seasons, he was probably the best closers in baseball. You think all that will get him a discount when he’s buying an admission ticket into the Hall of Fame? Verdict: Out
There was actually a time when Boomer Wells flew under the sports radar. He was an unassuming, marginally effective middle reliever for Toronto in the late ’80s. From there, he bounced back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation with the Jays from 1990-92. Then, on March 30, 1993…he was released.
Wells was considered a spare part on the ’92 Jays team that won it all, so he took his game to Detroit for more mediocrity. Finally, in 1995, Wells put it all together and started the strike-delayed season at 10-3 for the Tigers. He was dealt at the trading deadline to Cincinnati, where he went 6-5 down the stretch and shutout the Dodgers through 6 2/3 in the NLDS. Impressive? Eh, he was traded again a few months later.
Boomer finally cashed in his chips for fame, fortune and psuedo-celebrity when he signed with the Yankees in 1997. And, that’s where most of you came on board, too. Entering 2005, Wells had won 212 games with a glistening winning percentage of .609.
His reputation for well-crafted control is every bit deserved as Wells has averaged just 43 walks in his 18-year career. Wells is also big, bombastic and every bit the type of personality that could curry favor with the gatekeepers of the Hall of Fame.
Wells also has a career ERA of 4.03…a number that’s only slightly better than the league average during his career. His 3.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio puts him in the top 25 all time, but he’s only averaged 133 K’s per season over his career, while never striking out more than 169 in a single season. He’s been good to very good, at times…on one day he was perfect…but, for the Hall? No chance. Verdict: Out
A journeyman infielder who collected about 600 at bats over two seasons with the Yankees in the ’60s, Cox began managing professionally in 1971. He worked his way up to first base coach with the New York Yankees in 1977, before being named manager of the Atlanta Braves before the ’78 season.
And, how fleeting is the “genius” tag? Cox’s Braves lost 93 and 94 games in his first two years, before his first winning season (81-80) in 1980. He was fired after the ’81 season, when Atlanta finished a distant fifth in the division. (His replacement would take the Braves to the playoffs the following year, but we’ll get to him in a second). Cox spent 1982-85 as manager of a much more talented Toronto Blue Jays squad. The Jays averaged 89 wins/year, peaking in ’85 with their first ever playoff appearance.
Toronto lost to Kansas City in a heartbreaking ALCS, dropping games six and seven at home. Immediately after the season, Cox returned to Atlanta as General Manager and then went back to the dugout when Russ Nixon was fired in 1990. And, for the 3/5 of a season that he managed, the Braves went 40-57…which, to date, would be his last losing season.
Not counting the strike year of 1994, the Braves have never won fewer than 88 games. And despite their well-heeled finances, they’ve often won with glaring weaknesses at key positions such as the Sid Bream years at first base, the revolving door at closer and, of course, the curious case of Rafael Belliard. A lot of the credit has to go to Cox’s ubiquitous pitching coach, Leo Mazzone and the All Star array of starting arms that have called the ATL home.
But, 13 playoff appearances and the complete resurrection of a moribund franchise go a long way towards re-writing a manager’s legacy. Postseason failures, notwithstanding, Cox is one of the two most successful managers of this era. Verdict: In
OK…so, let’s see if I’ve got this straight: When Joe Torre managed the Mets, he was a loser, but when he set up shop with the Yankees, he’s a legendary winner. Now, when he managed in St. Louis, he was barely average, but when he guided the Braves he was slight above average. Yeah…makes perfect sense.
So, do good managers make good teams or vice versa? Well, those Mets teams of the late ’70s were quite the irascible squad (Doug Flynn, anyone?) Those clubs weren’t built to win, so much as they were merely placeholders before the Frank Cashen GM era commenced in 1981. By then, Torre was shown the door and took the Braves to the playoffs in 1982. He’d only last two more years before his firing in 1984. After that, he joined the California Angels’ broadcast team.
When the Cardinals came calling in 1990, they were entering a new decade after a successful run in the ’80s that produced three NL pennants and a world championship. Unfortunately, speed never ages well and the high-octane talent that would run you to death a few years before was now on life support.
And, then there were the Yankees. In 1995, Buck Showalter had brought the Bronx Bombers back from the dead with their first playoff appearance in nearly 15 years. The never-say-die Mariners torpedoed the Yanks in the ALDS, rallying from a 2-0 deficit to beat The Boss’ boys. Big Stein was not pleased.
Buck was out, Joe Torre was in and with most of the framework already in place (with a rookie named “Derek” thrown in for grins) the Yanks won it all in 1996. Since then, Torre has led the Yanks to six AL pennants and four World Series crowns, while compiling a .610 winning percentage. On non-Yanks teams, his winning percentage was .470. He’s obviously a genius…except in those nearly 2,000 games when he wasn’t. Verdict: In
The HOF 100 couldn’t have been completed without the resources of Baseball-Reference.com, baseballprospectus.com, & too many years spent in front of the TV watching ballgames…
