Welcome back to the 4-Point Play. We are entering the final weeks of the preseason and the long road to the title starts in Nov. Before the season gets too far underway, however, I’m going to give you a bit of a preview of each division and then some predictions: Standings, key players, and preseason awards. I’ll start with the Eastern Conference today and give you the Western Conference mid-week.
Atlantic Division
1) New Jersey Nets:
Why?– From the moment he became a Net, Vince Carter put on the kind of show that reminded people (me especially) why we cared about the guy in the first place. Exploding to the basket, taking care of the ball, and scoring at will, you could make the argument that he was the single best player in the league the final 20 or so games of the year. What impressed me the most was a great FG% (51%) and very low turnovers. He was simply creating offense at a higher rate than anybody else. Add to that the best passing PG in the game, the wing exploits of a healthy Richard Jefferson, and a quality big in Nenad Krstic and you have a recipe for first place in mediocre, however improving, Atlantic Division.
What could possibly go wrong?– Health. Kidd is also subject to health concerns because of his age and history. No he doesn’t need to leap tall building, but without a reliable jumper Kidd needs his explosion to get to the basket. Jefferson ruptured a ligament in his wrist and while everything should be fine, you always want to get a healthy season under your belt before you sigh in relief. Lastly, Vince Carter has never been all that durable. Maybe last year’s “injury” problems were made up, but he has a long history of not finishing games when dinged up.
The season hinges on…..– Health and how well Marc Jackson and Nenad Krstic play. Jackson, in particular, needs to have a big season to help justify the Nets’ decision to let Shreef Abdur Rahim go. Due to a prior knee injury the team felt like getting Rahim was too big a risk. With Rahim the team was a mortal lock to win the Atlantic and so Jackson (Rahim’s “replacement”) must have one his best seasons as a pro. With as much perimeter firepower as the Nets have they must have both big men, playing well, to do much in the playoffs.
2) New York Knicks-
Why?– 2nd place almost by default. Larry Brown will make the single biggest impact all season for this club. Yes they acquired Quentin Richardson during a draft-day trade. Yes, they acquired Eddy Curry for PF Mike Sweetney. Yes, Zeke seemingly nailed the draft with 3 very solid players in Channing Frye, Nate Robinson, and David Lee. However, the Brown signing will change all these players as well as the players already on the roster. The defense will be better, the turnovers should be limited, and the problems that plagued the Knicks during the last seconds of close games last year should be gone. Another factor will be the move of Stephon Marbury to essentially more of a SG role. This takes advantage of his scoring, without making him totally responsible for getting the rest of his team involved. That move should make him a slightly more effective player than he was last year….where he had probably the best season of his career.
What could possibly go wrong?– A whole hell of a lot. The guard situation looks to be dynamic but could also cause lots of problems. Both Jamal Crawford and Stephon Marbury are going to have issues pleasing Larry Brown. He demands much of his PG’s and he expects them to play a certain way. Marbury’s move to SG could help some, but on some level Brown is going to expect both his guards to take care of the ball and pass more often than either have their entire careers.
Next is the situation at center. Isaiah Thomas blew the MLE on Big Snacks Jerome James because he had one good playoff series and Ray Allen seemed to think he was a swell guy. If he shows up and is a dud then the team loses a ton of expected interior defense. Starting in front of him will be Eddy Curry. Not only is there a cloud around him because of the news this off season that he could have heart problems, but work ethic has never been his strong suit….and while he was rubbed raw by the emotion of Scotty Skiles he’s NEVER dealt with a coach as abrasive as Larry Brown.
Finally, much of the bench relies on rookies. Yes, they have talent. Yes, they have had a very solid preseason. However, they ARE rookies and the Knicks are going to have to rely on them for big minutes and big moments at different times during the year. One can count on a single hand the number of rookies Brown has helped develop. He simply doesn’t care for the growing pains. The GM is going to have to push Brown to make sure he gets the kids up and running before the playoffs. While benches tend to tighten, the Knicks have a team that could foul often and thus important bench minutes will be used by Frye, Robinson, and Lee. Will they be ready? If they aren’t this team will not win a playoff round.
The season hinges on….– Eddy Curry. If he provides the scoring punch down low that he showed in Chicago this team will have the kind of scoring balance that will give teams fits. He’s accurate from close range and can beat double-teams consistently. For this team to go deep in the playoffs it’s his defense and rebounding that must improve more than any other player on the roster. If he dies, has to retire, has to take a year off, or simply busts then the team is set back significantly because the man behind him (James) is not ready to provide what the team needs full-time.
3) Boston Celtics-
Why?– The battle between the Celtics and the Sixers could come down to the last week of the season. So why do I have the Celtics 3rd when, on paper, they look inferior to the Sixers at almost every position? 1) Danny Ainge. 2) Depth
One thing lost in the huge trade that brought Jason Williams and Antoine Walker to the Heat was that the Boston Celtics actually picked up a very valuable puzzle piece that I think will help him beat out the Sixers and make the playoffs. That piece was a trade exception that Ainge is probably going to use correctly to add more firepower to a team that should have some major strengths going for it once mid season rolls around.
The other issue here is depth. The Sixers have a very mediocre bench, while the Celtics could have one of the deepest teams in the league….even before the trade exception is used. Dan Dickau, Tony Allen, Raef LaFrentz (or Al Jefferson), Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green. That team could probably finish ahead of the Raptors in the division by itself. No there isn’t one single star but: The pg passes well, the wing players defend well, the SG has the potential to light up a scoreboard, and the bigs could start for several NBA teams. During an 82 game season I trust the depth of the Celtic more than the depth of the Sixers to pick up the slack when foul trouble and injury hits….and they hit every team at SOME point.
What could possibly go wrong?– Not everything is set up for the Celtics to jump back into the playoffs. It has long been rumored that Paul Pierce is unhappy in Boston. Getting stabbed in your hometown doesn’t help, but besides that Pierce is unhappy that the team is in yet another rebuild mode. For a player entering his peak he doesn’t want to be battling it out for last place every year in a crummy division that any decent team (see: Nets) should easily be walking away with. While I think Ainge has done a great job of rebuilding I can understand Pierce not fully grasping Ainges unorthodox strategy and philosophy. Should Pierce force a trade or become a huge disruption, I’m not sure a young team (and young coach like Doc Rivers) can get through the season living up to a slightly raised expectation.
The season hinges on……– Mark Blount. Yes Celtic fans I know that this is the thought that keeps you up at night, but unfortunately Blount is the key. Last year Blount was so horrible he made the Iraq war seem competent by example. His FG% was ok, but after a very nice 03-04 season the energy and ability just wasn’t there. It seemed to me that he did just enough to score the big contract and then gave up. If this continues it forces the team to start Raef LaFrentz at center and Al Jefferson at PF. This isn’t a huge problem, but it hurts the team’s interior defense (based on Blount’s play in 03) AND it really destroys big-man depth. However, Blount has looked very very solid so far this preseason. If he is back and playing solid ball again, then the team can start Jefferson or LaFrentz based on matchup issues and then use the depth to their advantage later in games. A motivated Mark Blount will go a long way in helping Boston finish ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers.
4-Philadelphia 76ers-
Why?– They have the frontline talent to win the division….at least the names to win it. Any team that has Allen Iverson and Chris Webber would be expected to contend for the Eastern Conference Championship. So why will the team not even make the playoffs? Well, for one thing the fit. Look, Chris Webber has a leg that appears like he bought it off a bag lady. The thing hurts his ability to move up and down the gym and while that was ok on a team where he was the high post focal point, its murder on a team that has quick athletes like Allen Iverson and Andre Igudala. At this point in his career Chris Webber is best sitting on the elbow picking teams apart with this passing and 15ft jumper. However, Iverson is best in the open court with the ball in his hands blazing by defenders on his way to the rim. It proved to be a tough fit for the team last year and it will be against this year. While I expected fans to love the move I certainly expected Billy King to know better then to put either man in this position, but he made the trade anyhow. Unfortunately for King NBA titles aren’t won the same way Fantasy Basketball titles are won. Again, most fans don’t understand this, but a man who makes his living doing this should.
The reason the team can TOTALLY be left out of the playoff picture is because they do have some interesting parts. Obviously it all starts with Iverson. He’s a human blur AND I think he must also be given immense credit for growing into a fine on-court leader. One can argue that he’s selfish (though I think he plays within schemes coaches set up for him) but what you can’t argue are the intangibles and the toughness. He has both in spades. Added to A.I. are some nice players in Andre Igudala and Samuel Dalembert. Both men should have their best seasons as pros with Igudala being a candidate for true break-out status.
What could possibly go wrong? Webber gets hurt. AI and Webber’s games don’t mix again. Samuel Dalembert not justifying the huge amount of money given to him. The bench being even worse than it looks on paper. Because of AI I can’t see the team being THAT bad. Even if it all breaks apart he and Igudala are gonna keep the team in the playoff hunt…the individual talent is just too much not to. But they could go from a team with a shot, to a team just holding on. Unfortunately, because of some of the large missteps by King, this team has little chance at improving unless it can find a brain-dead GM to take Webber of their hands should the shithouse completely burn down. I see no situation where they are in last place, but also very few situations where they win the division.
The season hinges on….– The Sixer bigs Dalembert and Webber. Somehow Webber has to find a role to play that he can excel in. Even if it means his personal numbers take a hit he must find a way to play smart defense and promote ball movement and offensive flow. Dalembert must cover for Webbers lack of defensive prowess and provide just enough on the offensive end to keep teams from octuple teaming Iverson. He can’t allow a slow start to get to him because the fans will be calling for his head given the amount of money he now makes (almost 10 mil per).
5- Toronto Raptors-
Why?– The Raptors have been so mismanaged by Rob Babcock it’s surprising they haven’t been booted from the league. If the NBA were run like most soccer leagues the Raptors would be relegated to the NBDL (now the D-League) to play against the Riverside Squirt or the Searcy Mudbuckets. They do have some salvageable long term talent. It starts and basically ends with Chris Bosh. A fantastic talent with room to grow this guy should keep the team from looking like a high school B team. While it was a stupid pick due to position, Charlie Villanueva looks like he will have a very solid year at the forward spot…even if it is coming off the bench. Outside of that it’s your typical day in Beirut. There are plenty of Jalen Roses’ and Mike James’ to provide almost nothing for the squad, and the coaching staff is in flux because it has a psychopath running the operation I the way of Sam Mitchell. Just a bad team with one of the worst GM performances I’ve seen since Scott Layden.
What could possibly go wrong?– What hasn’t gone wrong? When you’re in last place it’s probably better to look at what could go right. Bosh could break out in an Amare Stoudemire-like fashion this year and be somewhere between a poor mans KG and a poor mans Tim Duncan; Jalen Rose could provide needed scoring punch without jacking up 18-25 shots a night; Sam Mitchell could find a way to make a really ordinary rotation play to it’s maximum potential. That could squeeze out 5 or so extra wins and possibly keep things tight in the division for a few months. But the last 2 things DEFINILTY won’t happen so put them down for last place and move on.
The season hinges on…….– Every other team in the Atlantic getting into a horrible mid-air plane collision and dying. This is the only way the Raptors do anything in the division this season. They don’t have the horses to be a threat.
Central Division
1- Detroit Pistons-
Why?– In what should be a fantastic race I pick the Pistons to edge out the Pacers for the simple fact that almost every one of their starters is as good or better than the Pacers….with the exception of PF. I do love the depth of the Pacers, but I have a hard time believing that Jeff Foster, Stephen Jackson, and Jamal Tinsley can stay consistent enough all season to best a team with one ring under its belt and almost another last season. Billups and Hamilton form a very strong backcourt who understands how to work off the rest of the team and play to their strengths. Teyshaun Prince is primed for another step in what should be an all-star campaign. The Wallace boys should provide tough defense and solid rebounding. Rasheed in particular needs to have a good season because I believe his scoring will be called upon more now by Flip. It would not shock me to see Wallace playing a role in Flips offense similar to what KG did in Minnesota.
What might surprise some people about last years Piston team is how mediocre the bench was. When you consider that Larry Brown banished Darko Milicic to NBA hell for the season, and most of the bench players from 03-04 were non-factors, it’s amazing they did as well as they did last year. Okur, James, and Corliss Williamson were all keys to the 03-04 team, and none were around last year. It showed. Only Antonio McDyess saved the bench from being almost totally useless.
This season the bench is better. Not to 03-04 level, but superior to last year and just enough to edge the Pacers. Combine that with a much-needed coaching change (Brown out, Flip Saunders in) and you’re looking at a team that is almost a mortal lock to get to, at least, the second round of the playoffs and possibly much further.
What could possibly go wrong?– It isn’t so much what could go wrong as much as it is what else could go right for their division rivals. It just so happens that they are stuck in what should be one of the best divisions in basketball. The Pacers are essentially their equal, the Bucks are improved, the Caves had a hell of an off season, and the team I pick to be in last place actually made the playoffs last year! One has to wonder if the title runs of the past two years, not to mention the coaching drama surrounding the team, are going to provide the opening some of these teams behind them need.
Can Darko be a player? Will the team respond well to Flip Saunders’ coaching style? Will bench players like Arroyo, Delfino, and rookie Jason Maxiell step up? If something goes wrong and they don’t….it could be the end of their fantastic three year run.
The season hinges on…….– Health. For the NBA the Pistons have what would be considered a fairly old starting 5. Prince is 24, Hamilton is 27, Billups is 29, and both Wallace’s are 31. While none of those players have had injury concerns in the past, it would not shock me to see the 3 oldest Pistons start to wear down earlier than normal this season. With the wear comes the tear and especially considering the division they are in, health will be a factor. Last year the starter minutes were very high and it’s probably why they did as well as they did. While they won’t need to replicate that, they are in too tough a division to rely too much on their unproven backups.
2- Indiana Pacers
Why?– Lots and lots of talent. We all know the abortion that happened last year. Ron Artest was suspended for almost the whole year; Jermaine Oneal was either suspended or hurt for basically 75% of the season; Stephen Jackson was out…the list goes on and on. However, the one positive of that experience was that several players got much more experience than they would have normally and because of the increased playing time they probably improved much more than they would have.
The team did lose icon Reggie Miller in what was a heroic effort to close out a fantastic career. That does not mean, however, that the team got worse this off season. First, they drafted Danny Granger. A player they should have had NO shot at but for some health concerns that allowed him to slip ridiculously far down in the draft. He’s a Scottie Pippen type on the defensive end and should be a very solid rebounder from the opening tip. They also snuck around the Cavs and landed PG Sarunas Jasikevicius. He was highly sought by several team, but GM Donnie Walsh was able to land him because of the belief that the Pacers are close to a title. While Jasikevicius had, what I would consider, a mediocre college career he did seem to bloom in Europe and his outside shooting will open things up all over the court.
Those acquisitions are added to a solid core lead by Ron Artest and Jermaine Oneal, who happen to form the best forward tandem in the Eastern Conference. Both players could have career years.
What could possibly go wrong?– Well for starters Ron Artest could go kookoo for coca puffs again. The man has serious psychological issues and clearly needs some sort of help. His loss could be made up, somewhat, by Granger, but clearly it would put the team in an unneeded bind that several other teams in the division could capitalize on.
What else? Jamal Tinsley and Stephen Jackson both had fine years, but it’s very possible that one or both could easily regress. The factor that separates star players from everyone else is consistency. If both men were more consistent they would be stars, and if they were stars we would know that by now. I expect some leveling off for both players, but a plunge for either player would really hurt the Pacers, particularly Tinsley. He has had some trouble staying on the court due to injury and this is something that the team really needs him to get over. The talent is there, the turnovers should decrease this season, but until Tinsley stays upright a whole year….the team won’t be as good at the PG position as it could be.
The season hinges on……..– I’m going to go out on a limb and say it hinges on Jamal Tinsley. I know the big story around the league will be Ron Artest: Will he or won’t he lose his ever-loving-mind. However, this team really needs Jamal Tinsley to perform. He sets up their offense and really the key to the team’s defense is that Tinsley applies pressure from the moment the opposition crosses the mid-court line. If Tinsley regresses I don’t see how they catch the Pistons in the Central.
3- Cleveland Cavaliers
Why?– Just below the dogfight between the Pistons and Pacers is a dogfight between 3 teams for the 2nd tier of the division. The Bulls, the Cavs, and the Bucks will all be slugging it out for what will probably be a playoff birth as I don’t see more than 3 teams making it from this division. So why will the Cavs pull it out? Well for starters Ira Newble is back and fierce as ever. Ok you caught me Ira Newble doesn’t matter at all. The reason the Cavs pull it out is because they have the best single player in the division: Lebron James. His ability to dominate a basketball court, offensively, will be a huge advantage the Cavs have over the Bulls and Bucks in this race for 3rd place.
The other big reason is that the Cavs had one of the best offseasons in basketball. They made the smart big splash by signing Larry Hughes to a max deal this off season. His play on the wing will be frightening combined with the playmaking ability of James. Finally Lebron has a player to help take the perimeter burden off him. Hughes isn’t the best shooter in the league, but he’s a nightmare on the break and his passing ability is very good for a SG. Next, the team also kept Zydrunas Illgauskus. Having a legit center is a big weapon in the NBA now-a-days, and Illgauskus can still play. Finally, the team made two small moves that I think is going to help them out. They used the rest of their off season cash to sign Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall. Both players are solid, can shoot the ball, and do not panic in pressure situations. And really, that is exactly what you want in veteran players to begin with.
What could possibly go wrong?– Chemistry is going to be the main factor for this team. The hope is that Lebron allows Hughes to take some of the scoring burden off his shoulders so that he can create opportunities for the entire team. Damon Jones is not a typical PG and is more of a shooting threat than he is a playmaker. It’s very possible that James and Hughes could dominate the ball way too much (Hughes and Gilbert Arenas did this in Washington last year) and this would freeze out Illgauskus, the improving Drew Gooden, and Damon Jones. The team actually needs all three of those players to provide the balance necessary for Hughes and James to kill people on the wings. If the team doesn’t provide that balance then chemistry will go down the toilet and the team will simply be seen as last years Wizards.
The season hinges on……..– Defense. In my mind the offense is going to be dynamic. The balance they should play will is going to force teams to scramble to cover all their options. James and Hughes can both create for themselves or others and that’s going to make them one of the more solid halfcourt teams in the league. On the break they are a living nightmare for teams who must consider James and Hughes as primary threats, but then have to deal with their shooters as well. However, last year, the team was mediocre defensively and that was primarily due to them allowing way too many quality 3 point shots. They were 19th in the league in Opposition FG% and 29th in Opposition 3pt FG%. Neither of these are gonna get it done in that division. The defense must improve.
4- Milwaukee Bucks
Why?– In the other 2 divisions out East the Bucks would be odds on favorites to come in a solid second. However, in the Central they are going to have to fight for their lives to stay out of last place. It’s really a shame too because they had a very solid off season.
They kept Mike Redd, they signed Bobby Simmons, they drafted Andrew Bogut after winning the lottery, and they just screwed over the Hornets by dealing Desmond Mason for Jamal Maglore. That’s an A off season in my book. Their problem has nothing to do with the direction Lenny Harris is taking them (although they overpaid in almost every case this off season, but that’s a problem they will pay for later). Their problem is that they are in a division with some of the real heavyweights of the NBA.
What could possibly go wrong?– Well a few things. It remains to be seen how Andrew Bogut will react to either being a backup center OR the starting PF. When he was drafted it was a no-brainer that he would be the starting center for a vastly improved Bucks team. The trade for center Maglore, however, changes that thinking entirely. It’s inconceivable to me that Maglore moves to the PF spot (the Bucks aren’t that stupid are they?) so Bogut will have to switch gears some and adapt to this new role….whichever role he will have.
The other issue is Michael Redd. 2 years ago he was as underrated a player as there was in the league. The reason for this was his ability to hit perimeter shots with amazing accuracy. The problem last year was that he was relied on so much for the offense that his fg% dropped for the second straight year from a high of 47% in 02-03 to 44% in 04-05. Taking 3pt% into account his numbers grew even worse. This trend needs to stop. Not only to justify the max deal he got, but so the team can improve an area that they didn’t need to address with new players. That is to say it’s an area they can improve on simply by their current stars playing up to their past numbers. Less offensive burden should help Redd, but either way he needs to improve.
The season hinges on…….– The wing players. With Desmond Mason out the team has little depth at the SF position behind Bobby Simmons. He needs to have at least as good a season as he had for the Clips last year. The point totals don’t have to be high, but the rebound rate needs to be there and the FG% needs to be at or above last years 46%. He is an efficient player and with the options on that team he needs to keep that up.
Redd, as I just mentioned, needs to rebound. Not only does that mean he needs to rise back up to prior levels, but he actually physically needs to rebound. His rebound rate dropped from a solid 9.4 (remember rebound rate is the % of misses a player gets while in the game) to a 6.4…which is a fairly large drop and seriously diminishes his value.
5- Chicago Bulls
Why?– Unlike the rest of the teams in this division the bulls had a pretty volatile off season in which they made no significant improvements. Heading into the off season the Bulls had to figure out what to do with its “Baby Bulls”. Both Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry were in contract years and wanted a ton of cash. Chandler got his, but Curry developed a heart problem and the Bulls saw a way out of having to pay him huge money. The relationship soured and the final act played out with a trade to the Knicks for, essentially, PF Mike Sweetney. Outside of that the team stayed basically the same. Yes, Tim Thomas came over in the Curry trade and Tiny Tim should have his best season in awhile, but he isn’t going to play enough minutes to make much of an impact on this team.
The rest of the team is solid, but unlike the teams above them there are no real stars. Tyson Chandler has that potential, but doesn’t score enough to be the man. Kirk Hinrich is a very nice PG, but his coach thinks moving him around to SG is best for the team and thus he is often lost in the offense and does not have a clearly defined role. Ben Gordon should be starting, but last year the far less talented Chris Duhon started, seemingly because Skiles has it in the rear for players that played just like him.
Last years team relied on some clutch scoring from Gordon and rock solid defense to get into the playoffs. This year, however, more is needed to escape this division and the Bulls just don’t have that yet.
What could possibly go wrong?– The decision to start Chris Duhon over Ben Gordon is literally insane. It probably cost the team 2 wins last year (at least) and will again this year if Skiles keeps it up. Scoring is going to be a bit of a problem as neither Sweetney nor Chandler are big time post threats. Both will get their points, but neither can consistently beat double teams. That was the big piece the team dealt away when it got rid of Curry.
My guess is that the lack of scoring punch and the lack of depth behind Chandler and Sweetney will hurt the Bulls. I can’t see them scoring enough points to win as many games as they won last year. It’s going to take an even better defensive effort than last year to match their prior results, and I don’t see it happening. In a few divisions this team is good enough to creep into the playoffs, but in the Central they just don’t have the overall talent yet to do it.
The season hinges on…….– Scott Skiles. Last year he did a fantastic job getting the team to play defense. After a horrid start they buckled down and did a fantastic job denying teams’ easy baskets and sustained scoring runs. Unfortunately, his sub patterns left much to be desired and, again, starting Duhon was just silly. He is going to have to do a better job sprinkling in his bench talent this season and he definitely is going to have to start Ben Gordon to provide scoring punch. Failure to do that will be catastrophic for the Bulls.
Southeast Division
1) Miami Heat
Why?– When you have the 2 best players in the division it’s very tough to lose that division, especially when one of them plays such a thin position like center. Shaquille Oneal and Dwayne Wade form a devastating duo that shoots a high % from the floor and understands their role in Stan Van Gundy’s offense. Not only are they blessed with those players, but Pat Riley went nutty this off season and brought in Jason Williams, James Posey, and Antonie (Human Chuck Machine) Walker. Many people have said that it was a mistake to mess with a team that had come so close to getting into the finals, but I think the mark of a great GM is understanding when a team is good (though not good enough) and making the changes he feels is best to get them to where they need to go. It’s a risky move, but it’s undeniable that the team added a ton of extra firepower.
What could possibly go wrong?– Adding said firepower DID come at a price. That price was in the personalities of the players they received. James Posey is gonna be fine, but the reputations of Jason Williams and Antonie Walker are questionable.
When not making racist comments about Asians, Jason Williams is a flashy player with a reputation for style over substance and uncontrollable tendencies. While I can’t speak to the man’s personality, I can say that his style of ball is misunderstood. Williams is actually pretty careful with the ball as his T.O Ratio and Assist Ratio attest to. His only problem is going to be launching the ill-advised 3. One figures, however, that a few stern talkings to by Oneal will be the remedy to that fault in Jason’s game.
Walker can score all over the place. Like Williams he isn’t a great (or even good) defender, and loves to shoot the ball from deep. When asked why he liked to shoot 3’s so much Walker once told reporters that he liked it because 4-point shots didn’t exist. Did I mention he’s a power forward?
The question is going to be: How will all these styles and personalities co-exist? That’s the task for Jeffery Van Gundy.
The season hinges on……– Defense. Last year the team did a great job overachieving on the defensive end. They refused to gamble on defense (thus they were very low in steals) and they forced misses. However, lots of teams force misses, what the Heat did well was they got defensive rebounds. The team ranked 4th in opp. Fg% and 2nd in defensive rebounds. For a team that doesn’t really have any singularly great defensive player, credit the team for understanding what they COULD do to succeed and then actually doing it. It’s also a great credit to Stan Van Gundy.
2) Washington Wizards
Why?– One of the more interesting battles this season should be between the Wizards and the Magic for 3rd place in the division. The Wizards will take it, however, because they have the greater amount of depth and they appear to be healthier heading into the season.
The big off season move for the Wiz was in the dealing of Kwame Brown. The colossal bust, brought to you by Mikey Jordan, was dealt after a tumultuous season to the Lakers for Chucky Atkins and Caron Butler. Not only did the trade get rid of a problem child, but it single handedly netted the team their starting SG and a quality backup for Gilbert Arenas. Add that to the FA pickup of Antonio Daniels (who can backup either guard spot) and I would submit that the team has as much backcourt depth as anyone in the East.
The frontcourt starts Antwan Jamison, Jared Jefferies, and Brendan Haywood. None of them are spectacular, but all are adequate and there is solid depth behind them. Butler can slide over to the SF slot, Etan Thomas can provide rebounding at both the 4 and 5, and the team is very excited about the potential of rookie Audray Blatche (at best think a poor poor poor man’s KG)
While the starters may not best the Magic, they have much more depth and versatility. They also are injury-free right now and the Magic certainly are not….but more about that later.
What could possibly go wrong?– In my mind there are really only two things I think can happen for this team to drop behind the Magic: 1) Horrible coaching 2) Regression by Gilbert Arenas.
First, the coaching. Eddie Jordan is a fantastic coach. He understands X’s and O’s…he understands defense. Last year he used some interesting strategies to keep teams uncomfortable. What he didn’t do was demand an intensity from anyone on the team. In essence he used his tactics to hide the lack of effort. It worked, but it would be a huge mistake for him to allow his team a repeat performance. Secondarily, he needs to convince PG Gilbert Arenas to become more of a playmaker and to get his shooting % up.
This brings us to Arenas. Last year was a mixed bag for Arenas. He did a great job of cutting silly turnovers, but he still dominated the ball too much. Much of this can be traced to the defensive rules that stopped hand-checking. For a player with his speed that’s a green light to drive till the cows come home….and he did. He needs to take the next step and become more of a creator of offense for others. This is especially important now that he has some weapons around him that are more than capable of scoring.
The season hinges on…….– The ability for Eddie Jordan to mix and match the talent to maximize the output of the team. Having depth is wonderful in for injuries and keeping minutes low to limit wear-and tear. However, players tend to like to play heavy minutes and mixing the talent around can be wildly inefficient if certain players have a hard time missing with the styles of others. Antonio Daniels didn’t come to the team to sit all game, and the team has to also find out what it really has in Jefferies, Jarvis Hayes, and Audray Blatche. It’s up to Jordan to find minutes to keep them all happy while still combining the players in ways that maximize what he’s trying to do. If the inmates run the asylum it could create an environment that hurts chemistry…much what happened during the Kwame Brown years.
3) Orlando Magic
Why?– The Magic are a team in flux right now. They had no clue last year what to do with Steve Francis, they made some horrible trades (the worst was Drew Gooden, Steven Hunter, and Anderson Varejao for Tony Battie), and they made a late season change of head coach when none was needed. This robbed the team of depth and consistency of philosophy and depth, in particular, is why the team will probably sit behind the Wizards this season.
The good news, and why they shouldn’t be rated any lower than third in the division, is that they did a great job with their rookie picks and they have some real scoring punch on the wings.
The nailed rookie pick was Dwight Howard. All he did, out of high school, was have one of the best rookie season from a HS player in history. The big numbers here are the 52% shooting and the 17.2 rebound rate. Fantastic numbers which should only improve as this season goes on.
The scoring punch is provided by Steve Francis, Grant Hill, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jameer Nelson. Particularly Hill is invaluable to the team because he is selfless and can provide the team whatever it needs during any particular game. He can score, and when Francis is feeling rather “ball-hogish” he has more than enough ability to run the offense and promote offensive flow.
What could possibly go wrong?– Well for starters the team has an interesting front office set up. The team has decided on a two-headed monster at the GM position. Dave Twardzik and Otis Smith will lead the charge. Neither man has much of a track record and Twardzik’s is particularly disgusting. I expect at least one stupid trade or cap move this season, which would probably be one more than the Wizards are likely to make.
Lastly, the backcourt mix is sketchy. One would assume the team would play Nelson and Francis together, with Nelson at the point. However, indications are that Francis is still the PG of this team, which means that the SG position is most likely manned by someone worse than Jameer Nelson. The team is not good enough to be sitting it’s best players on the bench. Until they understand what Steve Francis is, or how they can better involve Nelson, the team will not reach it’s full potential.
The season hinges on……– Steve Francis. So much to like and dislike about Stevie Franchise. Too many turnovers, too many technical fouls, and not enough assists. He really does seem to be a SG stuck in a PG’s body. Fortunately for him there is also much to like. He consistently hits big shots, he does play with tons of passion and effort, he rebounds fantastically for a PG, and he’s a solid defender. The question for any team that has him is exactly what to do with him. He needs to hold the ball less and use up less of the shot clock. If he would make that one change, thereby promoting ball movement, he would improve his value to the team immeasurably. Coach Brian Hill has to figure out what he has in Francis and help him harness his ability and direct it in a more efficient manner.
4- Atlanta Hawks
Why?– Boy it’s been one strange off season for the Hawks. They drafted a great player at a position of literally no need. They had an owner try to block a huge mistake in the making (the max signing of Joe Johnson) only to have the rest of the owners essentially get their partner kicked off the team. Call it a buyout if you like, it was their way of getting him as far from the team as possibly. Unfortunately for them he was right about the Johnson signing and they were wrong. Paying max money for Joe Johnson was stupid move by a desperate team. Moving him to PG simply compounded the mistake.
So what’s going right? Well they had a fantastic draft last season. Josh Smith is a real up-and-comer. Murder on the break and a terrific shot blocker, one has to imagine what he will be when he understands what he’s doing. Josh Childress was a solid draft choice. He had solid rebounding numbers for the club and shot decently well. Overall one can’t complain about the draft choice. He won’t be a star, but he will be a solid starter for many years. Lastly, the team DID get a good player when they drafted Marvin Williams. Yes he had a shaky NCAA Tourney, but up until then he was electric for the Tar Heels. He is an explosive player that can do just about anything you want on the court. The only problem with him is that he plays SF and the case can be made that Josh Smith, Al Harrington, and Josh Childress should all be calling SF their preferred position. This could lead to a chemistry issue and possibly a bad defense as slower players will be asked to drop down to SG and smallish players will be asked to bump up to PF.
What could possibly go wrong?– See above. Josh Childress, the projected starting SG, was not a good defender last year and because of his foot speed I don’t see much improvement this year. Al Harrington bumps up to PF and there is a real question as to if he can handle the other PF’s in his division and in the league. He can destroy SF’s down low, but PF’s seem to do exactly that to him. It isn’t that he lacks the motivation of the intellect, but physically he can be worn down by guys like Dwight Howard.
Lastly, I think it’s a huge mistake to have Joe Johnson at the PG position. He has never proven he can run an offense for whole games, let alone seasons. He is a good passer….but he’s a good passer for a SG. I really doubt that he has the speed to beat people to the basket and create for other players.
The season hinges on……– All the baby Hawks. Childress, Smith, Williams. If any of the break out (most likely Smith) then the team will have a true superstar…which it lacks right now. Since all of them will log heavy minutes it’s also key for them to play better defense than any have shown thus far. Smith is the best defender while Williams seems to have tools to suggest he will be solid also. Any regression by Childress and Smith will really hurt the team since it lacks any kind of depth. If Williams doesn’t live up to the hype it will considered a wasted year in that so much of the future is invested in him. It would put the team back at least a year. They would still be ok at the position, but it’s so vital for teams with top 3 picks to nail them. Look at the teams that consistently blow those kind of picks, they tend to hover near the bottom of the league for several year. (See: Clippers)
5) Charlotte Bobcats
Why?– Last place? Oh it’s not all that bad, they are an expansion team for goodness sakes. And really they have been run quite well the first few seasons. They haven’t wasted their cap space, they have made solid (though not spectacular) draft picks, and they seem to understand how to find undervalued players and have them work for them.
The question is what are they going to do next year? Well, that’s not easy to predict because they are made up of SO many young players that you’re really asking to project 10 players and what they will become.
The good news is that they seems to have solid players at every position except SG. Brevin Knight/Emeka Okafor, Primoz Brezec, and Gerald Wallace are a nice group…especially for what the Bobcats are paying them. Brezec in particular was a wonderful signing by Mr. Everything-for-the-Bobcats Bernie Bickerstaff. He picked up Brezec in the expansion draft and he is turning out to be a solid starting center in the league….a position that is very difficult to find.
Behind them are rookies Raymond Felton and Sean May. While I felt like they could have made better picks at the spots they drafted both players, there was logic to what they did. Both men played college in-state and both should at least be solid. Felton has some all-star potential and is a good defender. May will probably turn out to be like a young Corliss Williamson: A bull in the paint with the ability to score against most of the non-uber physical PF’s. What will keep him from being more than that is that I doubt he will be a good defender on this level. He is too short and weighs too much to really stop anyone in the paint. Also players of his body type (short and fat) tend to flame out and age rather poorly.
What could possibly go wrong?– I don’t much will go wrong. This is the kind of team that could play well for what it is, and still be in last place. The simple fact of the matter is that they are an expansion team and they don’t have any singular superstar player. What they have are gritty unselfish types (Okafor, May, Knight, Theron Smith) who should provide a great base to build from. Barring Felton becoming a stud they still need to find a go-to player. I don’t see many injury concerns, I don’t see the team having chemistry issues, and I don’t see how a coach can make this team all that much worse. Because of that I don’t think much will go wrong, I just think this team is a few seasons away from being a real threat to do much damage. Call it a 20 win season and move on.
The season hinges on…….– Probably Felton. He’s really the only shot the team has right now of a superstar player. If he can beat out Knight for the PG role that’s a big sign that he is ready to show some great things. Because most of the rest of the team should be expected to do what it did last year, he’s really the only candidate that could offer a significant upgrade of talent at any position. IF he does that this team could be slightly more competitive. If he does little to nothing then the team should be a carbon copy of what it was last year. Solid….but overwhelmed by any team with even solid talent.
Preseason Awards
MVP- Lebron James
This is the year he officially scares everyone. Still hasn’t hit his peak and finally has some players around him.
Rookie of the Year- Andrew Bogut
Not shocking. He was the most NBA ready rookie and he’s in a nice situation.
Coach of the Year- Stan Van Gundy
Tons of pressure on Van Gundy with all the talent. I think he finds a way to make it all fit together and keeps Riley from firing him….for now.
Players most likely to get his coach fired- Allen Iverson/Chris Webber
This is a combo award for what appears to be the biggest mismatch of talent in the league. Both players have strong personalities and have no qualms about stating displeasure with their coaches. In Webbers case he rarely turns his spotlight inward. If this combo can’t get it right……O’Brien could go the way of the Stegosaurs.
Player most underutilized- Jerome Mosio
Apparently 7 footers with amazing hops and solid rebounding ability grow on 7-footer-with-amazing-hops-and-solid-rebounding trees.
Player most over utilized- Chris Duhon
Nice player, but starter….c’mon Skiles, wake the hell up.
Who’s in the playoffs:
Miami Heat
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
New Jersey Nets
Cleveland Cavs
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
Boston Celtics
ECF:
Miami Heat over Detroit Pistons in 5
This is the end….my only friend….the end
Thanks for hanging in with me. Come back mid week as I break down the West. This was a new format for me so hopefully the next column is a bit better than this one. I still hope you got some info you can use at the water cooler or even fantasy draft.
Lastly, there are several great writers on this site…please check them out.
