Correctly predicting the winners of NFL playoff games is hard. For example, of the eight games played so far, five of them have been won by the lower seeded, visiting team. Then there was this weekend, where all four games were re-matches of games that had taken place during the regular season. Of those four games, three of them were won by the team that LOST in the regular season meeting.
Yes, my friends, predicting the outcome of NFL playoff games is difficult.
So consider that I have picked the winner (in my Friday preview column) in 7 out of the 8 games played so far, and then consider yourself very intelligent for picking this column to get your NFL Playoff info fix! Hooray for you!
Now that we are all feeling good about ourselves, let’s break down what went down this weekend.
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
REDSKINS 10
SEAHAWKS 20
Why the Seahawks Advanced
There’s only one number you need to look at to figure out where to toss the rose bouquets for this win. That number is 2.4. Is that my college GPA? No, it’s the yards per rush the Redskins had in this game.
Lost in the hype surrounding Shaun Alexander’s record setting season was the fact that Seattle’s big improvement has come primarily on the defensive side of the ball. Only the Carolina Panthers ranked higher than the Hawks in run defense among NFC teams this year.
That run defense was on display in this game. Clinton Portis was turned into a complete non-factor. Without a running game, Mark Brunell was forced to pass 37 times, the Redskins were unable to keep the Seahawks’ defense off-balance, and were unable to generate points.
Offensively, a lot went wrong for Seattle in this game. They lost the NFL MVP (Alexander) early in the game with a concussion, and they fumbled 5 times, losing 3 of them. Fortunately for Seattle though, the defense was there to save the day, and we still have one #1 seed left in the playoffs.
Why the Redskins Are Done
Of course, the flipside to the Redskins being held to 2.4 yards a carry is that a lot of the responsibility for that lies with the Redskins.
The Redskins finished this season the same way they started it, with an ineffective offense. They managed to somehow beat the Bucs in the wildcard round despite generating only 120 yards of total offense. They weren’t quite that bad on Saturday against Seattle, but they weren’t nearly good enough to win.
This team has a lot of work to do in the off-season if they are to emerge from the rugged NFC East and return to the playoffs. Was Mark Brunell’s resurgence this year a one-time thing, or will he continue to reverse what seemed to be the inevitable decline of his career? If he is ineffective or injured, both of which are distinct possibilities, can Patrick Ramsey lead this team?
Finally, whoever is quarterbacking the team next year will need more options for people to throw the ball to than Brunell had this year. The Redskins somehow functioned with one viable wide receiver this year, Santana Moss. He needs a complement so that defenses have more to think about than how to stop Santana Moss. The offense has two really good skill position players right now in Moss and Portis. Can one more take this team to the next level?
One Giant Leap for the Seahawks
PATRIOTS 13
BRONCOS 27
Why the Broncos Advanced
Who would have thought that the robotic, Big Blue Killing Machine that the New England Patriots have been in this decade would self-destruct so spectacularly in their first playoff loss?
To look at the Broncos’ stat line for this game, you wouldn’t have guessed that they came out of this one victorious. They gave up 420 yards of total offense, an average of 7.4 yards per play. They didn’t have any sacks. They didn’t run for over 100 yards as a team. They were 4 of 14 on third down conversions. In short, they didn’t play very well.
But, the two time defending champs, the team that doesn’t make mistakes, turned the ball over FIVE times in this game, and it made all the difference. Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk and Ellis Hobbs each lost fumbles. Faulk’s fumble led to a 40 yard pass interference penalty on Asante Samuel which set up a Mike Anderson TD run with a little over a minute left in the first half. Hobbs then fumbled the ensuing kickoff, which led to a Jason Elam field goal at the end of the half. So the Patriots went from being up 3-0 and having the ball with a little over two minutes remaining in the half, to trailing 10-3 going into the locker room.
Then, as has been well documented, Champ Bailey intercepted Tom Brady in the end zone, and took it back to the Patriots 1 yard line, turning what would have been at least a 10-9 Broncos lead into a 17-6 Broncos lead. Bailey fumbled the ball on return, and maybe the fumble went out of the end zone, and maybe the correct call should have been a touchback. But none of that changes the fact that Tom Brady got picked off in the end zone, and nobody expects that to happen.
Why the Patriots Are Done
Number one, as I discussed above, turnovers killed them. You can’t turn the ball over five times on the road in the playoffs and expect to have any chance to win.
Aside from the turnovers, the running game was very ineffective. Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk combined for 80 yards on 20 carries. That’s an average of 4 yards a carry, which isn’t too bad, but why only 20 carries? Part of the reason the Patriots turned the ball over so often was because their playcalling was weighted towards the pass by almost a 2:1 ratio. Yes, the Broncos ranked 29th in the NFL in pass defense, and yes, Brady threw for 341 yards in this game, but the heavy reliance on the pass created opportunities for mistakes. It was the mistakes that cost the Patriots their season.
The running back situation is one the Patriots will have to address in 2006. Corey Dillon was either hurt, complaining, ineffective, or all three for most of this season. He seems to have worn out his welcome just like he did in Cincinnati. If the Patriots had more faith in their running backs, maybe Brady doesn’t have to throw to get the Pats in the end zone, maybe Champ Bailey doesn’t make an interception and take it back to the 1 yard line, and maybe we get a different result in this game.
Champ KO’s the Champs
STEELERS 21
COLTS 18
Why the Steelers Advanced
The Steelers had a phenomenal defensive game plan. They watched the film of the Chargers beating the Colts back in Week 15, and they applied the same principles that worked in that game. They blitzed Peyton Manning relentlessly, put pressure on him and did not give the Colts time to develop downfield routes.
The results speak for themselves. Manning was sacked 5 times, and the Colts were 3 for 13 on third down conversions. Fingers were pointed, offensive linemen were blamed, and the Colts were reduced to looking like a confused team.
On offense, the Steelers were good when they had to be. They didn’t run the ball very well, averaging only 2.7 yards per carry. But they were 6 for 14 on third downs, allowing them to keep the chains moving. The Steelers, unlike some other teams (BEARS COUGH COUGH), made a firm commitment to running the ball and stuck with it. They carried 42 times, had almost a 10 minute advantage in time of possession, and kept the Colts offense off the field.
Why the Colts Are Done
With one minute remaining in the game, the Steelers had the ball at the Colts’ 2 yard line. The game was over. Then, the unthinkable happened and Jerome Bettis fumbled. Nick Harper scooped up the ball and ran it back to the Indy 42. Two plays later, the Colts had moved the ball down to the Steelers’ 28, and had second and two, and timeouts remaining.
Rather than try to move the ball in closer and ensure a game tying field goal to send the game into OT, the Colts took two shots downfield, both of which were incomplete. That left Mike Vanderjagt with a 48 yard field goal attempt, which he missed badly. Now the game really was over, and the Colts still had 2 timeouts left.
The Colts had every opportunity to move the ball closer than 48 yards. They could have run the ball, and made it a 40 yard field goal. They could have thrown a route over the middle, and made it a 35 yard field goal. They could have done just about anything, because they had two time outs. Instead, they played like they had no time outs. Someone screwed up, and that someone is Tony Dungy.
Clock management is on the coaching staff. The Colts completely mismanaged the last 31 seconds of this game. Tony Dungy runs a great program. He ran a great program in Tampa Bay, and he has run a great program in Indianapolis. But, as a single game coach, not so much. He’s now 5-8 in the playoffs, and he is now coach of a team that should have been to a Super Bowl by now, but hasn’t been yet.
How long is that acceptable for?
This One Really Hurts
PANTHERS 29
BEARS 21
Why the Panthers Advanced
Steve Smith.
Steve Smith.
More Steve Smith.
The Panthers all-everything wide receiver, who missed all of last season with a broken leg, single handedly killed the Bears on Sunday.
He caught 12 passes for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He took a reverse 22 yards on a key play late in the game.
He caught a 58 yard TD pass on the second play of the game.
He ripped the ball away from Bears’ CB Charles Tillman for a 46 yard gain to set up a field goal.
Based on what he’s done in the playoffs, and especially what he did in this game, he’s the best player remaining in the playoffs. Because of him, the Panthers just might be able to beat any of the teams still playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
Why the Bears Are Done
Let me throw some stats at you…
QB #1
Career Stats
54.6% completion percentage
16 TD
19 INT
67.7 passer rating
QB #2
Career Stats
51.5% completion percentage
5 TD
7 INT
66.3 passer rating
One of these is Rex Grossman, the other is Cade Mcnown. Tell me again why Rex Grossman is good.
Now, in the same breath, tell me why the Bears, who have a guy that rushed for 1300 yards this year, elected to have QB #2 throw the ball FORTY ONE TIMES????
Does your brain hurt yet? Well, hold on, because I have another question for you. How do you not once, but twice, leave single coverage with no safety help on a guy that already has hung 169 receiving yards on you once this year? How do you have some guy named Chris Thompson covering him in the third quarter of a playoff game where the score is 16-14? How???
Quite simply put, the Bears came out for this game with one of the most ridiculous gameplans I’ve ever seen. They came out and did the exact opposite of everything that made them successful, and it failed miserably.
Lovie Smith deserves to have his Coach of the Year award revoked for this.
All…Day….Long
DEEZ IS GEEZ
Nobody on IP Sports feels like writin lately.
Except for Patrick N., who is always great.
That’ll do it for the Divisional Playoffs. See you back this weekend when I’ll preview the NFC and AFC Championship games!
