LEADING OFF
Sorry for the lateness gang. I was in baseball Nirvana watching beloved White Sox sweep that smug grin off the face of Chris Berman and Red Sox Nation last night, and was in no condition to bring you the goods. I hope Saturday Night’s Alright, Alright!
WEEK FIVE
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-2) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (3-1)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Falcons favored by 3
The Storyline
The two-time defending Super Bowl Champs have looked very, very ordinary this year. Their defense is banged up and was eviscerated by the Chargers last week, and their running game has been non-existent and unable to keep that defense off the field. The staggering champs face a Falcons team that has met expectations, and played like one of the league’s elite thus far.
KEY QUESTIONS
What does Tom Brady say to opposing coaches commenting on the state of his team?
“DON’T GO THERE GIRLFRIEND!” Brady, had this to say in a press conference this week in response to a comment made by Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer that the Pats had reached their “tipping point” of being able to absorb injuries: “You don’t talk about our team. He has no business talking about our team. He’s not our coach. We’ll let our coach talk about our team. We’ll let our players talk about our team.”
What’s Doug Flutie been up to this week?
Flutie has been playing the role of Michael Vick in practice this week. He has been running the Falcons’ offense for the scout team and giving the Patriots the feel of what it will be like to face a mobile quarterback. Flutie is what you would call a method actor, and he has immersed himself in his new role, even going so far as to intentionally contract Chlamydia.
What’s Vick’s injury status?
The Falcons are not saying for sure either way whether or not Vick will play this week. He has a sprained knee, and has been wearing a Stone Cold Steve Austin brace on it this week, but remains adamant that he will be able to play this week. So barring disaster, Vick will be in the lineup. The Falcons need this game to stay within striking distance of the Bucs, and won’t be able to win without Vick, so he’ll be in there if at all possible.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Running the football is the key to success in the NFL. In this game, you have the Falcon’s #1 ranked rushing offense squaring off against the 23rd ranked rush defense, which may be missing its best remaining player, Richard Seymour, for this game. On the other side of the ball, the Super Bowl champs are 32nd and dead flippin last in the NFL in rushing offense. Atlanta runs an offense similar to San Diego’s, heavily dependent on the running game and passes down the middle of the field to the tight end, and we saw how the Patriots defense deals with that: not very well. Atlanta’s won nine of their last 10 home games,
If New England again is unable to run the ball, they won’t be able to win this game. The good news is, Atlanta’s run defense has been shaky this year. Willis McGahee and Shaun Alexander both torched the Falcons for over 140 yards. The outcome of this game rides on the shoulders of Corey Dillon and the Patriots’ O line. So far this year, they haven’t shown they can get it done, and I don’t think the Georgia Dome is a good place to break that trend.
FALCONS 23, PATRIOTS 17
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Patriots Win- A huge win against on the road against one of the league’s best squashes all talk of the Patriots being in decline. They travel to Denver in Week Six for yet another very difficult road test.
Patriots Lose- A 2-3 start seems certain to become a 2-4 start with a trip to Mile High on deck. With all the injuries, it is painfully obvious that, Quite Frankly, Tom Brady is not all the Patriots need.
Falcons Win- Another test passed. The 4-1 Falcons look every bit the Super Bowl contender, and will need to be on top of their game in Week 6 when they travel to San Antonio to meet the division rival Saints.
Falcons Lose- The Falcons are 3-2 and have been inconsistent. The Saints and their newfound fans will be ready to try and throw their hat in the ring in the NFC South race against the Falcons next week.
Trying Times for Brady
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-1) AT BUFFALO BILLS (1-3)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Bills favored by 2 ½
The Storyline
Now that Dave Wannstedt is busy losing to the Ohio University Bobcats, instead of pretending to be an NFL coach, the Dolphins have returned to playing competitive football. In fact, at the quarter pole of the season they are the unlikely leaders in the AFC East. Standing in stark contrast are the Buffalo Bills. They made a bad decision to hand their team over to a guy that was quarterbacking Tulane to 32 point losses to the University of Memphis only two years ago, but somehow in the Bills’ eyes was magically transformed into the second coming of Terry Bradshaw between then and now. They have paid for that miscalculation with a 1-3 start, and have handed the offense over to veteran Kelly Holcomb for this game.
KEY QUESTIONS
How have the Bills reacted to the QB change?
With muted glee. Veterans who know the clock is always ticking on their short careers don’t like having to sacrifice a year of their NFL life losing behind a young, incompetent quarterback. The dean of the Bills, WR Eric Moulds, told the Buffalo News, “”I’ve talked to a lot of the veteran players and we want to win now.”
What’s the secret behind the Dolphins early season success?
When you look at this team, there really is no reason they shouldn’t be playing well. There is a lot of talent here. The defense is one of the better units in the league, and the offense has a lot of exciting players at the skill positions, and has been underestimated by its opponents this year.
Are the Dolphins a playoff contender?
This game will tell answer that question. Right now, they look like the second best team in the AFC East, and with the Patriots as banged up as they are they may even be the best. Beating the Bills on the road would pretty much cement their claim to being one of the top teams in the division, and that means they are a playoff contender.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Losman’s not the sole reason the Bills are 1-3. The Bills rank 31st in the league in rushing defense, and that more than anything is the reason why they have been so bad. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 3rd in the league in rushing defense, and the Bills are going to have a difficult time establishing Willis McGahee, which is essential for their offense to succeed.
The Bills won both meetings between these teams last year, but both games were close. The Dolphins are a better team than they were last year, and maybe good enough to close that gap. In the last 2 seasons, the Dolphins are 5-5 at home, but only 1-8 on the road, and were awful in their lone road game this year, a 17-7 loss at the Jets. Miami is going to give the Bills all they can handle, but winning on the road is learned behavior, and the Dolphins haven’t learned how yet.
BILLS 23, DOLPHINS 20
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Dolphins Win- A win at Buffalo means the Dolphins are for real. A victory puts them at 3-1, and makes the Week 6 trip to Tampa a clash between surprising division leaders.
Dolphins Lose- With the AFC East up for grabs, it’s important the Dolphins stay focused even with a 2-2 record. A win at Tampa would keep them right on course for a playoff berth.
Bills Win- A division win under a new quarterback gives the Bills a new beginning to their 05 season. They can even their record next week with a home win against the disastrous Jets.
Bills Lose- Losing to the Dolphins at home would be a final nail in the coffin for the Bills. They won’t bounce back from a 1-4 start, and at that point it would be better to put Losman back on the field for the rest of the season and hope he makes progress.
CHICAGO BEARS (1-2) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-2)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Browns favored by 3
THE STORYLINE
Both teams head into this game an uninspiring 1-2, but one of them is actually in first place. The Bears have the benefit of playing in the league’s weakest division in recent memory, and because of that should be in the playoff race all year. The Browns don’t have the luxury of harboring any playoff illusions, but they’ve made a lot of progress so far under new coach Romeo Crennel, and a win here would be another step forward.
KEY QUESTIONS
When will the Browns allow Braylon Edwards to play a bigger role in the offense?
Edwards has shown flashes of the ability that made him the third overall pick in the draft this year, but is being brought along very slowly. He is the third wide receiver behind Antonio Bryant and Dennis Northcutt, and that doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon. “[Edwards] is our No. 3 receiver and he has shown some progress,” coach Romeo Crennel told the Chicago Tribune. “He held out of camp [13 days] so that put him behind a little bit. But he has caught up. We have been able to use him in some of our multiple receiver sets and he has produced.”
When will the Bears allow Cedric Benson to play a bigger role in the offense?
Only a backward ass organization like the Bears would allow the 4th overall pick in the draft to sit and rot the way the Bears have so far this year, while at the same time starting a 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick at 2 other critical skill positions (QB Kyle Orton and now WR Mark Bradley). Benson was ranked right up there with Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown before the draft, and both of those guys have gotten a chance to play and win games for their teams this year. Not Benson. He has sat behind Thomas Jones and doesn’t figure to supplant him, barring injury, anytime soon.
How much of a home field advantage does Cleveland have?
Absolutely none. The Browns are 14-35 at home since they were in reincarnated in 1999.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Bears have fared pretty well against the AFC recently. Since 2003, they are 4-4 against the junior circuit, while they are 13-18 against the NFC in that same time. The Browns have been competitive this year because of their passing game. They have averaged only 75 yards a game on the ground. The Bears rank 5th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing only 175 passing yards per game . If the Bears stick to what they are good at, running the ball, they should be able to control the clock and the game, and come away with a victory.
BEARS 20, BROWNS 10
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Bears Win- This is a big game for the Bears. A win puts them at 2-2 and keeps them atop the NFC North, with winnable home games against Minnesota and Baltimore up next.
Bears Lose- If the Bears are truly making any progress at all as an organization, the Browns are a team they should beat at this point in time. A loss would put them at 1-3, and you might see Jeff Blake at QB when they take on the Vikings in Week 6.
Browns Win- This is a winnable game for the Browns, and they’re not going to have too many of those this year. A 2-2 start would be a great beginning to their rebuilding though, and would send them into Baltimore on a high next week.
Browns Lose- A loss would take a little bit of wind out of the sails of a team that’s played hard and well so far this year. They’ll be up for next week’s division game against their archrivals though.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-2) AT DETROIT LIONS (1-2)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Lions favored by 1 ½
The Storyline
Two teams off to bad starts try to avoid getting off to VERY bad starts.
KEY QUESTIONS
Who’s been the most productive of Detroit’s wide receivers?
No, not Roy Williams. Not Mike Williams. Definitely not Charles Rogers. Would you believe Kevin Johnson? The former Ravens and Browns discard is tied for the team lead with 10 receptions.
Is there more to the story of why Jamal Lewis hasn’t played well this year?
Maybe. And no, it has nothing to do with being in prison. Lewis has maintained that the Ravens promised to have a new contract for him before this season started. Well, the season’s started and there is still no new contract. Lewis is not happy with the Ravens, and it has coincided with subpar performance so far this year.
How do the Lions feel about their disappointing performance?
RB Kevin Jones doesn’t feel too good about it. He told the Detroit Free Press, “I’m not happy. I’m not happy because we have potential to be a real good team, and we don’t show it on offense. That’s basically the bottom line. We should have won all the games we played. Even with Tampa having a good scheme, we still could have done some things different and better as a staff and as players to come out on top of the game.”
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Lions have lost 11 out their last 12 games against the AFC dating back to 2002. The Ravens, meanwhile, have won 6 out of their last 8 against the NFC. The Lions are going to have a very hard time establishing the ground game against the Ravens’ 2nd ranked run defense, which will leave the task of moving the ball up to Joey Harrington, which is never a good thing. Expect an ugly game, with the Ravens coming out on top.
RAVENS 17, LIONS 16
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Ravens Win- It hasn’t been pretty, but the Ravens find themselves even at 2-2 with a win. They’ll get ready for a big divisional home game against the Browns next week.
Ravens Lose- A crucial loss sends the Ravens to 1-3, and with the Bengals and Steelers ahead of them in the AFC North, they can pretty much forget about the playoffs this year.
Lions Win- Every win for an NFC North team is a huge one, because it won’t take that many of them to win the division. Beating the Ravens evens the Lions record and gives them a big confidence boost heading into a home game against Carolina.
Lions Lose- Another week stuck in neutral. The Lions are 1-3 with a loss to the Ravens, but fortunately for them still have time to pull it together and get back in the division race.
Joey Does This A lot
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-2) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-4)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Packers favored by 3
The Storyline
Only in the horrid NFC North can an 0-4 team feel they are well on their way to a division championship. But as crazy as that sounds, the Packers may not be that out of line in feeling that way. Brett Favre led a stirring comeback on Monday Night against Carolina last week, and if the offense starts humming again, the Packers will win some games and get back in the race. They take on a Saints team that is coming off a nice win in San Antonio over the Bills, breaking a two game losing streak.
KEY QUESTIONS
Has the Packers drafting his successor in Aaron Rodgers affected the play of Favre?
Not according to Troy Aikman, who interviewed Favre recently for Fox Sports. “If it was me, I would have been upset about that,” Aikman said. “I asked Brett how he felt about it, and I think he was pretty honest about the answer. It didn’t upset him and actually he was surprised it didn’t happen a little bit sooner. But having said that, considering where they are at, he would have liked to have seen them bring in some defensive help.”
How banged up is the Pack for this game?
Very. They’ll be without center Mike Flanagan and linebacker Na’il Diggs, both of whom were injured in Monday’s loss to the Packers. Flanagan could be out for the season with knee problems and will be replaced by second year player Scott Wells. Diggs is expected to miss six weeks with an MCL sprain.
Who was the Saints MVP last week?
WR Dante Stallworth stepped up last week to be the #1 receiver in the absence of Joe Horn. He caught 8 passes for 129 yards. Horn is questionable for this week. If he can’t go, the Packers’ shaky secondary is going to have to dedicate a lot of resources to shutting down Stallworth, and treat him as a big-time receiver.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Saints have been very vulnerable against the run this year, but fortunately for them, the Packers running game scares no one. Ahman Green is questionable for this week, and if he can’t go, Najeh Davenport will play. The Saints’ pass defense has been pretty good though, they rank 6th in the league yardage wise, although a lot of that is due to teams having so much success running on them. They have a strong pass rush though, and against the Packers’ patchwork offensive line, that will make problems for Favre.
The Packers have been very mediocre at home lately, losing 6 out of their last 10 at Lambeau. They also have been handled pretty easily by two other NFC South teams this year, Tampa and Carolina. The Saints beat Carolina on the road, and they should be able to do the same to the Packers this week.
SAINTS 30, PACKERS 24
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Saints Win- The Saints have performed admirably in the face of unprecedented adversity this year. A win at Green Bay puts them at 3-2, and sets up a huge game in the Alamodome next week with Atlanta.
Saints Lose- A loss keeps the Saints treading water, and makes the Week Six game with the Falcons a make-or-break affair.
Packers Win- Never has 1-4 felt so good. A win gets a gigantic monkey off the Pack’s backs, and they can move forward with their season after a Week 6 bye.
Packers Lose- 0-5 could very easily turn into 0-7, and possibly even 0-9. After the bye, the Packers have road games at Minnesota and Cincinnati, followed by a home game against Pittsburgh, and a roadie at Atlanta. Ouch.
TENNESSEE TITANS (1-3) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (0-3)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Texans favored by 3
The Storyline
The Old Houston Oilers meet the New Houston Oilers in a game only their mothers and people with gambling addictions could love.
KEY QUESTIONS
On a team of underachievers, who has underachieved most in Houston?
That would be their heralded trio of corners. Dunta Robinson, Philip Buchanon, and Demarcus Faggins were hailed as being possibly the strongest group in the league at that position coming into the season. Heading into their 4th game of the season, the Texans rank 25th in the league in pass defense, and have not even forced a turnover all season.
The Texans made a lot of changes this offseason to protect David Carr, how’s that working out?
Super. Despite only playing 3 games instead of 4, the Texans have given up 20 sacks this year, tied with Minnesota for the worst in the league.
How’s the selection of Pacman Jones with the seventh overall pick working out for the Titans?
That’s working out super too. The Adelphia Coliseum fans have already taken to booing him mercilessly, and in Sunday’s loss to the Colts, he had 3 penalties called on him, fumbled a kickoff, and got burned by Reggie Wayne for a TD on the games opening drive. Chomp chomp dee licious.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Last year the Texans swept the season series with the Titans. In the meeting in Nashville, the Texans won by forcing Steve McNair to throw 4 Int’s. This year the Texans have yet to force a turnover, so winning by that modicum is unlikely. In the second meeting, Domanick Davis rushed for 129 yards on 16 carries, and that is what the Texans will need to do to win this game, run the ball effectively.
The Texans have lost 6 out of their last 8 at home, so the fact that the game is in Houston doesn’t mean a whole lot. The Titans are 2-6 on artificial turf dating back to the beginning of the 03 season though, and that does count for something. Houston played pretty well coming off the bye week in a 16-10 loss at the Bengals last week. This is as good a time as any for them to pick up their first win of the season. So let’s give it to them.
TEXANS 27, TITANS 23
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Titans Win- A road win against a division foe is a big step in the right direction. The Titans gear up to welcome the Bengals in week six, hoping to even their record at 3-3.
Titans Lose- A 1-4 start affirms that the 2005 Titans are a team in transition, just hoping to survive the season with their dignity intact.
Texans Win- The Texans need to win, now. Lots of people’s jobs are on the line this year in Houston, and the honeymoon is definitely over. This game is a must win.
Texans Lose- If the Texans lose this game, they don’t figure to get a win until their 7th game of the year, a home game against Cleveland. They would drag an 0-4 mark onto a national Sunday Night stage next week at Seattle.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2) AT ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-2)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Rams favored by 3
The Storyline
3 games between these teams last year, 3 Rams wins. Included in those were a first round playoff win in Seattle, and an unfathomable fourth quarter comeback in that same venue. The Rams are the stumbling block that stands between the Seahawks and membership in the NFC’s elite.
KEY QUESTIONS
Who’s a marked man in this game?
Rams WR Torry Holt is. He questioned the Seahawks’ mental toughness last offseason, and the Seahawks noticed. We take those things personal,” said Seahawk Grant Wistrom, a former teammate of Holt with the Rams
How did Rams fans react to last week’s 20 point pasting at the hands of the Giants?
Not very well. One of the most popular winter sports in St. Louis, along with Blues hockey, is calling for the blood of coach Mike Martz. There’s a sense that this team has underachieved for years now, and the Rams’ constituents are getting tired of it.
Who’s got a very key injury in this game.
The Seahawks do. WR Darrell Jackson, one of the more underrated wideouts in the game, has a torn meniscus in his knee, and doctors are advising he have surgery on it, which would keep him out for weeks. Jackson caught 12 passes for 128 yards in the playoff game between these teams last year. Making matters worse is that the Hawks’ other starting wideout, Bobby Engram, is also listed as doubtful for this game. If those two can’t go, Joe Jurevicius and Peter Warrick will start. Yikes.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Well, it’s been well documented that the Seahawks dropped 3 games to the Rams last year. It doesn’t help that they will probably be missing both of their starting wideouts for this one either. The Seahawks will have to lean very, very heavily on Shaun Alexander in this game. The Rams run defense has actually been pretty good this year, ranking 9th in the league, and with the Hawks passing game so obviously wounded, they will be geared up to stop Alexander.
The Rams have not lost a division game at home since the divisions were rejiggered in 2002. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be the first.
RAMS 30, SEAHAWKS 17
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Seahawks Win- A win at St. Louis would be the breakthrough this franchise is so desperately in need of. The Hawks have 2 home games coming up after this, winnable games against Houston and Dallas. That could put the Hawks at 5-2 and very much in command in the NFC West.
Seahawks Lose- Another loss to the Rams would be demoralizing, but not crippling in the weak NFC West. But a 2-3 start would set up the next two games before the bye week as must wins.
Rams Win- It’s always good to have the main rival in your division be your bitch. A win allows the Rams to keep their air of arrogance and gives them first place in the NFC West at 3-2.
Rams Lose- A loss here, and Rams Nation is REALLY going to start yelling for Martz’s head. A Monday Night game against the Colts next week means the Rams will most likely be 2-4, and essentially 3 games behind the Seahawks.
A Win Against Seattle Would Turn Some Frowns Upside Down In the Loo
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-0) AT NY JETS (1-3)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Bucs favored by 3
The Storyline
Vinny Testaverde makes his return to the NFL against the team that drafted him 74 years ago.
Preoccupied With 1985
Key Questions
Are the Jets going to be competitive now that Vinny’s at QB?
Vinny can’t be any worse than Chad Pennington or Brooks Bollinger have been this year. Chad was not healthy from day 1, the Jets played him anyway and it might cost them their season. Vinny played well in Dallas last year, and he will be serviceable for the Jets this year.
How’s Curtis Martin feeling?
Not good. Part of the reason he hasn’t played well this year is because of a sore right knee. He has sat out practice all week this week, although he plans to play on Sunday.
Is Cadillac going to be put on cinder blocks this week?
Don’t bet on it. According to the St. Petersburg Times, Williams’ foot injury is improving. Williams carried only 11 times for 17 yards last week, which would indicate he has been overused, but Jon Gruden’s not buying that. “I don’t give a damn what we are (recordwise),” Gruden said in a press conference this week. ” Donovan McNabb is questionable. They’re talking about him having surgery. Michael Vick has injuries and he’s questionable. No – if the guy’s able to play, you play. We’ve got to win games.”
“I’ve got a lot of concern with this game. But, Jiminy Christmas, there aren’t a lot of guys in our locker room who feel good right now. That’s just the way it is.”
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Bucs are averaging 141.8 rushing yards a game, 4th in the NFL. The Jets give up 129.5 rushing yards a game, 28th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bucs have the NFL’s top ranked run defense, allowing a ridiculous 61.5 yards a game. It doesn’t matter if Cadillac Williams is running the ball, if Michael Pittman is running the ball, or if Gruden goes out there and runs the ball himself, the Bucs are going to control the clock and the game.
BUCS 24, JETS 13
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Bucs Win- The train keeps rollin. A win puts the Bucs at 5-0, with a great chance of being 6-0 heading into their bye week thanks to a home game with the Dolphins next week.
Bucs Lose- A loss to this mess of a Jets team would be pretty shocking for the Bucs. The good news is they’d still be 4-1, and Gruden will make sure they get 5-1 next week.
Jets Win- Vinny Vidi Vici indeed. Jets get a big win with 2 road games on deck, and you hear “Vinny and the Jets, Vinny and the Jets!!” ad nauseum for the next week.
Jets Lose- A loss puts the Jets at 1-4, and back to back roadies at Buffalo and Atlanta means that’s probably going to be 1-6 headed into the bye week. See you in 06.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-0) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-3)
4:05 PM Eastern, CBS, Colts favored by 14 1/2
The Storyline
Alex Smith makes his first NFL start. BYU doesn’t have any Dwight Freeneys on their defense do they?
KEY QUESTIONS
Are the Niners doing the right thing starting Alex Smith?
That’s an age old question. Is it better for a young QB to sit and learn, or is it better for them to play right away? The truth is, if the guy is going to be good, it doesn’t matter when you play him, his talent will eventually come through. Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, David Carr, Ryan Leaf, Troy Aikman, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Joey Harrington, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Ramsey, Jake Plummer, Kerry Collins, all these guys saw significant action in their rookie years, and some of them turned out to be good, and some of them turned out to suck. I think the main determining factor in which way a guy’s career goes is, how is the team around him? Rookies that get drafted by good teams play better because the players around them make them look a lot better. A good team can play a rookie QB and not ruin him. A bad team like the Niners? Better to let Tim Rattay take the beating until the team gets a little better.
Is Alex Smith the only rookie being thrown into the fire by the Niners this week?
No. The Niners are also starting undrafted rookie free agent Bruce Thornton at corner. Against the Colts. Good luck with that. Oh and they traded starting LB Jamie Winborn to Jacksonville this week too. Fire sales aren’t just for baseball anymore.
Can the Colts go undefeated this season?
Absolutely not. They could very well be 7-0 heading into their bye week. But after the bye week, check out this schedule: at New England, at Cincinnati, home against Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville, home against San Diego, at Seattle. They have 6 very difficult games out of their last nine. Even splitting those games is a tough task.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Peyton Manning faces the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Niners could have Joe Montana’s head sewn on to Steve Young’s torso playing QB and they’d still have no chance. But they don’t. They have a guy making his first start facing a defense that is second in the league in sacks. The only thing that the Niners have going for them is that 4 of the Colts’ last 5 losses have been on grass. But that’s not going to be enough.
COLTS 30, NINERS 10
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Colts Win- 5-0 and atop the AFC, the Colts need to squirrel away as many victories as they can get early in the season, because they are going to have to earn every one of them late in the season.
Colts Lose- If the Colts lose this game, then I apologize for anything bad I ever wrote about Alex Smith, and will mail him a gift certificate for one free ball licking.
Niners Win- Alex Smith gets his balls licked, by me.
Niners Lose- No ball licking at all.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-2) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-3)
4:15 PM Eastern, FOX, Panthers favored by 2 ½
The Storyline- The Cardinals turned to young QB Josh McCown last week, and he led them to their first victory of the season. Now the Cards return home for a battle of two teams that have not met expectations this year, but who both can still salvage their season.
KEY QUESTIONS
How’s the Cardinals secondary look headed into this game?
Not so good. The Cards may be missing their top 3 corners. Antrel Rolle is out for the year, and David Macklin and Raymond Walls are questionable. That’s a bad situation against a dangerous Panthers passing game.
Is Josh McCown the guy at QB now?
Yes, definitely. Kurt Warner didn’t play bad, but Kurt Warner didn’t win. And if a veteran QB doesn’t win, there’s no reason to play him if you have a younger guy available. I think at this point, Kurt Warner is a very high quality backup, and there’s no shame in that. You can make a very good living as a quality #2 QB in the NFL. The more he insists on being a starter, the more he hurts his career.
The Panthers haven’t played up to potential. Explain.
The Panthers have underachieved because their bread is buttered with their pass rush, and so far that pass rush has been non-exsistent. The defensive line, led by DE Julius Peppers, is supposed to be the best in the league. The team is 31st in the NFL with 4 sacks. That’s unacceptable. The Cards are tied for 3rd worst in the league with 14 sacks allowed though, so maybe there will be a breakthrough this week.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Cardinals are back home, they’re a much more competitive team at Sun Devil Stadium than they are on the road. They are 5-4 at home in Dennis Green’s tenure, versus 2-9 everywhere else. That said, the Panthers laid a 35-10 ass whoopin on the Cardinals in Charlotte last year. The Cardinals were unable to run the ball, gaining only 85 yards on the ground. The Panthers run defense has been staunch this year too, and have given up only 85 yards a game on average.
The Cards are going to have to gunsling with the Panthers to win this game. They have the 3rd ranked passing offense in the NFL, so they can do it. Both of the Panthers starting corners, Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas are listed as questionable, so that’s another plus. But to win, at some point they are going to have to establish a running game, and they’ve been unable to do that this year. This is going to be an exciting, high scoring game, and I don’t like picking against the Cards at home, but I feel like I’ve got to.
PANTHERS 34, CARDINALS 30
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Panthers Win- Every week is a struggle for this team, but a win puts them at 3-2, in the playoff hunt, and it’s a hell of a lot better than the 1-7 start they had last year.They’ve got another tough road game at Detroit next week.
Panthers Lose- A loss sets up a win or else situation at Ford Field next week.
Cards Win- It’s a long climb back from 0-3, but a win means the Cards are 2/3 of the way there. They have a bye week to prepare for the Titans, who come to the Valley in Week Seven.
Cards Lose- This season was not supposed to start 1-4. The Cards will use the bye week as a chance to restart their season, but games still remaining against Seattle, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Jacksonville, a winning season doesn’t look like a very reachable goal for this team.
It’s Been a Topsy Turvy Year for Delhomme and the Panthers
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-0) AT DENVER BRONCOS (3-1)
The Storyline
Two of the league’s old guard have played well above expectations this year. The Redskins are unbeaten, but it will take a win at Denver to silence all the doubters.
KEY QUESTIONS
This matchup reminds me of that Super Bowl where Timmy Smith ran for over 200 yards. What’s he up to these days?
He was arrested for cocaine possession last week. I would say things are going well for him. I mean he can afford to buy cocaine, obviously. I don’t think I could afford that.
Wellity, Wellity, Wellity, Clinton Portis is returning to Denver in this game, isn’t he?
Yes he is, so expect him to be revved up for this one. He’s still close friends with a lot of his ex teammates. Portis talked to the Baltimore Sun about a recent phone conversation he had with Broncos WR Rod Smith, saying, “”I think Rod’s still got a concussion from two weeks ago. … He called me, and he was talking to me as if we were married. I realized then that I’m the wrong one. He called me late night, like, ‘What’s up? What are you doing?’ I was like, ‘Hey, Rod. This is Clinton.'” Portis joked a couple weeks ago that he would “knock out” Smith for leaving the Monday Night game against the Chiefs with a concussion.
What exactly is the Broncos situation at running back?
This is a big question for fantasy players. I think the official answer is “three headed monster”. Mike Anderson gets the majority of the carries, but Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne both see significant action as well. It’s a good situation for the Broncos, because having 3 backs they have faith in has allowed them to wear down opposing defenses, while keeping their backs fresh.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Broncos are going to have a hard time sticking with their winning formula this week. They love to run the ball, but the Redskins have the league’s 5th ranked run defense, and have earned that ranking against some pretty good running backs (Thomas and Julius Jones, Shaun Alexander). They can stop the Broncos ground game.
One thing the Redskins defense hasn’t been able to do is pressure the quarterback. They have only 4 sacks on the season, so Jake Plummer is going to have time to throw, which could translate into points. The Broncos, meanwhile, aren’t too shabby against the run themselves. They rank 4th in the league in run defense, ahead of the Redskins. That means this game comes down to Jake Plummer against Mark Brunell. Brunell’s been resurgent this year, and CB Champ Bailey is questionable for this game. But, the Redskins have lost 6 in a row to AFC teams, the Broncos have won 8 out of their last 10 at home, and Washington hasn’t beaten an AFC team on the road since a win at Tennessee in 2002. Give the Skins their first loss this week.
BRONCOS 23, REDSKINS 13
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Redskins Win- If the Skins win this game, they are most definitely for real. If not, well then they’ve got another very difficult road game at Arrowhead next week.
Redskins Lose- Hey 3-1 is still not too bad. I think the Redskins attitude is, that if they can somehow split these 2 death games at Denver and KC, they’re golden. This game at Mile High will help them prepare for next week’s trip to KC.
Broncos Win- Once again the Broncos hold serve at home, and are off to a great 4-1 start. Mile High is going to be 2 Miles High when the Patriots come to town next week.
Broncos Lose- This is a game the Broncos should win. A loss in a game you should win, usually comes back to haunt you at the end of the year when you’re trying to get into the playoffs.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-1) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2)
4:15 PM Eastern, FOX, Eagles favored by 3
The Storyline
The NFC East is the best division in football this year, so any division matchup here is a good one. The Cowboys are in last place at 2-2, but a win here will make a huge statement that they are in the division race.
KEY QUESTIONS
ESPN’s Michael Irvin said the Cowboys have “a bunch of #2 wide receivers”. How’d they take to that news?
One of those receivers, Keyshawn Johnson, has his own show on Sirius Radio, and had this to say in response to the Original Playmaker, “I know that when my career is over, wherever he’s ranked, he’ll be under me.” Johnson claimed that if he played with Irvin’s Cowboy teams, he would have doubled Irvin’s numbers. Johnson also said that as an analyst, Irvin “doesn’t study” today’s game like Phil Simms does.
Let the record show that there is no opium-free rating system that would ever rank Keyshawn anywhere near Irvin in anything but talking smack.
Since we’re on the topic of wideouts with radio shows, what did TO say on his this week?
“All the commentaries and all the analysts, they’re saying this and that about me,” he said. “It gives everybody the perception across the country that I’m a negative person, that I’m a disruptive teammate. It doesn’t bother me. Whatever they say they can say. Because the only people that really matter to me is my family. I’m the one who’s having the last laugh. Where are all these T.O. bashers?”
My rebuttal- You behaved yourself for one month, and have put up good numbers against three of the worst defenses in the league. You’ve got a long way to go before you’re in gloating territory. My calendar has November 7th circled as the day your headphones go back on and you and McNabb are strangling each other again. That’s the day you wrap up a 3 game stretch against San Diego, Denver, and Washington. Mkay?
What’s the difference between a sports hernia and a regular hernia?
People who get sports hernias make a lot more money than people who get regular hernias.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Eagles have the top passing offense in the league, and have put up a ridiculous 362 yards a game through the air. The Cowboys pass defense has been shaky (cough SANTANA MOSS cough MONDAY NIGHT cough), so right there you have a big problem for Dallas. Dallas is going to have to do everything they can to keep that offense off the field, and they’ll attempt that by pounding the ball with Julius Jones. Jones hasn’t been nearly as good as he was at the end of 04 though. The Cowboys rank only near the middle of the pack in rushing offense, but that’s also where the Eagles rank in rushing defense. So they could have some success doing that.
The Cowboys need Jones to be the star of the game if they are going to win. When these teams last met, Jones mustered only 80 yards on 25 carries. So that’s not a good sign. The good news is the Eagles have a defensive injury report a mile long right now, including safety Brian Dawkins and LB Jeremiah Trotter listed as questionable, and DT Darwin Walker listed as doubtful. Last year TE Jason Witten had 2 big games for the Boys against Philly, and if Trotter and Dawkins are out, he’s going to run wild again. When you get down to it though, this game hinges entirely on how Julius Jones runs, and since he hasn’t run all that well this year, I’ve got to go with the Eagles.
EAGLES 30, COWBOYS 24
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Eagles Win- This is not going to be an easy win for the Eagles. Save for a 42-3 blowout of San Francisco, nothing has been easy for the Eagles this year. But a win puts them at 4-1 headed into their bye week, and they’ll have time to prepare for a visit from a very dangerous San Diego team
Eagles Lose- With the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all being among the most improved teams in the league this year, all of a sudden an NFC East title is not such a sure thing. In fact, the Eagles could be in last place in the East headed into the bye week if they lose this game.
Cowboys Win- A win against Philly would mean everything to this team. They’ll be riding high when the Giants come to town for another critical game in Week Six.
Cowboys Lose- A loss ensconces the Cowboys as the bottom team on the NFC East food chain. This game is their season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-0) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-2)
8:30 PM Eastern, ESPN, Jaguars favored by 2 1/2
The Storyline
The Bengals 4-0 record is impressive, but a lot of that has been the NFL equivalent of Goldberg beating Jerry Flynn 150 times. This game is by far their toughest test of the season, and a chance for them to show a national prime time audience just how good they are.
KEY QUESTIONS
What did Jags QB Byron Leftwich have to say about the Bengals when he was a hot prospect at Marshall University?
The Dayton Daily News dredged up this quote Leftwich gave in an interview with Kirk Herbstreit in 2002 ,”I have this nightmare that Paul Tagliabue comes to the podium and says, ‘With the first pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select …”’. Leftwich denies ever saying that.
Has Jags RB Fred Taylor lost a step?
Taylor is coming off of knee surgery and averaged only 3.3 yards a carry this year. However, he prefers to shift blame to his offensive line, “”You run to the situation. You can only take what’s there and there hasn’t been much there.” Atta Boy, Leon, I mean Fred.
What do Bengals coach Marvin Lewis and Jags coch Jack Del Rio have in common?
They are both coaches of two up and coming teams, and both were on Brian Billick’s staff when the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl following the 2000 season.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Bengals offense is so tough to stop, because it’s so balanced. They rank in the top 10 in the league in both rushing and passing offense, and can rely on one or the other to beat you. Jacksonville has the reputation of being a tough defense, but would you believe that they currently rank 29th in the league against the run? Oh, it’s true. They do rank 2nd against the pass though, so the Bengals are going to try and control the game with their running back tandem of Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry.
Would you believe that the Jags are a much better team on the road than at home? Well, that’s also true. In fact, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games against conference foes at Alltel Stadium, including a 20-7 stinker against the Broncos last week. Meanwhile, the Bengals have won 5 of their last 6 away from home, so home field advantage is NOT an issue here. I think the Bengals win this one and remain unbeaten.
BENGALS 17, JAGUARS 10
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Bengals Win- A win on national TV on the road validates this team in a lot of people’s eyes. They have another tough road game in Week Six, but at 5-0 they are feeling no pain.
Bengals Lose- Laying an egg in this one would be a big blow to this young team’s confidence. They have two key division games in the next four weeks (vs Pittsburgh and at Baltimore), that will tell the tale of whether they are contenders or pretenders.
Jaguars Win- Just like the Bengals, the Jags see this game as a coming out party. A win would give them needed confidence as they head into Heinz Field next week.
Jaguars Lose- The Jags need this one. Their next 2 games are at Pittsburgh and at St. Louis, so they could be 2-5 real easily if they don’t pull this one out.
PIMPS UP HOS DOWN
That’s it till Monday. Check out Monday Morning Pancakes for a full rundown of Sunday’s action, and a preview of MNF.
Jay correctly picks the White Sox over the Red Sox, then doesn’t pick anyone for Yankees vs. Angels. So I guess that means the White Sox are AL Champs by forfeit. YEEHAH!
Slayer is the Lee Corso to my Irv Cross.
Patrick cuts me no slack for picking the Patriots last week.
Tierney has an interview with SF Giants prospect Brian Wilson.
That’s a wrap boy-os! See you on Monday.
