LEADING OFF
Artist’s Rendering of Fred Smoot’s Orgy Boat
Wow do the Vikings know how to party or what? More on that later. Without further introduction, let’s get straight to the good stuff, and take a look at WEEK SIX!
ATLANTA FALCONS (3-2) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3), at San Antonio TX
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Falcons favored by 5½
The Storyline
The Saints are hoping to make it 2 for 2 in their temporary home of the Alamodome. They face a Falcons team that is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Patriots, and who need this game to avoid falling into a possible tie for last place in the NFC South.
Key Questions
Michael Vick: Go or No Go?
This will most likely be a gameday decision, just like last week. Vick has a sprained MCL, and his progress with the injury is a day to day issue. Matt Schaub played very well in Vick’s absence last week, and the Falcons don’t want to risk losing Vick for the season like in 2003. My guess is that Jim Mora will err on the side of caution, and only start Vick if he is at or near 100%. Vick says he expects to play, but we’ll wait and see on that.
What’s up with Atlanta’s defense?
Nothing good. The Falcons rank 24th in the league against the run, and 20th against the pass. What has been most surprising is their weakness against the run. Last year, the Falcons ranked 9th in the league in that category. The Falcons lost starting MLB Ed Hartwell for the season with an Achilles injury last week, so things could go from bad to worse in a hurry.
How will the loss of RB Deuce McAllister change the Saints’ offense?
The Saints don’t plan for it to change anything. Coach Jim Haslett had an interesting way of communicating this to his team. He called on QB Aaron Brooks to stand up in front of the team, then asked him, “Let me ask you a question, Aaron. How’d you get your job?” Haslett then answered his own question, “A guy got hurt. … This is an opportunity for somebody to step up.” The guys who have that opportunity are Aaron Stecker and Antowain Smith. Stecker did a nice job filling in when Deuce missed a game vs. St. Louis last year, carrying 18 times for 106 yards. Smith has twice been a 1000 yard rusher.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Saints have won 3 out of their last 4 against the Falcons. Included in these is a 26-13 win in Week 16 last year, when Schaub started in place of Vick. In that game, Schaub was pretty awful. He completed 17 of 41 for 188 yards and 2 interceptions. The Saints also rolled up 160 yards rushing in that game, a harbinger of the woes that Atlanta’s defense has experienced this year.
Atlanta has lost 11 of 19 away from home since 2003, and it may surprise you to learn that in the last 10 regular season games these teams have played overall, the Saints actually have a better record (6-4) than the Falcons do (5-5). I think the Saints are going to draw a lot of energy from their supportive San Antonio fans, and if they can avoid crucial mistakes, they are going to win this game. With the Saints, that’s a very big if, but I still like them in this matchup.
SAINTS 23, FALCONS 20
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Falcons Win- A win in this game sets the Falcons up nicely for a very winnable game at home against the Jets next week. They could very easily be 5-2 headed into their bye week, and well on their way to a playoff berth.
Falcons Lose- The Falcons really have not played all that well since breaking out to a 9-2 start last year. A loss here puts them at 3-3 and in a tie for last place in their division. Keep in mind, this is a franchise that has NEVER had back to back winning seasons in its 39 years of existence. The Falcons are overrated. There, I said it.
Saints Win- Every game the Saints win in San Antonio improves the chances of them moving there permanently after this season. This year has been all about resiliency for the Saints, and nothing would illustrate that more than bouncing back from a 52-3 loss to get a win in front of their new fans.
Saints Lose- The Saints were a nice story, but a 2-4 start relegates them to also-ran status in 2005. They’ll head to St. Louis in Week 7 in dire need of a victory.
“HO HO HO….HA HA HA HA…Get Your Ass Back on the Field”
CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-1) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (2-3)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Bengals favored by 3
The Storyline
The Bengals are no longer unbeaten, but even in a 23-20 defeat at Jacksonville last week, they still looked pretty good. They’re for real, and they’ll look to stay on top the AFC North this week, traveling to Nashville to take on the so-so Titans.
Key Questions
How Will Carson Palmer and Norm Chow spend their Saturday night in Music City?
The former USC standout QB will probably share a nice bottle of Pinot with his old offensive coordinator, reminiscing over the old times in Troy, while they stare longingly into each other’s eyes.
How did the Jags stop Chad Johnson last week?
Jacksonville contained Chad by double teaming him all night long. The Vikings DB’s did something similar recently, but it was on Fred Smoot’s boat.
Is Chris Brown ever going to be a true stud running back?
He hasn’t shown it so far this year. After Travis Henry was lost to a drug suspension, the Titans expected Brown to carry the full load. He’s been able to do it at the start of games, but as the game wears on, Brown weakens. Jarrett Payton is pressing hard to get a bigger chunk of the Titans’ carries.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Since 2003, the Bengals are 12-6 at home, but only 8-11 on the road. They are 10-3 versus the NFC, but only 10-14 against the AFC. Being that this is a conference game on the road, the Bengals are vulnerable. That said, the Titans just don’t have the defense to slow down the Bengals offense. The Bengals also have an opportunistic defense that has a knack for creating interceptions and setting the Bengals up with good field position. It will be a workmanlike win for Cincy, but a win nonetheless.
BENGALS 27, TITANS 20
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Bengals Win- The Bengals have to be careful not to look ahead to their week seven AFC North showdown with the Steelers. If they get it done on the road this week, they’ll head into that game with a 5-1 mark, and on top of the division.
Bengals Lose- Once again the Bengals get tripped up on the road. A 2 game losing streak is baggage they don’t want to be carrying into their home game against the Steelers.
Titans Win- It’s supposed to be a down year for the Titans, but they’ve played hard and a win here would put them at 3-3, and would provide a big confidence boost heading into Tempe next week.
Titans Lose- The Titans have not been able to string back to back wins together since 2003. A loss here continues that trend.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-2) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-1)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, No line currently
The Storyline
This is a matchup of two teams coming off of huge prime time wins. The Jags handed the Bengals their first loss of the season last Sunday Night, and the Steelers went into Quaalude Stadium on Monday Night and knocked off the red hot Chargers.
Key Questions
Will Big Ben be able to play on Sunday?
As of today, he’s doubtful. Roethlisberger suffered a hyperextended knee against the Chargers. The injury looked really gruesome at first, but thankfully for the Steelers, there was no ligament damage. Don’t count him out for this game though, Ben told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, “As a quarterback, you’re a leader, and the big thing is, I want to show leadership with these guys and know they can always count on me to be there for them,” said Roethlisberger. “So, I’m going to do whatever it takes, if that’s playing through pain, I’m going to do it just to know they can count on me to be there for them.”
If he can’t go, it’s likely Charlie Batch will start, since Tommy Maddox is also banged up (clipboard carrying is a dangerous job). WR Hines Ward is also on injury watch with a hamstring problem. Injuries could play a significant role in the outcome of this game.
Is the Bus back in service?
It would seem so. Jerome Bettis carried 17 times for 54 yards and a TD last week, and once again has defied those who think he has no more miles left in him. He felt his oats after that game, and lashed out in a post game interview, “I was frustrated the last five weeks. It wasn’t that they were giving me a hard time. Maybe they figured, ‘Well, maybe he’s done?’ It’s been like that the last five years. Every year, I feel I have to prove myself. I get fed up about it. But I’m a nice guy. I’m a good guy. But I reached my boiling point the last couple of weeks.”
What’s been a major weakness in the Jags’ offense?
Dropped passes. The juggling Jaguars led the league in this unofficial statistic last year, and it’s been a big problem again this year. Some say that part of the reason for that is that QB Byron Leftwich throws the ball too hard, and without touch. Coach Jack Del Rio’s not buying that though, he told the Orlando Sentinel, “What do you think we should do? Have Byron throw a few changeups? Look, we aren’t trying to strike out anyone.”
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
These teams met last year in Jacktown, and the Steelers won 17-16 on a Jeff Reed field goal. The Jaguars outgained the Steelers in that game, and pretty much outplayed them all around. The difference was that the Steelers were able to hurt the Jags with a couple of big pass plays.
Jacksonville shows up and plays hard every single week, as do the Steelers, so expect this to be a tight, hard fought game. No team that doesn’t have a Flying Elvis on the side of their helmets has come out of Heinz Field with a win since 2003. I think that will be enough to carry the Steelers through, Ben or no Ben.
STEELERS 20, JAGUARS 17
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Jaguars Win- A win in this game would mean everything to Jacksonville. Heading into their bye week, they’d be 4-2 with wins against Seattle, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Those are some impressive notches, and they’d have to be considered serious players in the AFC.
Jaguars Lose- The Jags would head into their bye week even at 3-3 despite playing a very difficult early schedule. They’ll have a week to prepare for a trip to St. Louis to play a Rams team that is in upheaval right now.
Steelers Win- Much like what the Bengals have this week, the Steelers can’t get caught looking ahead in this game. A win would set them up to take over first place if they can win in Cincinnati next week.
Steelers Lose- 2 straight losses at home, and people are going to start to talk. If the Steelers fall to 3-2, the Bengals will smell blood in the water next week, and be amped up to deliver the knockout punch in the AFC North.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-3) AT CHICAGO BEARS (1-3)
1PM Eastern, FOX, Bears favored by 3
The Storyline
You’d be hard pressed to find a more wretched matchup than this one. The Vikings were supposed Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, but they are off to a miserable start. They know how to party though. There is currently an investigation into an alleged boat party on the waters of Lake Minnetonka, arranged by CB Fred Smoot that involved, “drunkenness, nudity and visible sexual activity”. I am presuming that there were women on the boat too, because if there wasn’t, then that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms.
Oh yeah, then there’s the Bears. The Bears are off to another poor start, due to their lack of offense and propensity to give up big plays at the worst possible time. Of course, you could have said this about the Bears in like 9 out of the last 10 years, so really, that’s not news.
Key Questions
So what really happened on Fred Smoot’s party boat?
Unconfirmed reports have alleged:
– Monkey knife fights
– Onterrio Smith “Whizzenating” on the poop deck
– An interspecies marriage ceremony officiated by a monsignor in the Church of Satan
– A 2 on 2 basketball tournament won by Prince and Kirby Puckett
– Nice buffet
When all is said and done though, isn’t this type of behavior to be expected? I mean, they’re VIKINGS! That’s what Vikings do, ride around on boats, having sex, pillaging and such. What do you want from them?
What will be the long term effects of the Vikings deciding to cleanse their souls on the waters of Lake Minnetonka?
The effects could be more significant than you might think. The Vikings are still clearing hurdles to get their new stadium built, and there lots of opponents of the stadium initiative. This gives those opponents plenty of ammunition, and could give them critical mass for keeping the stadium from being built. If that happens, the Vikings are going to leave Minnesota before the end of the decade.
How about the Bears, how’re they doing?
I’ll let safety Mike Brown field this question. Brown told the Chicago Sun Times earlier this week, ”I don’t know how to put frustration into words. We’re just terrible. It’s like we suck, man. I don’t know what else to tell you, man, we can’t find a way to win ballgames. I hate to say it, but we always find a way to lose. We have to find a way to win, but we always find a way to lose. Always.”
Okay, so that’s “we suck”, and “always lose”. Got it. Bear down. Where do I send my check for my PSL?
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
Both of these teams are a total mess right now, and the clock is seriously ticking for both of their coaches and a lot of their players.
In last year’s meeting at Soldier Field, the Bears sacked Daunte Culpepper 5 times and picked him off 3 times. Both of those things have continued to be problems for Culpepper and the Vikings in 05.
The Vikings haven’t won in Chicago since 2000, and they are 1-9 on grass dating back to 2003. Minnesota hasn’t been able to generate any kind of running game, and won’t against the Bears 4th ranked run defense either. Somebody has to win this game, and it looks like it will be the Bears.
BEARS 20, VIKINGS 13
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Vikings Win- A win might alleviate the chaos around this team right now. Might, probably not. Nonetheless, they would have a chance to even their record at 3-3 at home against the Packers next week.
Vikings Lose- The Boat Trip from Hell almost certainly signals the end of Mike Tice in Minnesota, and may ultimately mean the end of the Vikings in Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to them when they return home at 1-4 and awash in bad publicity.
Bears Win- The Bears need this game, real, real bad. Bears fans forgive a lot, and turn a blind eye to lousy play a lot, but it seems like the Cleveland loss was a wake up call for everyone involved in the organization as to how bad things have really become, and had a rock bottom feel to it. A win could be the start of the healing, and give the Bears a chance to pull to .500 when the Ravens come to town in Week 7.
Bears Lose- Put Lovie Smith near the top of the soon to be ex-head coaches watch, and while you’re at it put Jerry Angelo on the ex-GM watch list too. The Bears have not improved under Smith’s watch. They were bad when he arrived, and they’ve gotten worse. They’ve lost 8 out of their last 10. Angelo inherited a 13-3 team, and has turned it into a team that couldn’t go 13-3 in the CFL. The faster this season slides into oblivion, the faster he’ll be gone too.
“It’s Like We Suck….”
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Chiefs favored by 6
The Storyline
Here we have a matchup of one team that has greatly exceeded expectations, and one that has not lived up to theirs. While the Redskins have broken out to a 3-1 start behind a rock solid defense and a surprisingly efficient offense, the Chiefs have been stuck in neutral all year, unable to get their offense untracked, and not seeing the improvement they hoped for out of their defense.
Key Questions
Why’s Lavar Arrington so unhappy?
The linebacker who was the 2nd overall pick in the 2000 draft, but has struggled with injuries in recent years isn’t getting the playing time he wants, or the practice time he wants. He feels that the Redskins have been burying him for some reason, including fostering a notion that he isn’t smart enough to play in defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ scheme. Arrington is very offended by that, and the situation between him and the Redskins’ coaching staff has boiled over.
Why has Tony Gonzalez been virtually invisible this year?
Gonzalez has had to stay in and block a lot more than the Chiefs would like this year. The main reason for that has been the absence of tackle Willie Roaf due to a hamstring injury. The Chiefs need to get Roaf healthy, because it will free up Gonzo to do what he does best, catch the football.
It was a no-brainer that the biggest impact by a new wideout would be made by a guy named Moss right?
Well yes and no. The surprise has been that the biggest impact has been made by Santana Moss, and not Randy Moss. Santana gives the Redskins offense a big play threat that it did not have last year. He stretches the field, and it’s beneficial to the entire offense. He’s a big reason why the Skins rank 6th in the league in rushing offense. Moss has 458 receiving yards through 4 games, and seemingly is well on his way to the second 1000 yard season of his career.
HERES YOUR FORECAST
The Redskins aren’t the unbalanced team with no offense that everyone thought they were. They proved in last week’s 21-19 loss in Denver that they can give a tough opponent all they can handle, even on the road.
What they didn’t prove is that they can break through and win a game like that on the road, and that’s a huge leap to make. Washington is 2-7 against the AFC since 2003, and 6-12 on the road. Arrowhead Stadium is not a good place for a weak road team to steal a win, the Chiefs are 13-5 there in the last 3 seasons. This is going to be a tight game, but I think the Chiefs pull it out.
CHIEFS 28, REDSKINS 27
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Redskins Win- A win in KC would cement the Redskins as a contender in the NFC. Their 4-1 record will turn into 5-1 after a home game versus SF next week.
Redskins Lose- Back to back road games at Denver and KC is a tough stretch for any team. The 3-2 Redskins will welcome the breather at home against the Niners, which would still leave them in good shape heading into New Jersey in Week 8 for a showdown with the Giants.
Chiefs Win- The Chiefs badly need this game. They have to prove that last year’s 7-9 record was an aberration, and a 2-3 start isn’t the way to do it. 4 out of their next 5 are on the road, so they need this one bad. A win puts them at 3-2 heading into Miami next week.
Chiefs Lose- A loss here is a torpedo the Chiefs’ hopes for 2005. The Chiefs get most of their wins at home. Their remaining home schedule after this week consists of Oakland, New England, Denver, San Diego, and Cincinnati, none of which are going to be easy wins. You’d be hard pressed to find where the 8 more wins they would need to make the playoffs are going to come from.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-2) AT DETROIT LIONS (2-2)
1PM Eastern, FOX, Lions favored by 1
The Storyline
Two teams with playoff aspirations square off in a game both teams need to have. The Lions sat back and watched the Ravens melt down last week, and picked up a win. The Panthers have won 2 in a row, and hope to have a share of the lead in the NFC South after the Week Six dust settles.
Key Questions
Is there an interesting subplot to this game?
Yes, there is. In the 2002 draft, the Panthers drafted second, the Lions drafted third. The Panthers needed a QB, but passed on Joey Harrington, and drafted DE Julius Peppers instead. Harrington fell to the Lions at #3.
Did the Panthers make the right choice in 2002?
Lions WR Roy Williams answered that question in a recent SI interview, when he said the Lions receivers don’t have “any trust or confidence in the quarterback”. Williams didn’t stop there, he went on to slam RB Kevin Jones saying, “It’s one thing to tell a guy to pick up his play, but I don’t want somebody in my face telling me how to play my position. He runs the ball, and I catch the ball, and we don’t have to be tight because we don’t hang out anyway.”
Who’s going to carry the ball for the Panthers?
You might see DeShaun Foster getting the bulk of the Panthers’ carries this week. Stephen Davis is listed as questionable with a knee injury. He has practiced, but it hasn’t been decided whether or not he will play this week. If he does play, expect him to share a good portion of the workload with Foster. Whoever plays, the Panthers need to improve their running game. They average only 3.3 yards a carry, tied for 30th in the league.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Lions are a much better team at home than they are on the road (10-8 since 03 at home vs. 3-15 on the road), so the venue of this game makes it a tough call. The Panthers are a team that plays pretty much the same wherever the game is though, so I’m not going to make the call based on the fact the game is at Ford Field.
Carolina is just better than the Lions in every phase of the game, especially on offense. The Panthers have not been held to under 20 points by anybody this year, and the Lions anemic passing attack is going to have a hard time matching that. Roy Williams is questionable with a quad injury, Charles Rogers is out on a drug suspension, so that means Harrington’s corps of receivers is depleted. Carolina gets the win here.
PANTHERS 23, LIONS 16
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Panthers Win- A 4-2 start would mean the Panthers can enjoy their bye week. Minnesota comes to Charlotte in Week 8, so there’s a great chance the Panthers could get 5-2 if they win this week.
Panthers Lose- This game is the difference between whether the Panthers can say they are off to a good start, or another disappointing start. A loss means the Panthers are still treading water, which they’ve been doing for most of this season.
Lions Win- Most likely, there is only going to be one team in the NFC North that ends the season with a winning record, so the Lions have to like their chances if they can get to 3-2. They’ve got two more very winnable games coming up (at Cleveland, and home against Chicago), so they could put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division beginning with a win this week.
Lions Lose- A loss means a blown opportunity to establish themselves as the top team in the division. A game in Cleveland next week is no slam dunk either, being that the Lions are 1-12 on grass in the last 3 seasons. Jeff Garcia could be back from a broken ankle next week, and that plus a loss here equals quarterback controversy in Detroit.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-3)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Ravens favored by 5 ½
The Storyline
You’d be hard pressed to find a team in a bigger mess right now than the Ravens. Oh, the Vikings, right. OK, well, the Ravens are still a mess right now. Last week’s 35-17 loss to Detroit was a disgrace to the organization, and the score was at the bottom of the list why. The team completely lost any sense of self control, was flagged for over 20 penalties, had 2 players ejected, and physically threatened the referee.
Meanwhile, the Browns have played scrappy football all year under Romeo Crennel, and are 2-2 and coming off a thrilling come from behind win against the Bears. This game is very much a contest that could change the pecking order in the AFC North.
Key Questions
Is Brian Billick’s job in jeopardy?
Yes. What happened in Detroit smacks of “losing control of the team”, and that’s a death sentence for any coach in pro sports. Billick commented on his status in a press conference this week, saying, “I don’t know when I’ve ever not been on the hot seat in the NFL. I don’t have the time quite frankly to focus on me or my situation.”
Is this really the first time Trent Dilfer’s faced the Ravens since quarterbacking them to their only Super Bowl win?
Hard as it is to believe, 4 ½ years later, Dilfer finally gets his chance to prove Billick and the Ravens wrong for kicking him to the curb days after he helped the Ravens to the Lombardi Trophy in 2001. The Ravens thought Elvis Grbac would be a big upgrade for them at QB in 2001. That didn’t work out so good.
A
nybody else switch sides recently in this incestuous rivalry?
Browns’ CB Gary Baxter was a longtime Raven. He has been the anchor of the Cleveland secondary this year, and will be anxious to prove his worth against his old team.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Ravens have had trouble running the ball this year, and that’s been a huge reason why they’ve struggled like they have. Don’t expect them to break out of it this week either. Jamal Lewis did not rush for over 100 yards in either of the meetings between these teams last year.
This game won’t be pretty. Both teams will probably struggle to run the ball, as they have all year, meaning you’ll see a lot of bad passes thrown by both teams.
In the end, I have to take the Ravens though. They are 14-4 at home since 03, and the Browns are 5-13 on the road in that same timespan. The Ravens should be on their best behavior this week after last week’s debacle, and play a little more disciplined ball than they have this year. The Ravens will get a win this week.
RAVENS 17, BROWNS 13
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Browns Win- Beating death rival Baltimore and improving to 3-2 would touch off hysteria in Cleveland. The Browns have Detroit at home in Week 7, and a great opportunity to get to 4-2.
Browns Lose- A loss would deflate the good vibes coming from this team a bit, but they’d have a chance to come back strong with a win next week.
Ravens Win- It will take a lot more than one win to put this team on the right track, but it’s a start. 3 out of the next 4 games are on the road, so winning this one is key.
Ravens Win- The Code Red atmosphere around this team gets downgraded for one week. They’re only one insane on field tirade away from everything starting up again though.
Ravens Lose- Things are going to get very ugly on this team if they lose this week and go to 1-4. Not only can you flush the season down the toilet, but bickering and sniping will set in, and with it very clear that the core group that won in 2000 aren’t going to win again, you can be sure you’ll see a very different Ravens team in 2006.
The Ravens Need to Start Pointing the Thumb
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-2) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-1)
1 PM Eastern, CBS, Bucs favored by 4 ½
The Storyline
It’s not Florida-Florida St., or Miami-Florida St., or Miami-Florida, but this game between 2 of the NFL’s Florida franchises should be a good one. Both teams are off to starts that have them thinking playoffs, and it’s a showdown between two former college teammates that have made big impacts in their rookie seasons, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams.
Key Questions
Is Cadillac going to play?
This is turning into a weekly drama with the Bucs. He’s listed as questionable, but the early returns from practices this week is that at this point it looks like he will play. The Bucs have been a much, much better team when his healthy than when he isn’t so the outcome of this game may hinge on how Cadillac’s feeling on Sunday.
Ricky Williams has paid his debt to NFL society, what role will he play?
Dolphins coach Nick Saban has named Williams and Ronnie Brown “co-starters”. Saban’s done a good job with the Dolphins this year, but that’s pretty gay. I’m not sure what that means, Brown’s not sure what that means, or Ricky, or probably even Saban himself. The plan is to use a lot of formations that have both Brown and Williams on the field at the same time. The problem with that is you’re using one guy as a decoy, and he’s not doing much of anything else on the field, so you’re basically playing with 10 guys. We’ll see if this arrangement works out or not.
Who blamed themselves for the Bucs recent offensive struggles this week?
QB Brian Griese stood up in a team meeting and did a mea culpa. Griese’s been adequate this year, but there’s a reason why he’s playing for his 3rd team in 4 seasons. He has thrown more INT’s than TD’s this year, and he always has to look over his shoulder at Chris Simms. If the Bucs begin to struggle a bit after their 4-0 start, you’ll start to hear rumblings of a quarterback change.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Bucs are 4-1, but if you look at the teams they’ve beat, the resume isn’t that impressive. In fact, the teams on their schedule thus far this year have a combined record of 8-15, and not a single one of them has a winning record.
Both of these teams have excellent defenses, and those units will dominate the game. The team that is able to bust one big play to tilt the contest in its favor will win. I think the Dolphins have more weapons on offense with which to do that.
All this said, Miami is 1-9 in its last 10 road games. Every single indicator seems to point to the Dolphins winning this game, except for this one. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they break that trend this week.
DOLPHINS 17, BUCS 16
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Dolphins Win- The Dolphins would like nothing more than to officially put last year’s disaster behind them, and a 3-2 start punctuated by a win in Tampa would do that nicely.
Dolphins Lose- If the Dolphins lose this game, it’ll be because it’s a road game, and they just don’t know how to win those. They’ll return to Miami next week for a must win game against KC.
Bucs Win- A 5-1 start is beyond what anybody would have predicted for this team. They’ll get a much needed bye week to rest Cadillac Williams, then travel to SF in Week Eight.
Bucs Lose- The bye week couldn’t come at a better time for the Bucs. They would rather not be dragging a 2 game losing streak into their week off, but they’ll take the 4-2 record they have started the season with.
NY GIANTS (3-1) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (3-2)
1 PM Eastern, FOX, Cowboys favored by 3 ½
The Storyline
The NFC East was supposed to be one of the weakest divisions in the league this year, but it’s been one of the best. These two teams are a big reason why. Bill Parcells faces his protégé Tom Coughlin, and there will be man on man manlove.
Key Questions
What are the chances Julius Jones won’t play?
Somewhere around 50-50. He suffered a sprained ankle against the Eagles last week, and is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, the Problem Solver, Tyson Thompson, will get the nod. He rushed 20 times for 75 yards in last week’s game.
The Giants’ defense has been terrible this year, what reason is being given?
Defensive coordinator Tim Lewis attributes the Giants ranking of 31st in the league against the pass to the fact that Giants have been playing with big leads most of the year, meaning the Giants have had to play a lot of prevent defense, which yields a lot of passing yards. Riiiiiiiight.
When’s the last time a Giants vs. Cowboys game meant this much in the grand scheme of the NFL season?
It’s been a loooooong time. The last time both of these teams finished with winning records in the same season was 1994. Ahhh 1994, just thinking about it makes me drunk.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
If you would have told me before the season that the Dallas Cowboys, led by, Drew Bledsoe, Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson would have the most electrifying offense in the NFL, I would have kicked you in the nuts and sent you back to 1996 where you came from. But here we are. The Cowboys offense vs. the Giants defense brings to mind a hot knife vs. butter. The Cowboys roll.
COWBOYS 34, GIANTS 23
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Giants Win- Every NFC East game is a showdown, and winning this one would be huge for the Giants. They make it 3 in a row over the Cowboys, and return home to face the Broncos next week.
Giants Lose- Defensive problems finally do the Giants in, and they fail their first test vs. a division rival this season
Cowboys Win- The Cowboys haven’t looked like Bill Parcells’ Giants teams, but they’ve looked a lot like his Patriot teams, and that’s not so bad either. They bring a 4-2 record to Seattle, to face a team that remembers an embarrassing come from ahead loss on Monday Night last year.
Cowboys Lose- Two losses in two home games against division rivals supersedes any good feeling the win over the Eagles gives this team. A 3-3 record means they are inconsistent, nothing more, nothing less.
NY JETS (2-3) AT BUFFALO BILLS (2-3)
4:15 PM Eastern, CBS, Bills favored by 3
The Storyline
Both of these struggling teams turned to new quarterbacks last week, and both saved their seasons with wins. One of them will take the next step, and get back to .500 this week.
Key Questions
It’s a slam dunk that Kelly Holcomb is starting again this week right?
Well, he is starting, but for some reason, coach Mike Mullarkey held off on naming him the starter until Friday morning. The fact that it was even an issue can only be described as weird. It’s obvious that JP Losman is not ready, all parties involved would be much better off if Mullarkey just named Holcomb is starter for the remainder of the season.
The Jets spent a second round pick this year on a kicker, Mike Nugent, how’s that working out?
Super. Nugent’s missed 3 out of his 7 field goal attempts this year, and there’s already people yelling for his feet to be cut off.
Will the Jets’ offense continue to awaken from its coma this week, now that the QB situation is apparently settled?
The passing game might be better, but the running game has been awful all year, and there’s no indication that things will get better. Curtis Martin is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. That means he would be better off finding an open space to hold his arms out and fall down then actually trying to advance the ball. That’s not good.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
The Jets can’t run, and don’t stop the run very well either. They’ve also won only 6 out of their last 18 road games, so they’ve got that going for them too. Vinny’s going to have to win this game with his arm, and against the Bills #1 ranked pass defense, that’s not going to happen.
Bills 16, Jets 10
Vinny and the Jets! Vinny and the Jets!
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-2) AT DENVER BRONCOS (4-1)
4:15 PM Eastern, CBS, Broncos favored by 3
The Storyline
For my money, this is the Game of the Week. Tom Brady made the world his bitch last week in his mentally unhinged performance against the Falcons, leading New England to a victory in the Georgia Dome while all the wonks were busy eulogizing the Patriots. Denver has been rock solid this year, and can make a huge statement regarding their place in the AFC by beating the Pats this week.
Key Questions
Was there a very impressive milestone that got virtually no press last week?
Yes. Patriots RB Corey Dillon went over 10,000 rushing yards for his career.
Is Champ Bailey going to play on Sunday?
He’s going to try really hard to play on Sunday. He practiced on Wednesday, but he has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and is questionable for this week’s game. His presence in the secondary would make a huge difference against a Patriots team that has relied heavily on the pass this year.
How about Richard Seymour?
Seymour didn’t play last week, and he may not play again this week. Having Seymour back would be a huge help for the Patriots. The Broncos are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and the Patriots sure could use their All Pro defensive tackle in this game.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
In the last 3 seasons, the Patriots have lost a grand total of 6 games. 5 of those have been on the road, and 3 of them have come in their last 10 regular season games. In that same time, the Broncos are 15-4 at home, which is better than the Pats’ 14-5 road mark. So the Broncos CAN win this game.
The question is will they? They’re going to outrush the Patriots in this game, and they’ll most likely do it by a large amount. So it’s going to be up to Tom Brady to win this game for the Patriots. He showed last week that he can do that, and I’m not going to pick against him. This should be a great football game, and I think the Patriots will win.
PATRIOTS 27, BRONCOS 24
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Patriots Win- With back to back road wins in two of the most difficult places in the league to win, the Pats have shown what back to back champions are made of. Never has a team deserved a bye week more, and at 4-2, they’ll enjoy it.
Pats Lose- There’s no shame in losing to the Broncos at Mile High. The Pats are 3-3, but it’s been against a murderous schedule, and they’ll have a week off to prepare for a Sunday Night
home game against the Bills in Week 8.
Broncos Win- The Broncos are consistently good every year. That coupled with the fact that they are consistently non-factors makes people forget about them. With a 5-1 record, and a win over the defending champs, all of a sudden they’re very much at the top of the list of Super Bowl contenders.
Broncos Lose- Things won’t get any easier for the 4-2 Broncos in Week 7. They have to travel to New York to take on the Giants and their high powered offense.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-3) AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3)
4:15 PM Eastern, CBS, Chargers favored by 2
The Storyline
The Chargers have had some huge wins this year, but 2-3 is 2-3, and it’s not good. They have to have a win this week, and they’ll have to get it on the road against their archrivals.
Key Questions
Are the Raiders getting all they can out of Randy Moss?
The Raiders have had all kinds of problems scoring in the red zone this year. You would think that with a 500 pound running back, that wouldn’t be a problem, but it has been. The Raiders need to utilize Moss’ height and leaping ability more when they get near the end zone. They have one of the best red zone weapons in the game, and they’re not using him.
Why have the Chargers been so bipolar this year?
Because their defense is not good. If their offense doesn’t knock the other team down at the start of the game, forcing them to play catch-up, that defense gets exposed and the Chargers lose. Granted, they’ve faced some good offenses this year (Dallas, Denver, Giants, Steelers, Patriots), but in the AFC West, they’re going to face good offenses a lot, and the Raiders are one of them.
Is Lamont Jordan ever going to be the back the Raiders thought he would be?
I don’t see why he would. Much was made of the Raiders adding a new dimension to their offense by signing Jordan, but really, what was that based on, the fact that he looked good carrying the ball 5 or 6 times a game with the Jets? The dude is fat, and not good fat in a Jerome Bettis type of way. I’m talking bad fat in a Maurice Clarett type of way. He needs to get in shape if he’s going to be a guy that can carry the ball effectively 25 times a game, 16 games a year, and he’s not there yet.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
I think this is a game the Raiders can win. They can throw the ball, and the Chargers have problems with that, so the Raiders can put some points on the board in this one.
However, when you’ve got no balls, you’ve got no balls, and the Raiders are 2-11 against their own division since 03. They haven’t shown me any indication that they’ve gained the competitive fire to win division games this year. That and the fact that LT rushed for 164 yards against them when these teams met in Oakland last year make this a win for the Chargers.
CHARGERS 33, RAIDERS 23
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Chargers Win- A division win on the road is huge, and the Chargers need it bad to avoid a 2-4 start. They travel to Philly next week, and we know what happened last time they paid a visit to one of last year’s Super Bowl teams.
Chargers Lose- The Chargers have looked great at times this year, but it doesn’t do them any good with a 2-4 record. Expect the calls for Phillip Rivers to take over at QB to begin if the Chargers lose.
Raiders Win- For the Raiders to even think about contending for the playoffs, they have to improve their performance against their own division. A win against the Chargers is a good start.
Raiders Lose- If the Raiders start the year 1-4, the heat will really be on Norv Turner. Everyone on this team will be playing for jobs the rest of the year, beginning with a home game against Buffalo in Week 7.
HOUSTON TEXANS (0-4) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-2)
8:30 PM Eastern, ESPN, Seahawks favored by 9 ½
The Storyline
The Seahawks got what might have been the biggest win in Mike Holmgren’s tenure with the team when they beat the Rams in St. Louis last week. The Hawks lost to the Rams 3 times last year, and beating them was a hump they badly needed to get over. They’re all alone in first place in the NFC West. The wheels have fallen off for the Texans. They were booed mercilessly in a home loss last week, and things could get really ugly if they take a beating on national TV this week.
Key Questions
Will the Texans go 0-16?
No. They have a home game against Arizona in week 15. If they don’t win another game this year, they will win that one. The Cardinals have won like 1 of their last 75 games on the road.
Will the Texans draft Matt Leinart if they get the #1 pick next year, which it looks like they sure might?
I think they have to. The David Carr thing hasn’t worked out, and you can only hear about how he gets no protection for so long. A lot of that is his own fault. Let’s just say his Madden field vision cone is very, very small.
Who has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL?
Believe it or not, the Seattle Seahawks. We want the ball. And we’re going to score.
HERE’S YOUR FORECAST
ESPN would love to pre-empt this game with a taped strongman contest from 1982. This is going to be a slaughter.
SEAHAWKS 34, TEXANS 10
Time and Punishment- Looking Ahead
Texans Win- A win by Houston in this game would probably be the biggest regular season upset in recent memory.
Texans Lose- Houston fans react with a giant Let’s go Astros.
Seahawks Win- This game is a victory lap for the Seahawks. It’s the closest thing to a homecoming game you’ll see in the NFL. The Hawks have the Cowboys at home next week, and they want payback for what happened on MNF last year.
Seahawks Lose- Shaun Alexander could play this game on ketamine and the Seahawks would still win.
Sack Magnet
PIMPS UP HOS DOWN
That’s a wrap for this week! Check back on Monday and we’ll see how all this turned out.
Until then, check out these young men:
Reverend Sick bashes you over the head, UFC style.
IP Sports Radio is in your ear.
Tierney leads with a quote from world class douchebag David Wells, then previews this winter’s MLB free agent class.
…aand I can’t link anyone else, because there’s some ad that wants me to scratch off monkey faces that’s keeping the headlines from loading.
Sooo..read Patrick, he’s always good. Rogers covers the NFL from a fantasy football angle, which complements this column nicely, Slayer brings the college football goods every week. Oli Porter and Steve Price kick ass too, as does Jay Gauss.
Alright then see you on Monday.
