[MLB] Riding the Pine…

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“He might not live to see the end of that contract.”
–a scout, on 47 year old first baseman Julio Franco, who just signed a two-year deal with the Mets (FoxSports.com).

“If the Mets get Manny Ramirez, he’ll be the first outfielder sponsored by OnStar.”
–an AL scout, on Ramirez’ outfield defense in Shea (New York Newsday)

When did scouts begin to get a sense of humor?

This week we are going to look at some of the signings and trades so far in the off-season, and the fantasy impact they will have. I’m not worried about the Brewers sign 14 players to minor league contracts with spring training invites, but the big deals that set the market. But first…

The Rumors
The Red Sox are very serious about signing Roger Clemens, who wasn’t offered arbitration by the Astros. Clemens has said he won’t make a decision on whether he will return until after the New Year…The Orioles and Dodgers are the 2 latest teams to enter the Johnny Damon sweepstakes. The Yankees are also involved, and had recently signed Mike Myers call Damon. The Red Sox are still in the hunt, but Damon said he is reluctant to go back with the front office in turmoil…If Damon leaves Boston, the Red Sox have a deal in place that would send Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo to the Mariners for CFer Jeremy Reed…The Red Sox are still interested in Julio Lugo from Tampa Bay, but may sign Alex Gonzalez instead. The Sox could offer up newly acquired Andy Marte to make a deal go through, but it’s a long shot…The Diamondbacks want to add an outfielder, specifically free agent Juan Encarnacion or Dave Roberts from San Diego; they were interested in Kenny Lofton, but the Dodgers are about to announce he will sign there…The Cubs are close to signing Jacques Jones, to believable a 2 year deal…The Astros are close to making a large deal, with Bobby Abreu’s name attached. There were rumors that they could deal Brad Lidge since they are worried about his stability after a couple of bad playoff appearances…The Nationals and Cubs are talking about a deal that would move Kerry Wood to the Nationals for Jose Vidro and Ryan Chruch…

Also, today is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who have been in the league less than 6 years. Last year, we saw David Eckstein and Wade Miller not offered contracts from their teams. Who will be changing addresses this year?

The Signings
Scott Eyre signs with the Cubs for 3 yrs $11 million – This set the market for reliever signings. Eyre was coming off an impressive season with the Giants, and he wasn’t just a situational lefty. He will play a similar role for the Cubs. This deal changed the previous idea that you could get solid relievers for 2 seasons at $2 per. Not any more.

BJ Ryan signs with the Blue Jays for 5 yrs $47 million – I thought the Eyre signing was crazy, then this happened. While the contract is excessive for a reliever that has spent 1 year as a closer, he has a solid track record. He strikes out something like 11 hitters per 9 innings over his career. His move north of the border should help his stats, since Baltimore catered more towards hitters. Look for a solid season.

Esteban Loaiza signs with the Athletics for 3 yrs $21.4 million – The Loaiza deal was a reward for a good season in a pitchers park. He was the most consistent of the Nationals starters and has been rewarded for it. He will still be a solid pitcher since Oakland is also better for pitchers, but be weary when the team plays in Texas.

Bob Howry signs with the Cubs for 3 yrs $12 million – Howry is in the same boat as Eyre. The contract is surprising, but he should thank Eyre, as should every other set-up man in the league. He will be solid in the pen, and could get some saves if Ryan Dempster falters. He would be great if you league counts holds.

Billy Wagner signs with the Mets for 4 yrs $43 million w/ a club option – This deal makes a little more sense than the Ryan deal, but Wagner will be nearing the end of his career when the deal ends, so you have to wonder if/when he will break down. Wagner is one of the top 5 relievers in baseball, so he is still a solid option. Add in the fact that he is going to a park that is the opposite of the hitters parks he been at, he will let up very few runs.

Abraham Nunez signs with the Phillies for 2 yrs $3.35 million – Nunez came out of nowhere to impress fans in St. Louis and has been rewarded for it; just by a different team. Nunez, who came into the Cardinals as a utility player, took over the everyday third base job when Scott Rolen was hurt. With the Phillies, Nunez will be in the utility role unless David Bell is unloaded. Bell is a free agent after the season, so Nunez will move to full time then. He’s worth passing on this year.

Paul Konerko re-signs with the White Sox for 5 yrs $60 million – The main goal for the White Sox was to re-sign their All Star first baseman. They achieved that by underbidding the competition. The Orioles and the Angels both offered more, but Konerko liked it in Chicago better. He should put up similar numbers, but look for the decline to start before the end of the contract.

Kyle Farnsworth signs with the Yankees for 3 yrs $17 million – Another reliever, another large contract. This is actually a signing I don’t like. Farnsworth couldn’t cut it with the pressure of the Cubs fans, so what makes him think he can do it in New York. I see his ERA and WHIP increasing. He loses fantasy value since he won’t be closing anymore, but he will get holds.

Brian Giles re-signs with the Padres for 3 yrs $30 million – While his power has decreased since he came to the Padres, Giles can still get on base. He is a decent source of hits, but he is getting overpaid. His numbers should look like last years, but he is nearing the end of his career.

Tom Gordon signs with the Phillies for 3 yrs $18 million – Flash has been terrific in New York as the set-up guy, so the jump to closing shouldn’t be too tough. He has experience as a closer, but Phillie Fans shouldn’t expect Wagner number. He will be a decent option as a closer.

Paul Byrd signs with the Indians for 2 yrs $14.25 million – Byrd has been a solid, underrated pitcher for the past couple of seasons. He will now move to the front end of the Rotation (#2-3) with the Indians. With as much as some starts have been paid, the Indians got a deal for a consistent workhorse. He will be a solid option in most fantasy leagues.

AJ Burnett signs with the Blue Jays for 5 yrs $55 million – This deal is ridiculous. Burnett is a sub-.500 pitcher (48-50) who has had injury problems. His splits show he doesn’t pitch well outside of Florida. I see him breaking down before the contract is over. He is a decent fantasy option, but don’t expect ace numbers.

Trevor Hoffman re-signs with the Padres for 2 yrs $13.5 million w/ an option – Hoffman is one of the most reliable closers in baseball. The Padres did the right thing by keeping him; they did even better by only giving him 2 years guaranteed. He is nearing the end, but as long as he keeps doing what he is doing, he will be solid. He is a must in all fantasy leagues.

Rafael Furcal signs with the Dodgers for 3 yrs $39 million – Furcal provides good defense and a top of the order bat that the Dodgers need in their weakened offense. They offered a shorter deal than the rest, but offered more money, which could have been real smart. Only time will tell on that. Furcal is still a solid fantasy option in 5×5 leagues, but his power will slip since he is moving to a tougher park.

Jose Mesa signs with the Rockies for 1 yr $2.5 million w/ a club option – They didn’t need a closer, especially one who is on the decline. He has struggled the last half of the season, and should continue in the thin air. I would avoid him at all costs.

Kenny Rogers signs with the Tigers for 2 yrs $16 million and Todd Jones signs with the Tigers for 2 yrs $11 million – The Tigers need veteran help, and these 2 should provide it. Rogers had a great season when he wasn’t causing problems. He should pitch better leaving the Launching Pad in Dallas and coming to a pitchers park. Jones resurrected his career with the Marlins and stabilized their bullpen. He will be closing in Detroit, but will also be mentoring Fernando Rodney, closer in training. The best part of these signing is they are only for 2 seasons, so they could easily be moved next year.

Matt Morris signs with the Giants for 3 yrs $27 million – I like this signing because Morris can still be a solid pitcher and he was signed at market value. I know they are hoping for the Morris of 2001, but he still can be a decent #2-3 starter. His number should look better, since the Giants stadium caters more to pitchers. He will be a solid fantasy option this year.

Julio Franco signs with the Mets for 2 yrs $2.2 million – As you see in the quote at the top, scouts are puzzled by this signing. Franco will be a pinch hitter and a back up to Carlos Delgado. They could have gotten someone younger and cheaper to do this. Franco is not to be used in fantasy baseball.

Ramon Hernandez signs with the Orioles for 4 yrs $27.5 million – Hernandez will take over catching from Javy Lopez, who will DH and play first base. Hernandez has been a solid catcher for a few seasons now. He will have a better time hitting in Baltimore than he did in San Diego, so look for a slight increase in his stats. He is one of the better catching options in fantasy baseball.

Billy Mueller signs with the Dodgers for 2 yrs $9.5 million – The Dodgers continue to rebuild their team, and add a solid player. Third Base was open most of the season, so adding a former batting champ is a definite up-grade. Mueller should have solid numbers and could be a good late round pick up.

Tony Batista signs with the Twins for 1 yr $1.25 million – The Twins are so desparate for help, they agree to bring Batista back to the U.S. Batista spent last season in Japan after not getting any decent offers as a free agent. He will be better than Michael Cuddyer was last year, but he will not be a top of the line third baseman. He could be a decent sleeper though.

Braden Looper signs with the Cardinals for 3 yrs $13.5 million – Looper played his way out of the closer role with his second team. With the Cardinals, he will take over Julian Tavarez’s role as the primary set-up guy getting the occasional save. As a set-up man in the past, Looper has done well. The move will diminish his value, but he should be solid in roto leagues (especially if you get holds).

Mark Grudzielanek signs with the Royals for 1 yr $4 million – Grudzielanek will move across state to try to play for next years deal. He wanted a 3-year deal from a contending club, but no one was willing to offer it. He will play this year to get at least a 2-year deal after the season. He is not a highly recommended fantasy option, but is worth watching for his normal hot-streaks.

Nomar Garciaparra signs with the Dodgers for 1 yr $6 million – Nomar decided to stay close to his home. He will be the starting first baseman for the Dodgers, but could move to the outfield by mid-season (due to Cesar Izturis returning from the DL). It is a solid signing, since it has a low base and is incentive driven. Nomar, if healthy, should be a good fantasy option, since he will qualify at multiple positions.

The Trades
The Marlins trade Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota to the Red Sox for prospects Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, and Harvey Garcia – The first of the many dumps for the Marlins, who lost $25 million last season. In return for a promising pitcher, a decent reliever, and a declining third baseman, they got a prospect who star is dwindling, and 3 pitching prospects. Ramirez hasn’t taken his game to the next level since he has moved to the higher minors. He should be the starting shortstop, so we will see how he does. Anibal Sanchez could be a great pitcher, but many find it hard to predict what pitching prospects can do. Overall, the Marlins could have gotten more. On the flip side, Beckett doesn’t have impressive splits, so the move to Boston could do more harm than help. Lowell should be able to rebound from a bad season with the move. He will be starting at third for the Sox. Mota helps in the pen, but he won’t have much of an impact.

The Phillies trade Jim Thome to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand and prospects Daniel Haigwood and Gio Gonzalez – One thing you rarely see is a World Champion change their team much, and, outside of a few Yankees teams, you don’t see them repeat. This trade could go either way: if Thome is healthy, the trade will be great on both ends. The White Sox could get a power bat that they missed for part of the season. He is going from one hitters park to another, so look for the same type of stats. The Phillies get a centerfielder who is young and affordable, but 2 pitching prospects. Rowand is a great defensive player, but struggled last year with the bat. He started to rebound at the end of the year. I think the move will help put him back on track.

The Marlins trade Carlos Delgado to the Mets for Mike Jacobs, prospects Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas, and cash – The Mets got their man, a year after they wanted him. In return, the Marlins get their new first baseman, one of the top pitching prospects in the game, a solid OF prospect and cash. Delgado was critical of the Mets last off-season because they were using Central American players as marketing. Now, that doesn’t bother him. The ballparks are similar, so his number should stay in the same area, if not improve because of the better team. Jacobs was showing potential at the end of the season, but it could have been that period where player plays awesome after they are called up. Once they have been around for a month or so, the fall of since most of the teams have seen them. Petit will be solid for the Marlins when he gets called up by mid-season. Psomas was a throw-in to get the deal done.

The Cubs trade prospect Jermaine Van Buren to the Red Sox for a PTBNL – I threw this deal in since the Cubs gave away the guy that led the system in saves last year. He would have been a handy and inexpensive bullpen piece, especially if Ryan Dempster returns to the pitcher he was.

The Marlins trade Luis Castillo to the Twins for prospects Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler – The Twins added one of the better available second basemen for much cheaper than he would have been on the open market. Castillo is a definite upgrade over the multiple players that the Twins plugged in last year, including the Bret Boone Experiment. Castillo should see a small increase in production, moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. The only problem is he hits a lot of ground balls that will either get to the gaps quicker on the turf, or get to the fielder quicker and cutting out some of his infield singles. Bowyer and Tyler are decent pitchers, but didn’t figure into Twins future. Bowyer could be the closer this year to for the Marlins. Tyler will probably spend a season in the Minors before adding anything to the team.

The Marlins trade Paul LoDuca to the Mets for prospects Gaby Hernandez and Dante Brinkley – This time, the Marlins got the better end of a deal. The Mets give up another top pitching prospect, but this time for a washed up catcher. LoDuca burst on the season with the Dodgers, but the flaw in his game is he can never put up a full, good season. Every year he starts out strong, but dies off or gets hurt after the All Star break. Look for the same. Neither of the prospects involved will play in the Majors this season, but Hernandez could be ready for the next year.

The Cardinals trade Ray King to the Rockies for Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles – After King complained about not being used in the playoffs, it became pretty apparent that he wouldn’t be back. The Rockies get a situational left hander that had problems getting lefties out. Bigbie still has the opportunity to show what he has, but the Rockies weren’t willing to wait. He could be a starter, but he could also platoon with John Rodriguez. Miles will be the platoon partner with Hector Luna unless the Cardinals bring in a second baseman. Neither will be solid options next season.

The Brewers trade Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim to the Blue Jays for Gabe Gross, Dave Bush, and prospect Zach Jackson – Once Carlos Delgado was moved, Overbay became the top first baseman available; it’s kind of sad since he doesn’t have the power the typical first baseman has. He will help the team’s defense, and will provide some help with On Base Percentage. Milwaukee receives a promising starter in Bush, who could be slotting into the rotation this year. Gross had an impressive spring training, but didn’t do much during the season (while he was in the Majors). He will be a back up if he makes the roster. Jackson is the high point of the deal, as he is a high ceiling prospects.

The Giants trade LaTroy Hawkins and cash to the Orioles for Steve Kline – This was a deal to move some disappointing relievers. Neither really have any value, unless Hawkins would closer for the Orioles; even then, he doesn’t have much value based on his track record.

The Braves trade Dan Kolb to the Brewers for Wes Obermueller – The Brewers got back their former closer for a disappointing pitcher. Kolb moved to the Braves last season to be their closer, and failed miserably at it. He was sent to the minor and became expendable when the team decided to go another way. He is expected to be non-tendered today, unless a deal can be worked out. Obermueller was supposed to be a great pitching prospect but never developed. He was thrown in the deal since Kolb could still be a decent pitcher, and the Braves wanted something to show that they traded Jose Capellan for Kolb originally.

The Devil Rays trade Dewon Brazelton to the Padres for Sean Burroughs – The Devil Rays and Padres decided to switch former prospects to see if the change in scenery would help. Brazelton, a former 1st round pick, could definitely feel the effect of the trade. He goes to a hitter’s park and a pretty good defense behind him. He could be a sleeper this season. Burroughs could be in the same boat, since he will go from a pitcher’s park to a neutral park. He too could be a sleeper.

The Padres trade Mark Loretta to the Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli – The Padres dumped Mark Loretta to clear some payroll to re-sign Trevor Hoffman. While that seems like a good deal, the Padres only saved $1.5 million. The received a back up catcher that will see more opportunites in San Diego than he did in Boston. Loretta should increase his production with the move out of Petco Park. He would be a solid option at second.

The Mariners trade Yorvit Torrealba to the Rockies for Marcos Carvajal – Torrealba is the classic defensive catcher that doesn’t show much with the bat. He also became expendable when the Mariners signed Kenji Jojima. Torrealba was unhappy that he was moving back to a back up role and demanded the trade. He could be a fantasy sleeper this year playing in Colorado. Carvajal was a Rule V pick up last season. He is a reliever and has no fantasy appeal.

The Marlins trade Juan Pierre to the Cubs for Sergio Mitre and prospects Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto – Pierre will do for the Cubs what they wanted out of Corey Patterson. He should see a decent increase in his stats with the move to Wrigley Field. The pitchers the Marlins got could go either way Mitre has shown promise, and maybe the ballpark will help him. Nolasco and Pinto have some time before they get called up.

The Braves trade Johnny Estrada to the Diamondbacks for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal – Estrada became expendable when Brian McCann filled in for him; McCann more than handled the job and will be cheaper. The Diamondbacks had been attached to every available catcher, so it wasn’t surprising they got Estrada. His numbers should increase with the move to the BOB. Cormier and Villareal could be solid arms out of the pen, but we may not find out. With Leo Mazzone gone, bringing in pitchers like this may not work out.

The Reds trade Sean Casey to the Pirates for Dave Williams – The Reds had 5 player for 4 positions for the last 3 years, and now decided to address it. They did the right thing. Adam Dunn will now move to first and the outfield is set at Austin Kearns, Ken Griffey Jr, and Wily Mo Pena. The Pirates didn’t need Casey, whose power is on the decline, since prospect Brad Eldred is ready. Instead, they block him. They gave up William since they have 6 other lefties that can start. The Reds are hurting for pitching and Williams will give them innings.

The Yankees trade Tony Womack to the Reds for prospects Kevin Howard and Ben Himes – Womack became expendable with the emergence of Robinson Cano. In this dump, the Yankees acquired a player that has improved greatly over the last year. Howard had a nice season (which he hadn’t done in a while) and followed it with a very impressive AFL campaign. He should rank pretty highly in the Yankees system. Himes was just added to get the deal done.

The Red Sox trade Edgar Renteria to the Braves for prospect Andy Marte – Very rarely will a team get a top prospect in a dump, but that’s what the Red Sox did. Renteria showed that he wasn’t a top shortstop that everyone thought he was. He had a bad offensive year and led the league in errors (which shows that Scott Rolen’s range at third helped Renteria a lot). Marte was the top prospect in the Braves system, but was block by Chipper Jones. Renteria will continue to look like he did last year, while Marte could be up with the Sox by mid-season.

The Twins trade JC Romero to the Angels for prospect Alexi Casilla – The Twins have been shopping Romero for almost a year, and he wasn’t happy about it. He thought being offered in trades was disrespecting him. He will be the left set-up man for Francisco Rodriguez. Castilla could be an interesting prospect down the line, but he is still too young to tell.

The Phillies trade Vicente Padilla to the Rangers of a PTBNL – The Phillies didn’t want to pay Padilla and the Rangers need pitching help. Not much else to this deal. The Phils will get a low-level prospect in this dump. Padilla has struggled the last few seasons, and this move shouldn’t help him. I would avoid him.

The Rangers trade Alfonso Soriano to the Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge, and prospect Almando Galarraga – The Rangers took their best bargaining chip and used it for players at a position they don’t need. Soriano could have brought the Rangers some young pitching, but instead got good outfielders (which they already have too many of). Soriano will take a hit in his power by moving to RFK Stadium, but he will still be the top second base option in baseball. Wilkerson would be a great addition to the Rangers outfield, but he will be dealt to get pitching. His number should bounce back from his bad season last year. Sledge will be a 4th outfielder for the Rangers. Galarraga is a talented prospect, but still years from being called up.

The Dodgers trade Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez to the Athletics for prospect Andre Ethier – The Dodgers wanted to get rid of their headache and got a decent player in return. Bradley could be a great player if he didn’t upset people everywhere he goes. Perez was a onetime prospect that has bounced around. He had a decent season with the Dodger, but with all of their signings was expendable. Ethier was one of the top outfield prospects in the A’s organization. He is still a season or 2 away, but a good pickup.

The Pirates trade Rob Mackowiak to the White Sox for Damaso Marte – This was a need for need basis. Mackowiak was a spare part that could be played everywhere; the White Sox will use him in the same role. Marte is your basic situational lefty, who played his way out the door in Chicago. Mackowiak is a decent late round pick up since he qualifies almost everywhere. Marte could be passed on.

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