“I wish we wouldn’t wait until the last inning to win, but a win is a win, especially against California or … the Angels. They change their name every two weeks.”
–White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, on winning in the ninth inning against the Angels.
This years Major League draft has come and gone. Now comes the speculation. First, many rumors about players futures will be leaked. For example, the Red Sox drafted OF Jacob Ellsbury will be the reason the Red Sox are not going to sign Johnny Damon. Ellsbury is projected to be a Damon-like player, but he is a few years away from being ready. There would be no good reason for letting Damon, a free agent after this season, go because this guy was drafted. Scouts say that most draft picks are projected to be ready in 3-5 years, unless they are relievers (a la Huston Street). Another example is the Rangers first round pick John Mayberry Jr will be replacing Mark Teixeira. His contract expires in 2008 and he is a Scott Boras client (they say he will want $100 million contract). This could happen, but that’s 3 seasons away; a lot can happen between now and then. Teams draft the best player, not for need (unlike football and basketball). Secondly, you will have the yearly contract talk. Most teams will have no problem signing their players. Scott Boras’s clients are typically the worst about signing (see Stephen Drew and Jared Weaver). Some of the high school players and non-senior college players will chose school over the pros. For the first round picks, check here.
The Rumors
A huge blockbuster trade could be on the horizon, between the Mets and the Giants; some of the names involved include Jason Schmidt, Kaz Matsui, Yusmeiro Petit, Aaron Heilman, Edgardo Alfonso and cash…The White Sox have decided to test the DH/OF market by putting Carl Everett’s name out there…The Rockies are looking for a shortstop replacement (see Clint Barmes below)…Andy Pettitte is saying the Roger Clemens won’t be traded (since he has control over it? WTF)…Danny Graves was expected to sign with the Marlins last week; instead, the Mets swept in and got him…Brad Penny’s extension (that should be signed soon) could show Jeff Weaver the door in Los Angeles; the Dodgers may have $26 million locked up on 3 starters…Oakland is interested in P Joe Kennedy; Colorado likes Eric Byrnes and has been scouting their Triple A team…Sammy Sosa wants to finish his career in Baltimore; no talks have started yet…Manny Ramirez may retire after his contract expires; the Red Sox are still investigating moving him after the season…Kevin Millar and John Olerud have not solved the first base problem in Boston; the team is looking at several young players, like Casey Kotchman, Connor Jackson, and Adrian Gonzalez.
Manager Hot Seats: Dave Miley and his staff know they are on the hot seat with the Reds…speculation about Don Mattingly’s job security is still floating around, especially after being swept by the Royals and almost the Brewers…Marlins hitting coach Bill Robinson could be collecting unemployment soon; management is upset with the team not scoring…5 unidentified Marlins players have said manager Jack McKeon is the reason for the teams struggles (citing line up changes and harsh critiques); McKeon said he was unaware of the feelings…Bruce Bochy is about to get a contract extension from the Padres.
The week that was:
The Good
Andy Marte – Marte is one of the top prospects in the Braves system, and in Baseball in general. He will get his shot to prove himself, and show the Braves which way the franchise will move. If he is successful in the next 4-6 weeks (which is how long Chipper Jones is expected to miss), he will either take over third and move Chipper to the outfield, or Chipper’s days may be numbered. Marte had been working in the outfield in Triple A, but his glove is too valuable to move from third. Jones slumped while playing in the outfield, but he is a horrible fielding third baseman. Pick up Marte, and, if he is hitting after the first week or two, he should be activated.
National’s Pitchers – Three letters for you: RFK. Washington’s football stadium has been killing home runs this season; so much so that Jose Guillen is asking to have the OF walls pulled in (much like Mike Cameron and Seattle a few years ago). This season, RFK has been the top pitchers park in baseball. Livan Hernandez is a must start anywhere he pitches. Esteban Loaiza and John Patterson are must starts at home and on the road with favorable parks and match ups (Patterson is better right now than Loaiza, although he hasn’t had a decision since 4/26). Any other start could be good for 2 starts at home, or favorable match ups.
Even with a fractured hand, you can’t keep Ivan Rodriguez down; Pudge has 9 hits in his last 23 at bats, with 2 homers…The Texas bats are heating up…Learn from me; don’t bench Freddy Garcia at Colorado (who would have thought)…How does Johan Santana, 2 time Cy Young winner sound; Pedro Martinez maybe glad he won’t lose out to Santana again (these are my 2 Cy Young picks, if Pedro stays healthy)…Thanks Larry for Billy Wagner and Eddie Guardado.
The Bad
Jaret Wright – I felt that the Yankee’s signing Wright was a bad move. He had a good season with the Braves, but he was leaving Leo Mazzone (the best pitching coach in baseball) for Mel Stottlemeyer (he doesn’t coach, he’s just there). With Wright’s injury history and inconsistencies, the contract he got was incredibly stupid. The only saving grace for the Yankees is a clause that says his contract can be bought out prior to the last season if he spends X days on the DL in a season (I don’t know the exact number). Apparently, Wright is coming up on that number. If they invoke this clause, the Yankees will save $3 million dollars.
Mike Matheny – Don’t get me wrong here, I love Matheny. He is probably the top defensive catcher in baseball. He works increadibly well with pitchers and is a club house leader. The only problem is his offense. Matheny has to be one of the weakest offensive players in baseball. The only fantasy saving grace is the fact that he is incredible in the first month of the season. He isn’t recommended to be taken after April.
Jeffrey Hammonds retired this week; he was still playing (?); in an ideal world, Michael Tucker shouldn’t be far behind…Mike Lamb is showing why he isn’t an everyday player (except when injury strikes); he has been hitless for a few games…Kaz Ishii had a WHIP of 1.89 in his last start; that could be a record for him.
The Ugly
The Devil Rays – I have mentioned in the past about the problems with the outfield. To make it worse, the designated one of there better hitters for assignment (granted, he would probably have not been on many other teams). Josh Phelps was 3 for his last 12 (much better than some in this column), but had problems staying with the Indians and the Blue Jays in the last few years. Someone seriously needs to get Chuck LaMarr away from the GM position and help Lou Pinella. The team has the hitting talent (the pitching is another story), but continually does nothing with it.
Crappy 2 start pitchers – After 2 years of serious head to head competition, you would think I have learned my lesson on certain 2 starts pitchers. Every time I see that Kirk Rueter has 2 starts at home, I tend to take him and think he can’t burn me again. Every time I am wrong. After 1 start this week, he had me a whopping -11 points. I am praying he does better on Sunday, but I’m not holding my breath (basically, do as I say, and not as I do).
Wily Mo Pena has come off the DL; the Reds are expected to move an outfielder…Now would be the time to watch for Kelvim Escobar on the waiver wire; he is out with bone spurs (again) with a DL trip likely, so stash him away…Mark Mulder had another rough outing this week; overall he has done well and has been worth Dan Haren (who is doing well with no run support), Kiko Calero (just back from the DL), and Daric Barton (who is struggling big time in the minors).
Trades
The Phillies trade Placido Polonco to the Tigers for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez – This deal helps both teams. Polonco will instantly be put in the SS spot to give Carlos Guillen some time to heal his hamstring and knee. He will also be an upgrade over Omar Infante at second, and gives more flexibility for Brandon Inge. Urbina will step into the closer role once Billy Wagner is traded (he is a free agent at the end of the season). For the mean time, he will shore up a somewhat shaky bullpen. Martinez was just a throw in, but is an upgrade over bench man Tomas Perez for the Phils.
The Brewers send Junior Spivey to the Nationals for Tomo Ohka – This was more of a dump for the Brewers, as Rickie Weeks is waiting to take over the position. Spivey will be the start until Jose Vidro is back from injury and able to play everyday. He is decent as a back up, but wait to see how he responds to RFK stadium. Ohka has a decent arm and was pitching well last season before a broken bone ended his season early. At the time, many teams were interested in him for a back end starter. This season he struggled and was demoted to the bullpen (but always came back to the rotation due to injuries and other players inconsistencies). He will be inserted into the bullpen and has no fantasty value.
Rookie Watch:
ROY candidate Clint Barmes is most likely done for the season (broker collar bone) in a non-baseball injury; he fell on the stairs at his apartment…Ryan Church has been hot for the Nationals; he was a double away from the cycle on Wednesday night…Rickie Weeks may get the call for the Brewers (see Spivey trade); he is worth getting in any league…Grab Andy Marte of the Braves and Ryan Doumit while you’re at it…I don’t know if David Wright is really a rookie, but many don’t know him yet; he was 8 for his last 22 with 5 RBIs.
Injury Watch:
Kerry Wood (Shoulder) threw a simulated game this week; he is expected to be back before the month is over…Cub teammate Mark Prior threw long toss for the first time since fracturing a bone in his elbow; Prior is ahead of schedule but there is no time table for his return…Magglio Ordonez (Hernia) has started shagging fly balls and working in the batting cage; his return is expected after the All Star Break…Brad Wilkerson is battling a nerve problem in his right arm; he said it could be a problem all year and he is changing how he prepares for a game…Jeff Bagwell had surgery on his ailing shoulder; many are saying that the surgery will give another couple of years in baseball or force an early retirement…Scott Rolen (shoulder) is nearing a return; he took grounders and batting practice for the first time since the injury…Rich Harden’s target date is June 21st.
Upcoming 2 start pitchers: (DISCLAIMER: All of these should be checked on Sunday to make sure they are 2 start pitchers. Go to 2 start pitchers link on RotoChamps to check. (THE GIANTS DO NOT AT THIS TIME HAVE A STARTER PICKED FOR 2 STARTS THIS WEEK)
Must Start
Matt Clement (Cin, Pit), Dontrelle Willis (@ ChC, @ LaA), Mike Mussina (Pit, ChC), Jake Peavy (@ Det, @ Min), Johan Santana (SF, SD)
Don’t Start
Doug Waechter (Mil, StL), Byung-Hyun Kim (@ Cle, @ Bal), Joe Blanton (NyM, Phi), Eric Milton (@ Bos, Atl), Chad Gaudin (StL, Mil)
Sleepers
Hayden Penn (Hou, Col), Chris Young (Atl, Was), Chris Capuano (@ TB, @Tor), Gil Meche (Phi, NyM), Glendon Rusch (Fla, NyY)
Other Possible 2 Starts:
Jon Lieber (@ Sea, @ Oak), Jeff Suppan (@ Tor, @ TB), Brandon Backe (@ Bal, @KC), Shawn Estes (@ ChW, @ Cle), Jose Contreras (Ari, LaD), Tim Hudson (@ Tex, @ Cin), Esteban Loaiza (@ LaA, @ Tex), Paul Byrd (Was, Fla), Dave Williams (@NyY, @ Bos), Scott Elarton (Col, Ari), Jason Johnson (SD, SF), Jeff Weaver (@ KC, @ ChW), Runelvys Hernandez (LaD, Hou), Victor Zambrano (@ Oak, @ Sea)
League Leaders
Rank, Player, Team, AVG
1, Derrek Lee, Cubs, .378
2, Brian Roberts, Orioles, .369
3, Carlos Guillen, Tigers, .355
4, Nick Johnson, Nationals, .341
5, Johnny Damon, Red Sox, .339
Rank, Player, Team, Home Runs
1, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 19
2, Miguel Tejada, Orioles, 17
2, Derrek Lee, Cubs, 17
4, Mark Teixeira, Rangers, 16
5, 5 others, 15
Rank, Player, Team, RBIs
1, Carlos Lee, Brewers, 55
2, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 53
3, Derrek Lee, Cubs, 52
4, Pat Burrell, Phillies, 51
5, Miguel Tejada, Orioles, 50
Rank, Player, Team, Runs
1, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 48
2, Bobby Abreu, Phillies, 46
3, Derrek Lee, Cubs, 45
3, Mark Teixeira, Rangers, 45
5, Brady Clark, Brewers, 44
5, Alfonso Soriano , Rangers, 44
Rank, Player, Team, SBs
1, Scott Podsednik, White Sox, 31
2, Rafael Furcal, Braves, 21
2, Chone Figgins, Angels, 21
4, Ryan Freel, Reds, 17
4, Willy Taveraz, Astros, 17
Rank, Player, Team, Wins
1, Dontrelle Willis, Marlins, 10
2, Jon Garland, White Sox, 9
2, Livan Hernandez, Nationals, 9
2, Adam Eaton, Padres, 9
2, Roy Halladay, Blue Jays, 9
Rank, Player, Team, ERA
1, Kenny Rogers, Rangers, 1.62
2, Roger Clemens, Astros, 1.67
3, Mike Hampton, Braves, 1.83
4, Glendon Rusch, Cubs, 2.07
5, Erik Bedard, Orioles, 2.08
Rank, Player, Team, Saves
1, Joe Nathan, Twins, 17
1, Billy Wagner, Phillies, 17
1, Jose Mesa, Pirates, 17
1, Trevor Hoffman, Padres, 17
1, Eddie Guardado, Mariners, 17
1, Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals, 17
Rank, Player, Team, Ks
1, Johan Santana, Twins, 114
2, Pedro Martinez, Mets, 104
3, Jake Peavy, Padres, 84
4, Chris Carpenter, Cardinals, 83
5, Brett Myers, Phillies, 82
Rank, Player, Team, WHIP
1, Pedro Martinez, Mets, 0.67
2, Johan Santana, Twins, 0.89
3, Roger Clemens, Astros, 0.93
4, Jake Peavy, Padres, 0.95
5, Roy Halladay, Blue Jays, 0.97
Links
RotoChamps can take care of all your fantasy needs.
I had the opportunity to interview minor league player Dave Matranga. He’s a good guy, so check it out here and root for him to make it with the Angels.
Aaron reviews the Dodger Blue DVD.
Patrick’s back this week.
Nick seems to be the only person here that has an article up on a regular basis. Where’s everyone else?
The Forums
This weeks trade was made possible with the help of the Hawks. I gave him Carlos Delgado, Jon Lieber, Mike Lowell, and Brad Penny for Aubrey Huff, Derek Lowe, and Esteban Loaiza. I was told I got taken on the deal, but I offered it (I like Lowe and Loaiza in their home parks, and Huff is a monster starting this month). What do you think?
I wanted to leave with another quote:
“No. I signed a s*** loan earlier. I’m done.”
–David Wells to my brother-in-law, a buddy, and myself when we asked for an autograph Monday night (there were young kids and angry parents present when he said this).
E-mail or post questions, trade scenarios, and comments. Thanks.
