Okay, joke time over.
After receiving a few emails, it became apparent to some fans that Miss Yours Truly did not post a column at all this week. And to add insult to injury, I even advertised what could have been:
“And next week is a treat for the brain, so bring your creative side next Tuesday.”
And then no column at all. Not even a lackluster one.
The explanation? I knew ahead of time that I would not be able to do my column, so I told people to bring their creative side because if you wanted a column, you were going to have to invent your own. It was my way of celebrating Create-a-Column Week.
And the grumbles and glares of death commence. The death threats, however, remain constant.
And here it is, the morrow of the Survivor Guatemala finale. There’s four people left. Let’s assess everyone’s deal, after some brief comments regarding last week.
Obviously, there was one big thing, and that was Cindy. Cindy became the second woman to win the car challenge. And then offered her a deal only a fool would take. That’s right, only someone who was extremely naive or generous could pass up a car he/she earned so that you could give it away. It just doesn’t make sense.
So what I’m saying is that Cindy absolutely made the right decision. And she played it so well: she thought aloud weighing the pros and cons, and then decided that she was going to be the one to break the curse. And the company she was with fully understood her decision. Very diplomatic, Cindy.
I don’t blame Cindy at all. Those people would not have treated her any differently had she given them cars. But, the curse does not fall on the winner of the car, rather the winner of the car challenge. Let’s not forget that Amber was given a car, and she won All Stars (woo!). So if Cindy were to give away the cars, the other four would not be car winners, rather car recipients. There is no curse of the car recipients, and you can’t pass the curse to others using a car as the vehicle to do so (PUN ALERT RED). So when you win the car challenge, you’re doomed, and just live it up.
But despite how Cindy played winning the car, the aftermath was what did her in. Picking Steph was a decent move; by not choosing sides she did not piss anyone off. But… I do think that she could have picked someone else and not pissed people off. Cindy brought Steph, and she totally forgot that when Lydia, Rafe, and Danni were together, they were able to get Judd gone. Hmm…. I wonder who else they could get rid of?
And then, you stop talking about your new car you just won!
That’s all I can say, because anything else would just be repetitious.
And it bothers me too, because Cindy was just starting to prove her worth, and then she goes and blows it big. I guess I’m more frustrated as an onlooker more than anything else. And I was starting to like her, too. Damn that sucks.
Before assessing the non-losers who are still left in the game, I just want to say congrats to Steph. Over the past two seasons, this was Stephenie’s first individual win (I’m not counting the time four out of eight people went to a spa – that was a 50% chance she’d be going on it). This girl is good.
So that’s that about last week. Onto the future.
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It may be out of place, but it’s time for the rundown: Extreme Abridged Version. I’ll have plenty to talk about with each person, and it will all make sense once I tell you each person’s chances of winning, relative to everyone else (Previous rankings not shown because of the imaginary column last week).
The final four:
4- Lydia Morales
3- Danni Boatwright
2- Rafe Judkins
1- Stephenie LaGrossa
Fun fact. This season, I have had five different people at #1 of my rundown (this figure excludes Brooke’s pre-show #1). And those five people are Margaret, Brandon, Stephenie, Danni, and Rafe. Also, Margaret and Brandon were #1 in only the first three weeks, meaning that every week since week four, Danni, Rafe, or Steph has been #1. I’d say I did pretty damn good, considering all this. Also, since I have Lydia at #4, I obviously think she’s least likely to win. That would mean that one of the other three would win, and I would have been correct in at least one of past columns. Hooray beer!
LYDIA
Anyone in the final four has to impress lots of people, if for nothing else than they beat at least 75% of their competition. Lydia is no exception. I can appreciate the under-the-radar or riding-coattails strategies in almost any scenario; it’s something that gets you further into the game. This appreciation only applies, however, to those who are consciously choosing to play that way. But I can’t help but think that Lydia employed neither of these strategies. It’s as if she got here by chance. Whatever road the game took, Lydia was very neutral, such that she was never the “worst” player in any given round. She was always the second lowest on the Yaxha pecking order, and she was valuable in Nakum because of her old blue Yaxha roots. Then the merge came, power players Brandon, Bobby Jon, Jamie, Gary, and Cindy were ousted because of their strength, such that Lydia’s lack of physical ability in no way threatened people. With Judd, he was not able to be trusted, and Lydia by comparison was.
Lydia has been consistent, however. That’s certainly not a bad thing, unless you’re consistently good (Brandon). With Lydia, I don’t see a million bucks. She’s essentially there (the fact that she was the obvious swing vote was totally overlooked this past week, as Cindy/Steph could have fought Danni/Rafe for Lydia’s vote), which has been sufficient to get her to this point. But she doesn’t really have much attachment to anyone remaining, so it’s not like it would be too emotionally difficult to get rid of Lydia.
All in all, I see her having a tough time getting to the final two, but it is possible that she could be used as second place bait. I don’t foresee her really wowing a jury if she were to get to that point. But again, if others piss off the jury, Lydia’s lack may be good by comparison. Crazier things have happened. And Lydia could just become the second oblivious Hispanic woman to win Survivor because she did nothing the whole season, and an angry jury punished the #2 player (I know I offended lots of fans right there).
Overall chance of winning: 10%
DANNI.
Danni is the only person left in Guatemala who has yet to see her name on parchment, and the tenth ever to accomplish this. And that prompted me to note that nine others have reached the final four without getting a single vote up until that point (Kelly Wiglesworth, Tina Wesson, Ethan Zohn, Paschal English, Brian Heidik, Sandra Diaz-Twine, Rob Mariano, Jenn Lyon, and Tom Wesson). Of those nine, two have placed fourth, two have placed second, and five have won. Anyone can like those odds.
Danni also has done a good job of not pissing anyone off, all the while, being very likeable and hot. She also has the underdog status, because she was doomed once Nakum took over Xhakum. Combine those with the fact that the non-vote getters have reached final two seven out of nine times, and it looks like Danni is 78% likely to reach final two, and definitely way more than 50% likely to win should she get that far. So just doing simple math, she would have at least a 39% chance of winning.
Danni is also apparently in good with Rafe (when’d that happen?). A twosome in the final four is an awesome position to be in. She’s likeable enough to be spared because she’s more liked than someone else (yes, even at this point, likeability is still a factor). She’s physically gifted, such that she could win immunities from here on out, yet she is not a threat.
And she’s hot (too bad no one left on the final four likes girls).
So why the hell did I give her #3? Stephenie knows that Danni is trouble to everyone out there. Xhakum needs to get rid of Danni STAT, so that they do not allow her to get any closer to the final two where she would annihilate even Jesus. And that is going to be her biggest obstacle. While it is possible that Lydia, Rafe, and Steph decide to vote together simply because of an old alliance, it’s unlikely. If those three bond to oust Danni, it will be because of Danni’s final two danger. And as sad as sounds, I think that may be something Danni won’t be able to get over. Danni, you’re a great person, and everyone loves you, but you can’t stick around because you are a major threat to everyone else. That’s what people are going to say as they vote Danni out, crying.
So Danni, we love you. And everyone wants to see you win. Hey, your Chiefs upset the Broncos last week, and maybe Kansas City can get over a huge obstacle again this week. Go get ’em.
Overall chance of winning: 25%
RAFE
I think that Rafe and Steph are equally likely to win. Rafe has the best shot out of anyone to get to the final two, but sadly, the only person Rafe can beat may be Lydia. And that, my friends, is how I’m basing my rankings.
Rafe hasn’t done anything really wrong this season. He’s sat back intentionally while people F’d up. He’s done very well in challenges. He’s well liked and respected. And he’s just an all around good guy.
But I do think that the people he’s with are going to be Rafe’s downfall. I think many fans would agree with me that Lydia is least likely to reach final two, meaning that if Rafe gets there, he’s with Steph or Danni – two women, either of which could win a vote against Rafe.
And I have to stop right there. Because while you could figure everything out, with probabilities/contingencies, and the like, it all comes down to the jury in the end. I’ve already discussed Danni in the final two, so Rafe would be best to faceoff against Stephenie. And I think that in terms of “deserving” to win, Rafe and Steph have played the game the best thus far, and it would be appropriate for those two to square off. And in recent seasons, the two best players did make the final two. Rafe versus Steph would not disappoint anyone.
Except for Rafe fans. A Rafe/Steph F2 would be perfect because you can’t really predict how things will go. If that’s the case, you know Danni would vote for Rafe, and Bobby Jon would vote for Steph. But the other five are a total tossup. Would Jamie and Judd be pissed off at Steph for blindsiding them, or respect her for playing the game? Would Gary carry his pre-boot anti-Steph sentiment to the Jury, or will he be a big enough person to become objectionable? And how the hell would Cindy and Lydia vote?
Those are some big questions floating around there. And as a fan, I think those questions alone would be enough to want a Steph/Rafe F2. As a columnist, I think it’s what we in the audience will see happen. That’s right, I’m predicting a Stephenie versus Rafe Final Two.
So Rafe, you’re very likely to reach the final two. And you may have a chance against Lydia or Steph, but not against Danni. If you want to be a good player, you know who to take with you if the chance arises. Good luck kid.
Overall chance of winning: 30%
STEPHENIE
This leaves us with one person. I truly think deep down that Stephenie LaGrossa will win Survivor Guatemala. However, while I am picking her as the favorite to win, her odds are still not that good. In other words, it’s anyone’s game. It is anyone’s game, but Steph is still slightly in the lead.
Steph has been in control of this entire game. She has always made sure that the power was around her, because she brought them to her. She was fortunate not to be the Palau dominatrix she was last year, to the point where she was simply a “good” player this time. Whether that was happenstance or strategy, it doesn’t matter; it worked out for her. And ever since Nakum ruled Xhakum, Steph has still been an integral player. The girl is capable of winning challenges, regardless of what Palau or most of Guatemala showed us. While all of this happened, she maintained control of the game, never letting go. Stephenie has been at #1 of my rankings for the past six columns, seven total for the year.
And maybe I’m completely biased for touting her stats as I did, but I think that her performance thus far is enough to say that she’s the best player, and that she fully deserves the money.
Steph’s had her moments, though. Dear God, I was ready to cheer for her boot when she was with The Douchebag Club with Jamie and Judd. And a few weeks ago with Lydia, Steph was… a bitch. Oh, I totally respected the way she handled herself, but anyone could say that she did achieve bitchiness levels previously unseen by her.
But when it all comes down to it, I think she is still in control of this game, whatever threat Rafe/Danni may offer. I think she will be able to convince Lydia and Rafe that Danni needs to go. And if not, she’ll convince Rafe/Danni to go against Lydia. Steph will not settle for silver. Also, she still has the presence to deflect attention, such that even without an ally, no one would vote her out. And that says a lot.
As I said previously, Rafe versus Steph would be the ideal F2. Those two truly are the best players so far, and deserve to duke it out. It would be so close, but I think Steph would edge out Rafe. Steph would get Bobby Jon’s automatically, similar to how Rafe would from Danni. The other five are close, but I think Steph has a slight advantage. While Rafe did go on a reward with Cindy, so did Steph. And Steph’s was closer to Cindy’s boot, so it’s fresher in Cindy’s mind. Also, Rafe did campaign against Cindy, so that may be a factor. I say Cindy goes for Steph. As does Lydia, because as Gary explained, some (coughLydiacough) is starstruck by Steph. Lydia has looked up to Steph since Stephenie walked down the steps of the pyramid on day one. As for the other three guys in the jury, Judd will likely punish Steph for getting rid of him. And Gary, despite all the good things I said about him earlier, I think will be a bitter juror, voting for Rafe so that Steph does not get it. That leaves (save your groans for the end) Jamie as the objective one. Look at everything, and Jamie’s exit showed class, and I think he will show class by not being a bitter juror. He’ll look at everything, and not penalize Steph for his boot, but rather, look beyond it because Steph is the best player (similar to Helen voting for Brian in Thailand).
Sorry, I just realized that I may have given Jamie a glowing compliment (Dora vomits to rid the body of impure thoughts). But I have a hunch that’s how it will happen, Steph over Rafe 4-3.
When you look at everything, there’s always stories going on. Borneo was the story of man who was very sneaky, and used that so he could win the game. All Stars was the one of the best love stories I’ve ever seen (the only time that someone was able to affect the way a different tribe voted – come one, that’s awesome). And Vanuatu was the story of a man who was always overcoming adversity, such that he overcame all on his way to the money.
And I think tonight will be fitting ending to the Stephenie Saga. Think about it. It’s a way for CBS to tell a story, have it end, only to relive it even better (note, I am in no way suggesting CBS rigs Survivor, I just chose CBS as the subject of the last sentence so it was not in passive voice). Here’s a girl who’s clearly better than her record indicates. No matter how hard she tries, she always loses, yet manages to keep her head up. During the course of all this, people fall in love with the character. You have one of the most memorable Tribal Councils ever when someone quit the game so that Stephenie could remain. All that was for naught, however, because she was gone the next week. She’s a juror, votes, and story over. Or is it? Miraculously, she’s brought back. And as Jeff assigns her a team as he says that she is the most obvious target. This girl works and works, determined to show that she can win.
I say it’s only fitting she wins. Last week was a great way to show it. Lead up to her finish by having her win immunity. From then on, she never looks back. And the story ends happily ever after.
So getting back to the game, Steph is in a good position to get to the final two (although not as good as Rafe), but in a very good position in front of the jury (can beat anyone but Danni). While it is going to be a great finale, it will be a shootout (hence Steph’s low probability of winning). It is anyone’s game. But I do think that Steph has the best chance of winning (hence the highest probability of winning).
Probability of winning: 35%
And with that, it’s time for me to catch up on sleep, so that I can stay up till 11pm tonight. I should be back in a couple days with my wrap up of the finale. Enjoy the show.
Until next time, when we discuss the benefits of grooming, stay cool.
~Dora
